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Oopsy daisy… The ES opened 32 points lower and sold off down to 6632.00 not long after the open. This came after the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the U.S. economy grew a surprising 3.8% from April to June — that was the good news. The bad news? Budget negotiations in Washington aren't making progress and could be heading toward a shutdown.

After the low, the ES slowly traded back up to 6662.50 at 2:39, dipped to 6651.50 at 3:36, started to go bid, and traded up to 6658.75 at 3:51 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $730 million to sell. It traded up to 6660.50 on the 4:00 cash close and settled at 6662.00 on the 5:00 futures close, down 30 points or -0.45. The NQ closed at 24632.25 down 0.43% from the previous day, and the 10-year note yield posted a 3-week high, finishing up +2 bps to 4.17%.

In the end, continued selling tied to quarter-end and higher yields weighed on the index markets. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, they were weak but did stage a decent bounce late in the day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was high at 1.635 million contracts traded.

ESZ25 Net Changes — Up 3 / Down 3 over the Last 6

After all the chop, the ES has been up 3 and down 3 in the last 6 sessions. I know this may seem very basic, but after all the noise this week, the ES is actually up 1 point net over the last 6 sessions. If you think the selling is severe, then you’d better look back to September 2, when the ES settled at 6480.75.

I asked my chat if anyone knew how big the end-of-quarter rebalance was, and DBH said $38 billion. Now, that’s not the type of number you just unload on the last session of the quarter — it’s just too big. So, what do they do? They start selling the week before.

Does that mean the selling is over and the ES and NQ are going back up? It could, but the more likely scenario is that we see more two-way price action — rally and drop, or drop and rally. I remember the desk always got busy the week before quarter-end, and like some of the big quarterly expirations, there was huge volume being printed.

Again, the reason I do things like this is because a lot of people just listen to CNBC or some other boob-tube channel that’s always crying wolf. They hype up everything, which conditions people into thinking “it’s going to be bad”, and by the time the event occurs, the markets take off.

Are we there now? We have three full trading days left and while we did see some tech and AI stocks firm up, most of the late buying looked like a small short squeeze to run some weak shorts out, then pull back. Bottom line: The rebalance selling could continue to put pressure on the index markets, but will also be met with spurts of buying.

The reason I’ve stepped up my commentary about the 3:50 imbalance is because:

1. They keep buying.

2. The ES and NQ keep going up.

The last hour is the most important part of the session. Most of the time, if the ES and NQ are acting firm late in the day and start going bid after 3:50, it probably means a buy imbalance is coming. If it’s big and broad, the futures generally act in kind and rally.

Once the imbalance data is posted, and you can see all the sector imbalances and the amounts companies bought or sold, if a few big companies making up $400-$600 million shares or more, that also tends to signal the direction of the 4:00 cash close. There’s usually residual buying after the imbalance hits.

We’re working on a closing MIM algo that will be coded in Python. I think this data will show a lot of things I already know, but could help filter out the days not to go long.

Oh boy… it’s 7:47 PM and Trump just did another tariff tantrum, announcing sweeping tariffs on various household products:

• 25% on trucks

• 50% on imported kitchen cabinets

• 30% on upholstered furniture (Potentially adding more costs to a category that has already surged in recent months.)

• Heavy truck and pharmaceutical tariffs

Guest Posts:

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

Futures are flat, as are vols, with PCE at 8:30 AM ET. Upside positive gamma into 6,650 is resistance for today. To the downside if 6,600 is broken we look for a quick test of 6,680. <6,680 is open to 6,500.

Dynamics are generally unchanged from that of recent notes (oddities in vol complex on Monday AM, and yesterday AM) which may recent with SPX positional clearing on 9/30. This, in turn, may open equities up to a trap door into October. Under 6,500 after 9/30 is where we lean much more favorably into this scenario.

As long as SPX holds >=6,600 then bulls still have the rains. That said, a pullback to 6,500 into 9/30 makes sense given the massive 6,505 strike gamma. Nothing says we have to test 6,500 into 9/30 - its just that testing that level would make sense based on hedging flows. If 6,500 were to happen into 9/30, we would adjust our risk pivot to 6,500, meaning we would re-position long while SPX >6,500.

Playing devils advocate on the side of bulls, the longer dated 14-16% IV/VIX could easily contract after 9/30 which would provide a boost for stocks.

Boiling all the dynamics/verbiage above into a simple chart based on time & price:

We can't help here but to note the crypto complex, which is under pressure (candle chart = BTC). As you can see, BTC has a habit of leading SPX, and there is definitely a bearish divergence here...

Get instant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

MiM and Daily Recap

The S&P 500 futures (ES) closed Thursday’s trade modestly lower after a volatile overnight and regular session that saw both sharp downside momentum and late-day stabilization. The full session settled at 6662.00, down 35.25 points or -0.53% from Wednesday’s close, with total combined volume reaching 1.63 million contracts.

Overnight trade began with strength, lifting from 6686.50 at 18:20 to a Globex high of 6705.25 at 21:59. That rally of 18.75 points (+0.28%) was short-lived as sellers emerged. The decline accelerated, driving the contract to 6653.75 by 03:10, and ultimately to a Globex low of 6653.25  just before the regular session open. That marked a sharp 74-point reversal from the high, or -1.10%.

The cash session opened at 6660.00 and immediately tested the morning low at 6631.25. Buyers stepped in, lifting the ES to 6672.50 at 10:20, a 41.25-point bounce (+0.62%). Momentum carried further, with a mid-morning push to 6675.00 at 11:40, the day’s regular-session high. From there, momentum again faltered. The contract dropped to 6655.25 at 11:25, attempted another rally, but was met with renewed selling into the early afternoon.

By 14:00, the ES had sunk to a session low of 6624.25, down 50.75 points (-0.76%) from the late-morning high. Another intraday recovery developed, climbing back to 6662.50 at 14:40, before choppy two-way trade set in. The final hours saw a modest recovery to 6660.00  into the close, finishing the cash session  unchanged from the open but down -31 points (0.47%) from the previous cash close. The full day settlement was at 6662.00 on the 5:00 PM futures print.

By sessions, Globex ended down -37.25 points (-0.56%), while the cash session managed to close flat, up just 0.50 points (+0.01%) from the open. The cleanup session added a marginal gain of 1.50 points. The key metric, cash-to-cash ($C–C), showed a 31.50-point decline (-0.47%), setting the tone of a mild continuation pullback.

Market tone was defensive throughout the day, characterized by sharp overnight weakness and repeated intraday sell programs. Buyers were present but struggled to maintain momentum, with each rally being capped quickly by renewed pressure. The MOC imbalance data reinforced this bearish bias. The 3:50 read a small -$682M to sell, with -56.3% of dollar flow and -54.5% of symbol flow tilted to the sell side. While not above the ±66% extreme threshold, the negative tilt weighed on sentiment and prevented a stronger late-day recovery.

Sector breakdown showed selling concentrated in Technology, Financials, and Healthcare, with notable negative imbalances in Oracle (-111.9M), Adobe (-124.2M), and AbbVie (-140.7M). On the other side, semiconductors (NVDA +175.8M, MU +92.3M, AVGO +80.7M) and mega-cap consumer names like AMZN (+155.2M) helped offset some of the broad pressure but could not reverse the overall tone.

Overall, the day leaned bearish despite intraday rebounds, with sellers continuing to control the broader tape. The ES closed modestly below Wednesday’s levels, suggesting that resistance remains firm near the 6700–6710 zone, while support at 6620–6630 held firm into the close. Heading into Friday, traders will watch if support can sustain a base, or if further downside momentum develops with macro catalysts still in focus.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for September 26, 2025

• SP: 53.23

• NQ: 227.77

• Dow: 307.31

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, September 25, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 32% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 27% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 25% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 26% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 44 / 72
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 96 / 123
• NYSE TRIN: 0.69
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.44

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, September 19, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 364 / 76
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 805 / 187
• NYSE TRIN: 0.81
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.88

Calendars

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This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Full Calendars

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Thursday, September 25, 2025

Thursday’s session was a tactical, highly technical day with great adherence to process, strong educational insights, and multiple high-probability setups—particularly around well-defined levels like 6655 and 6625. Both Manny and PTGDavid provided real-time trade guidance supported by clock timing, order flow, and structure.

Key Levels and Setups:

• Support Focus:
  Early in the session, ES 6655 was highlighted as a key support zone by Manny and confirmed by David as a convergence of multiple signals (Zero Gamma, CD2 Violation Level, Fib Cluster, Money Box, Target Master T3).
  → Lesson: Multiple confluences increase level reliability.

• Squeeze Setup:
  Manny pointed to a potential squeeze long if ES could hold 6710–6715, with targets up to 6745.
  → This setup didn’t materialize in the morning due to failed reclaim of the 6700-6705 zone.

• Clock Timing Windows:
  Manny introduced his “Clock” study and gave specific pivot windows:

  • 11:15–11:50: LOW window → Correctly anticipated

  • 12:30–1:00: HIGH pivot

  • 2:00–2:45: LOW pivot → Lined up well with the A4 long from 6630

  • 3:30: Final HIGH window

  → Result: The clock played out beautifully, offering precision on long and short timing. Big educational win for the room.

Successful Trades and Highlights:

• Morning Short:

  • 6655 Breakdown → Continuation to 6647-6646 (Target hit)

  • OR Targets 1 & 2 hit early in the session.

  • Lesson: Discipline on short setups when bulls failed the overnight reclaim of 6700.

• Late Morning Reclaim:

  • 11:30 Clock Pivot → Manny noted the reclaim of 6660+ and held a runner to 76 for a 40-point winner.

  • Trigger: A10 model

  • Quote: “Not every day we nail a 40 pointer.”

  • Lesson: Trusting process and being prepared pays off.

• Afternoon Sell & Buyback:

  • Sell at 6662 using A4 into expected 2:30 low pivot, then

  • Buyback at 6630–6631 reclaim, though Manny passed on new risk.

  • David called it: "D-Level 6625 proved itself"

  → This was a textbook Cycle Day 2 play: tag the extreme violation level and recover.

Educational Insights & Lessons:

• Process Over Profits:
  Manny and others emphasized sticking to a repeatable process and aligning entries with structure and timing windows.

• The Power of the Clock Study:

  • Huge value for timing entries and exits.

  • Manny will teach more on this in future sessions.

  • Quote: "The market moves fast... hard to type it all."

• Adding to Winners & Trade Management:
  Discussion around emotional discipline, automation, and the idea of not pressing after a solid day.
  → “Why press it? Enjoy the ‘W’.”

• Community Learning:
  Shout-out to John B for sharing his note-taking process—applauded by the room and praised by Manny.

Challenges & Observations:

• Failed Bull Attempts:

  • Bulls failed to reclaim 6700 in the morning.

  • The 11:35 bullish attempt was the best shot but got sold into.

  • Post-12:30 failed to push for the SPX gap fill → Seen as not bullish.

• Market Nuance:

  • Heavy volume, large money movement made “middle” trades difficult.

  • Manny was cautious not to press or chase.

Closing Thoughts:

• Price closed inside Mid-VWAP zone with a firm bid into the close despite a $730M MOC sell imbalance.

• Final high pivot played out around 3:30, aligning with clock expectations.

• Focus now shifts to Capital Preservation Friday.

Key Takeaways:

• Trust the process; good preparation yields confidence.

• Clock timing added exceptional precision.

• Manny’s 40-pointer was a highlight—entered on structure and signal, exited into strength.

• Consistency and journaling (John B’s example) help in decision-making and confidence building.

• Don’t overtrade. Recognize when you’ve won and step aside.

Another strong day for the PTG room — a mix of trade precision, process focus, and community-driven insight.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!!

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