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Our Lean: Buy the Pullbacks, But Watch 6500 Resistance
Danny Riley
September 08, 2025
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MiM and Daily Recap
The ES began the overnight Globex session at 6515.75 and traded steadily higher into the early morning. At 2:30 AM, futures reached 6531.00, marking a 15.25-point advance. Sellers pushed back shortly after, dragging the contract down to 6519.25 at 3:30 AM. A recovery lifted prices to 6527.50 by 4:30 AM before fading again, with another dip to 6521.25 at 6:00 AM. The deepest overnight decline came at 8:30 AM when the August jobs numbers were released; the ES fell to 6502.50, a 24-point drop from the prior high. Buyers then mounted a strong recovery, carrying the market up to the Globex high of 6540.50 into the cash open. Globex closed at 6533.75, up 18.00 points (+0.28%), with a session volume of 201,434 contracts.
The regular session opened at 6533.50 and carried ES back up to 6541.75 at 9:45 AM, setting an early high of the day. Sellers gained control. A steep selloff drove ES to 6452.00 at 11:10 AM, down nearly 90 points (-1.37%) from the high. A modest rebound followed, with a lower high set at 6488.00 at 11:40 AM. After bouncing to 6471.00 at 12:35 PM, ES pressed back up to 6484.25 at 1:20 PM, but another push lower took the contract to 6464.75 by 1:40 PM. A recovery in the afternoon lifted ES to 6493.00 at 3:20 PM, but this late rally failed to hold, and the futures settled at 6491.00, down 42.50 points (-0.65%) on the day. Regular session volume reached 1,388,893 contracts.
The cleanup session was muted, with ES trading between 6490.75 and 6485.25 before closing at 6488.75, off 2.00 points. The full session netted a loss of 27.00 points (-0.41%) versus the prior day’s settlement, closing at 6488.75.
Market Tone & Notable Factors
The overall tone was bearish, with early strength in both Globex and the regular session met with persistent selling pressure. Despite a sharp morning rally, the failure to hold above 6540.00 marked exhaustion, and the subsequent series of lower highs reinforced the downside bias. Volume was solid, with more than 1.63 million contracts traded across sessions, reflecting strong participation as the market repositioned ahead of the upcoming Fed decision.
The Market-on-Close imbalance data showed a $1.449 billion buy imbalance at 3:50 PM, with 64.9% of the flow on the buy side. While the imbalance leaned toward buyers, the symbol distribution was 58.8% buy to sell, falling short of the ±66% threshold for an extreme signal. The buying interest briefly lifted ES into the 3:20 PM high of 6493.00, but the follow-through was weak, and prices settled slightly lower into the close.
In summary, the ES ended the day under pressure, with sellers overpowering the rallies and leaving the contract modestly lower. The action reflected a cautious and defensive tone, with participants reluctant to extend risk ahead of macro catalysts. The coming sessions may hinge on whether buyers can defend the 6450–6460 support band or if renewed selling drives ES toward deeper retracements.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 8, 2025:
SP: 6.76
NQ: 31.02
Dow: 35.99
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, September 5, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 69% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 201 / 17
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 309 / 122
NYSE TRIN: 1.20
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.63
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending September 5, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 60% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 274 / 49
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 442 / 264
NYSE TRIN: 1.35
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.76
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Room Summaries:
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Friday, September 5, 2025
Overview of the Day
Friday’s trading session delivered on its “FRYday” hype, offering clean setups, decisive market moves, and plenty of profitable opportunities for prepared traders. A weaker-than-expected NFP report ignited volatility that was expertly navigated by the PTG team. Both bullish and bearish scenarios played out with precision, making this a day where planning and execution aligned perfectly. Strong community interaction rounded out a highly productive week.
Pre-Market and Setup
Manny outlined multiple long setups, including ES 6501–6511 support and deeper support near ES 6471–6476
Reclaim long setup noted at ES 6458–6461, with targets as high as 6511
PTGDavid emphasized bullish scenario continuation above ES 6510 with targets at 6525–6530
NFP came in at 22K vs 75K expected, setting up a volatile open and triggering actionable trade signals
Bullish Trade Execution
Continuation long-triggered post-NFP with average entry around ES 6510
Target zone at ES 6540s hit for +30 handles
Trade followed pre-market plan precisely and was executed with discipline
Market confirmed a “3-Day Super Cycle” as mentioned by PTGDavid
Manny locked in gains and left runners in place, calling it early: “Love it when a plan comes together”
Bearish Setup and Follow-Through
After the pop, price reversed on “sell the news” reaction
Open Range Shorts activated under ES 6510 with fulfillment of all downside targets
Breakdown short setup from Thursday evening validated with precise follow-through
ES dropped to 6470s zone, aligned with gamma clusters and fib support
Clean intraday reversal gave traders opportunities on both sides of the market
Key Levels and Gamma Influence
Gamma levels at ES 6546 and 6471 were highly respected throughout the session
Traders responded to combo put wall zones and shifting gamma structure intraday
Fib cluster support zones helped traders gauge target zones and reversal areas with precision
Lessons and Trader Development
David emphasized avoiding trades “against the MB” without reversal structure
Traders reminded that trading is not about guessing — structure and confirmation matter
Manny and DanV discussed the importance of MAE/MFE and methodical system testing
DanV recommended starting with 100 manual backtest trades, then 100 forward-tested trades
Manny noted that even minor changes like switching to micros can significantly alter performance
Community Engagement
High-quality interaction and Q&A around system building, execution, and strategy validation
Multiple traders shared insights about manual testing, tracking edge cases, and adapting systems
Manny and others provided tools and resources like Journalytix for performance tracking
Members like John B, Roy, DanV, and Bruce F contributed to a thoughtful and focused discussion
End-of-Week Reflection
Market offered well-defined opportunities both long and short
Rhythms much improved from late August chop, providing better trend structure
Manny and David both emphasized the importance of sticking to plan over chasing trades
Traders expressed appreciation for the clarity of levels and strength of setups
David signed off with a reminder to “Learn and Earn,” reinforcing the PTG philosophy
Summary
A powerful finish to the trading week with accurate levels, actionable setups, and sharp execution
Traders were rewarded for their discipline, preparation, and commitment to process
PTG’s strategy and structure once again proved effective across multiple market conditions
