OpEx Speed Bump Ahead: Thursday’s PitBull Low Goes on Trial

Today will be a test of the PitBull’s Thursday low before today’s monthly options expiration.

As I said a few weeks ago, I do not like fading Jeff Hirsch from @almanactrader, and according to his July expo starts, “Monthly option expiration has historically been a speed bump for stocks. Since 1990, July monthly OpEx day has averaged declines of –0.35% (DJIA & S&P 500) and –0.44% (NASDAQ). The good news? Performance has generally rebounded during the week that follows.”

HandelStats Today’s Levels: Here

The HandelStats Seasonal Edge

July Has Historically Been One of the Strongest Months for the S&P 500

One of the advantages of quantitative market analysis is the ability to identify recurring historical tendencies that may not be obvious from simply watching daily price action. At HandelStats, we believe the best trading decisions are based on probabilities rather than opinions.

With July underway, we examined nearly five decades of S&P 500 history to determine whether the month has exhibited any meaningful seasonal characteristics.

The results were impressive.

July Trading Days Since 1980

Our study examined every S&P 500 trading session during the month of July from 1980 through 2025.

Results

• Total Trading Days: 974

• Up Days: 548

• Down Days: 426

Probability

• Up Days: 56.26%

• Down Days: 43.74%

While a 56% winning percentage may not seem overwhelming at first glance, over nearly 1,000 trading sessions it represents a meaningful long-term bullish tendency. July has consistently produced more advancing than declining sessions over the past 45 years.

Fridays Have Been Even Stronger

Next, we wanted to determine whether July's strength was evenly distributed throughout the week or concentrated on specific trading days.

Since 1980, there have been 190 Fridays during the month of July.

Results

• Up Fridays: 113

• Down Fridays: 77

Probability

• Up Fridays: 59.47%

• Down Fridays: 40.53%

Historically, nearly six out of every ten July Fridays have closed higher, outperforming the overall monthly average.

What About July 17?

We then narrowed the study even further.

Looking at every trading session that occurred on July 17, we found another interesting tendency.

Since 1980, July 17 has been a trading day 33 times.

Results

• Up Days: 21

• Down Days: 12

Probability

• Up Days: 63.64%

• Down Days: 36.36%

That means the S&P 500 has historically closed higher on nearly two out of every three July 17 trading sessions, making it one of the stronger calendar-date tendencies we have identified.

When July 17 Falls on a Friday

Finally, we examined one of the most specific calendar combinations in our database: years in which July 17 fell on a Friday.

This setup has occurred only seven times since 1980.

Results

• Up Days: 5

• Down Days: 2

Probability

• Up Days: 71.43%

• Down Days: 28.57%

Although the sample size is small, the results are noteworthy. Five of the seven occurrences finished with gains, producing the strongest historical percentage among the studies presented here.

As always, smaller sample sizes should be interpreted with appropriate caution.

Summary of the Studies

The progression is interesting:

• July overall: 56.26% bullish

• Fridays in July: 59.47% bullish

• July 17: 63.64% bullish

• July 17 when it falls on a Friday: 71.43% bullish

As the criteria become more specific, the historical percentage improves—but the number of observations decreases. This is an important concept in statistical analysis. Higher historical percentages based on fewer observations should be viewed as interesting tendencies rather than definitive trading signals.

The HandelStats Perspective

One of the things that separates HandelStats from traditional market commentary is our focus on uncovering statistical tendencies through decades of historical data. Rather than relying on opinions or predictions, we identify recurring market patterns that can help traders improve their decision-making.

Seasonality alone should never be the basis for a trade. However, when a seasonal tendency aligns with other bullish factors—such as positive opening gap statistics, favorable market internals, strong trend confirmation, or supportive volatility conditions—it can provide traders with an additional probability edge.

History does not repeat itself perfectly, but it often provides valuable context. By understanding how the market has behaved over thousands of prior trading sessions, traders can approach each day with greater confidence and a disciplined, probability-based framework.

Next week in the HandelStats Seasonal Edge, we'll continue exploring historical market tendencies and uncover additional patterns that have stood the test of time.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The studies presented by HandelStats are intended to identify historical tendencies, not predict future market performance. Successful trading requires disciplined risk management and confirmation from current market conditions.

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

PM Note

A selloff in semiconductor stocks (SMH -4%) weighed on the broader market. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq declined 1.6%. VIX closed at 16.72 (+7%), and VVIX closed at 97.31 (+6%).

SPX traded within an 88-basis-point range and closed at 7,534. The 43k dealer long call position and 33k dealer short put position at the 7,500 strike provided support throughout the session.

S&P 500 HIRO was relatively flat on the day, while S&P Equities HIRO finished at -$2B, driven primarily by longer-dated put buying activity.

COR1M closed at 4.7, indicating continued dispersion between S&P 500 and single stocks.

It is also notable that Nasdaq HIRO finished at -$5B, marking the most negative delta notional reading over the past 30 days. The flow was dominated by longer-dated put buying (blue line) alongside 0DTE call selling (green line), consistent with increased hedging activity across the technology sector.

Fixed Strike Volatility rose 0.5 to 2.0 volatility points across the curve, indicating increased hedging activity ahead of July OPEX tomorrow. As options expire and positioning shifts, volatility may increase both during and after OPEX day.

FlowPatrol winners of the day are SMH puts and CRM risk reversal.

In today's FlowPatrol report, we highlighted traders buying 10k contracts of 2DTE SMH July 600 puts along with approximately 6,500 contracts of SMH July 570 puts.

The SMH July 600 puts rallied from $22 to $35 (+59%) during the session. Meanwhile, the SMH July 570 puts surged from $4 to $10 (+150%) in just three hours as the contracts moved from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. As the options approached at-the-money, gamma sensitivity increased rapidly, causing delta to accelerate and significantly amplify the trade's PNL.

We also highlighted a CRM bullish risk reversal in this morning's FlowPatrol report, where traders sold 40k September 165 puts to help finance the purchase of 38k September 175 calls. This is a capital-efficient way to express a bullish view while collecting the upfront premium.

CRM rallied 3%, closing at 173. As capital rotated out of the semiconductor sector, software stocks showed notable relative strength today.

After the close, Netflix reported earnings that were in line with Wall Street expectations, and revenue and free cash flow missed consensus. Moreover, weaker revenue guidance and slower growth projections disappointed investors, sending the stock down 9% in after-hours trading, exceeding the 8% implied move priced into options.

Netflix was trading around 68 at the time of writing. The stock has declined approximately 40% over the past year. As we noted in Sunday's Note, there is a 100k-contract put-selling position at the 65 strike, making that level an important area to monitor heading into tomorrow's session.©2025 TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma

All TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. VIEW FULL RISK DISCLOSURE https://spotgamma.com/model-faq/disclaimer/



ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7582.75. This is the key level that must be reclaimed and held for bullish momentum to return.

ES is currently trading around 7517.25, well below the bull/bear line and below today’s lower range target at 7533.75. This keeps the immediate bias bearish. The first support is 7487.50. A sustained break below 7487.50 could open the door to further downside extension.

On a rebound, initial resistance is at 7533.75, followed by 7548.25. Bulls must recover both levels before attempting a move back toward the 7582.75 bull/bear line. Above 7582.75, resistance comes in at 7615.00 and then at 7631.75, today’s upper range target. Additional upside resistance is located at 7665.25 and 7678.00.

Overall, the ES remains bearish below 7582.75. Holding below 7533.75 favors continued pressure toward 7487.50, while reclaiming 7548.25 would be the first indication that sellers are losing control.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 29310.50. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to improve. NQ is currently trading near 28772.00, leaving the market firmly bearish below the bull/bear line.

The lower intraday range target is 28859.00. Price has already broken below this level, making it the first resistance area on any rebound. Continued acceptance below 28859.00 keeps downside pressure intact and exposes 28721.25, followed by 28433.75.

On the upside, initial resistance is at 28859.00, followed by 29078.50 and 29225.75. The 29310.50 bull/bear line is the major recovery level. Bulls would need to reclaim and hold above it before targeting 29709.00 and the upper range target at 29762.25.

Overall, the NQ remains decisively bearish below 29310.50. Sellers maintain control while price remains beneath 28859.00, and rallies into broken support should be treated cautiously unless buyers can establish sustained acceptance back above 29078.50.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, July 16, 2026

Thursday’s session unfolded as a true “wild-card” Cycle Day 3. The market delivered accurate overnight targets, a neutral and choppy morning, a clear afternoon decline, and a powerful late-day reversal. The best results came from staying flexible, respecting the defined PTG levels, and scaling entries and exits with the prevailing order flow.

Overnight and Opening Context

• The Daily Trade Strategy levels performed exceptionally well overnight.

• Price reached the projected lower target near 7580.

• Price also reached the projected upper target near 7630.

• David identified the session as Cycle Day 3 within a positive three-day cycle.

• Because Cycle Day 3 can behave unpredictably, the day was classified as a wild-card session.

• The regular session opened with a neutral rhythm near the five-day midpoint POC.

Morning Price Action

• Early trading showed responsive buying around VWAP.

• Several PTG indicators turned bullish, including cycle trend, large-volume, and A10 signals.

• Seller absorption was noted as buyers continued to support pullbacks.

• David emphasized that institutional buying remained strong.

• The market continued to reward traders who bought meaningful weakness rather than fighting the dominant order flow.

• The first NQ opening-range target was reached during the morning session.

Morning Trading Lesson

• One trader entered a “peek-a-boo” setup on the first touch of a prior buy-response area.

• The position was stopped out before the anticipated move developed.

• The trader also doubled down because of confidence in the expected direction.

• The main lesson was that a correct directional idea does not always justify an early entry.

• Confirmation, indicator alignment, and structured risk management remain essential.

• Reviewing the trade afterward was encouraged as part of the learning process.

• The trader’s attitude of “live and learn” reflected the right long-term mindset.

Late-Morning Chop

• By late morning, David identified that price was entering chop mode.

• The session became a short-term trader’s market.

• Fast decision-making and disciplined trade management were required.

• Traders needed to remain nimble rather than hold rigid directional opinions.

• David warned that traders who were too slow could get “burned by the candlestick.”

Afternoon Weakness

• As the afternoon session began, price weakness became more established.

• David identified the prior low near 7571.75 as the next downside objective.

• The Cycle Day 3 high was confirmed at 7631.75.

• The next cycle decline appeared to be underway.

• Price returned to test the 7575–7580 zone.

• The D-Level near 7564.50 remained in play and eventually triggered.

• The first target from the D-Level was the prior low.

Downside Projection Fulfilled

• Selling pressure increased late in the session.

• David noted that the better-positioned participants appeared to be selling.

• The market reached the Cycle Day 1 average decline projection at 7554.50.

• This fulfilled another important PTG projection level.

• The decline demonstrated the value of respecting predefined targets instead of trading from emotion.

Trade of the Day: D-Level and Money Box Reversal

• The standout trade developed from the D-Level and Money Box sequence.

• Entries were scaled around the D-Level, MB1, and MB2.

• MB1 triggered first, followed by MB2.

• The room used a structured DCA-in, DCA-out approach.

• Positions were scaled out through MB1, the D-Level, and the prior low.

• A surprising $8 billion MOC buy imbalance accelerated the reversal.

• The move from MB2 produced a strong late-day long opportunity.

• David described the trade as a fantastic D-Level/Money Box setup.

• Members called the MB2 long “a thing of beauty.”

• The reversal successfully reclaimed the prior low.

• David congratulated the room with “Well played everyone.”

Positive Highlights

• Overnight DTS levels at 7580 and 7630 were reached precisely.

• The afternoon weakness developed according to the projected cycle structure.

• The 7554.50 decline projection was fulfilled.

• The D-Level provided a clear and actionable trade location.

• MB1 and MB2 helped traders organize entries and exits.

• The late-day reversal created the strongest opportunity of the session.

• Traders openly shared results and charts.

• The room maintained a strong focus on transparency and education.

Key Lessons Learned

• Execute the plan rather than reacting emotionally.

• A correct market opinion does not excuse poor entry timing.

• Wait for confirmation before increasing position size.

• Stay flexible when the market shifts from trend to chop.

• Avoid trading against established order flow.

• Use predefined levels to structure entries, targets, and exits.

• Scaling can reduce pressure when it is planned in advance.

• Review mistakes after the session and use them to improve.

• Remain nimble, disciplined, and willing to adapt.

Closing Takeaway

• The day rewarded traders who respected PTG levels and adjusted to changing conditions.

• The morning favored patience and selective buying.

• The afternoon favored downside continuation.

• The close rewarded disciplined buyers at the D-Level and Money Box zones.

• The final message was simple: Buy the dip, sell the rip, and always execute the plan.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, July 17, 2026

Market Tone

• US equity futures are lower as traders weigh geopolitical risk, tariff concerns, and weakness in semiconductor stocks.

• Rising oil prices are adding inflation pressure and supporting a more defensive market tone.

• Narrow market breadth and rotation out of mega-cap tech continue to limit upside in the S&P 500.

• Volatility remains contained, but headline-driven swings are still a risk.

ES Technical Outlook

• ES broke below its short-term uptrend channel overnight and moved toward 7500.

• Elevated large-trader volume is leaning bearish.

• The former channel support at 7556–7561 may now act as resistance.

• The 50-day moving average near 7534.50 remains an important pivot.

• Continued selling could open a move into the mid-7400s and potentially toward 7400.

Key ES Levels

• Resistance: 7556–7561, 7697–7702, 7705–7710

• Support: 7500, mid-7400s, 7180–7175

Economic Calendar

• 8:30 a.m. ET: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import Prices

• 9:15 a.m. ET: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization

• 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

Earnings

• Premarket: Fifth Third, Regions Financial, Travelers, and Truist

• Monday morning: Ryanair