I was just messing around with ChatGPT yesterday and wondering about how the ES has been reacting to the moves in crude oil and bonds. The rule of thumb has been crude down, bonds and ES up, or bonds down and crude up, ES goes down. But it doesn't always work that way.

Wednesday’s crude oil was down 1% and the bonds, despite the rally, closed down -0.30% and the ES closed down -0.27%. Yesterday bonds were up +0.83% and crude oil was +3.66% and the ES closed down -0.46%

📊 MARKET RELATIONSHIP STUDY: ES vs. CL vs. ZB

20 Trading Sessions | Sept. 10 – Oct. 7, 2026

I compared the last 20 trading sessions of the December S&P 500 futures (ESZ26), crude oil (CLZ26), and 30-year Treasury bond futures (ZBZ26). The results revealed an interesting relationship between crude oil, interest rates, and the direction of the ES.

20-SESSION NET PERFORMANCE

🟢 ESZ26: +143.25 points (+1.86%)
🔴 CLZ26: −$5.32 (−5.73%)
🔴 ZBZ26: −5.94 points (−5.49%)

HERE'S WHAT STOOD OUT:

🔴 CL HIGHER + ZB LOWER: ES closed LOWER 5 out of 5 times (100%), losing an average of 32.15 points.

🟢 CL LOWER + ZB HIGHER: ES closed HIGHER 2 out of 3 times (67%), with an average gain of 57.42 points across those sessions.

DAILY CORRELATIONS

• ES vs. ZB: +0.61

• ES vs. CL: −0.47

MY TAKE: Despite crude oil and Treasury bonds both falling over the 20-session period, the ES managed to close higher. But when crude oil rallied and bond prices fell, the ES was lower every single time. Rising crude can add inflation pressure, while falling bond prices mean higher yields. Together, that can create a double headwind for stocks.

I've been watching crude oil and the bond market for decades, and this is the kind of relationship traders should pay attention to. It's only a 20-session study, not a proven trading signal, but the numbers are worth watching.

*Trust Your Gut, Not the TV.*

@MrTopStep | @PitBullTraders

#ES_F #CrudeOil #TreasuryBonds #FuturesTrading #StockMarket #MarketAnalysis

I dug deeper but this is a simple example of how even a simpleton AI user can pull data. Late last night I popped my head into the MTS chat and largevoid said that he and JB had said they were messing around with the study and I read back in the chat and it was an interesting discussion. I know I said I was going to do my best not to use AI but the deeper I dig in, I know that I could never do the work I do now, nor could I research some of the things I want to explore and Google doesn't get close to ChatGPT or Claude . Like it or not, AI is here to stay...

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined amid a selloff in semiconductor stocks, following reports that OpenAI's annualized revenue would fall short of some estimates. AI data-center-related stocks saw sharp declines, with ORCL (-5%), MU (-5%), INTC (-5%), AVGO (-4%), AMD (-4%), and NVDA (-3%).

Oil jumped but finished below session highs after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Treasuries rallied following a solid 30-year bond auction. Bitcoin fell below $82K at the time of writing.

Despite the technology selloff, energy (XLE) and consumer staples (XLP) showed relative strength as capital rotated.

SPX traded within an 85-basis-point range and closed at 7,765 (-0.5%). VIX rose slightly to close near 15, while VVIX increased by 5 vol points to 88, potentially reflecting increased demand for VIX calls.

SPX fixed-strike implied volatility remained relatively flat despite the selloff, with vols still trading in the low double digits. This suggests traders are not pricing in sustained volatility, as volatility sellers (Iron Condor) stepped in once again.

The Iron Condor prevailed again today. Notable 0DTE positioning included approximately 10K lots at the 7,835/7,840 and 7,725/7,720 strikes, opened around 10:30 a.m. ET. It's also worth noting that SPX Implied 1-Day Move Low at 7,735 (SPY at 770.86) held as the low of the day.

S&P 500 HIRO registered approximately -$2 billion in net delta on the day, primarily driven by 0DTE put buying (light-blue line). The short tenor of these flows suggests tactical, momentum-driven positioning.

S&P Equities HIRO recorded approximately -$3 billion in net delta, dominated by longer-dated call selling. These flows suggest a risk-off session, as market participants appeared to reduce upside exposure during the pullback.

As we saw sector rotation again from offensive sector to defensive sector, the correlation index (COR1M) fall below 8 today.

On the cross-asset front, bonds are telling a different story. As yields pulled back from recent highs, TLT continued to show bullish options flow, extending the strong activity seen over the previous two sessions. Notably, TLT reclaimed the 77 Hedge Wall and closed above it.

SpotGamma's Synthetic OI view suggests notable long-call positioning by traders across the 80–100 strikes, implying negative dealer gamma exposure to the upside. If yields move aggressively lower, the resulting rally in TLT could trigger additional dealer hedging flows, potentially amplifying the upside move.

©2026 TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma

All TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Globex

Thursday’s ES session opened at 7850.75 and made its overnight high at 7858.25 in the 7:35 p.m. ET bar Wednesday. That early lift did not hold. By the European morning, sellers had pushed the ES down to 7802.75 in the 6:30 a.m. bar, a 55.50-point drop from the high. Buyers recovered part of that loss before the cash opening, bringing the ES back to 7827.25.

The overnight recovery still left the opening 25.50 points below Wednesday’s 7852.75 settlement. The ES had already traded in a wide range before New York got underway, so a bounce alone was not enough to restore the prior day’s footing. The overnight high stayed well above the cash opening, while 7802.75 was the first downside reference to watch once regular trading began. Globex volume was 276,022.

Cash Trade

The ES opened at 7827.25 at 9:30 a.m. ET and worked higher in the morning. The session’s cash high of 7850.00 came in the 12:15 p.m. bar, but the rally reversed sharply. By the 1:25 p.m. bar, the ES had fallen to 7783.00, taking out the overnight low. That 67-point swing from the cash high to the low was the defining move of the day. Buyers then repaired part of the damage, with the ES back near 7807.50 at 3:00 p.m.

The 3:50 p.m. snapshot was 7815.00. The MOC Reveal started with $3.9 billion to buy, but that demand faded and the final imbalance turned to $243 million to sell. The last cash-session bar closed at 7817.25; the 4:00 p.m. snapshot was 7820.50. The ES settled at 7816.25, down 36.50 points, or 0.46%, from Wednesday’s settlement, and finished at 7822.50 at 5:00 p.m. Official session volume was 1,399,667.

NQ also had a difficult day. Its cash range ran from 31369.75 to 30792.00, with a last cash-session close of 30976.50. It settled at 30969.50, down 432.75 points, or 1.38%, and finished at 31021.25 at 5:00 p.m. Official volume was 509,635. Both markets recovered from their afternoon lows, but neither recovered its prior settlement. The late bounce eased the damage; the day still belonged to the sellers.

Buy Reveal Gives Way to Selling

The Reveal for the MOC on October 8 was $3.9 billion to buy. That demand faded to $3.0 billion at 3:52 p.m., $2.1 billion at 3:53 and $1.3 billion at 3:54. The balance flipped to $0.6 billion to sell at 3:55, reached $1.6 billion to sell at 3:57, then narrowed to $0.2 billion to sell at 4:00. The 3:55 p.m. period through the close is usually discretionary traders closing out the day; the dashboard does not identify the participants behind these orders.

The accompanying name panels show semiconductor concentration on the buy side: NVDA at $441.2 million, MU at $428.1 million, AVGO at $360.2 million, and AMD at $278.4 million. Sellers included SPCX at $143.4 million, MCD at $98.6 million, and MDT at $68.7 million. These are individual imbalances, not substitutes for total market flow, and the panels should not be read as a verified final-close breakdown.

The sector snapshot reinforces that concentration. Information Technology carried $3.1 billion net buying, with positive dollar and symbol breadth. Health Care added $387.9 million and Consumer Discretionary $183.6 million. Consumer Staples and Energy offset with $51.7 million and $32.5 million net selling, even though both had more buy-side than sell-side symbols.

Overall, this feels like a strong technology-led Reveal that lost its grip into the closing window. The sell imbalance eased substantially before the final reading, but the initial buying did not survive. Watch whether the next session confirms demand beyond the semiconductor names; this flow alone does not establish a price response.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Thursday, October 8, 2026

Thursday, October 8, 2026 delivered an active and volatile PTG trading session, featuring a successful Cycle Day 3 objective, sharp intraday reversals, and several excellent trades by room members. Although the market experienced headline-driven volatility and aggressive selling, key PTG levels produced strong buying responses. The afternoon session was particularly rewarding, with traders successfully executing both short and long setups around established technical levels.

Overnight setup and Cycle Day 3

• David identified the session as Cycle Day 3, with price having taken a decisive turn lower into the key 7805 D-Level Money Box zone.

• Price was trading below the Cycle Day 1 low, making a recovery potentially challenging.

• Despite the weak overnight backdrop, the market rallied during regular trading hours.

• Price reached 7829, satisfying the Cycle Day 3 objective.

Morning market action

• The morning rally continued as price retraced toward important reference levels.

• Steve9 identified the Globex midpoint at 7831.

• David noted that price retraced to the prior opening-range midpoint at 7838.

• The next upside objective was reclaiming the prior close at 7850.

• The room discussed the relationship between POC and VWAP, along with CCI crossovers and trend alignment.

• The morning session provided valuable examples of how price interacts with predefined market structure.

Afternoon volatility and buying response

• The afternoon featured sharp price swings that David attributed in part to Truth Social-related headline activity.

• Price fulfilled the Cycle Day 1 lower-range projection zone between 7776 and 7781.

• Aggressive responsive buying emerged from that area.

• The D-Level Money Box also came into focus and produced a massive buying response.

• These reactions demonstrated the value of having important price zones mapped before volatility develops.

Closing imbalance

• David reported a $4 billion MOC buy imbalance near the close.

• The substantial buying imbalance followed a session characterized by significant volatility and strong responses from lower support zones.

• The closing flow provided another example of why traders monitor institutional buying and selling activity late in the session.

Key trading lessons

• Cycle Day objectives remain valuable reference points even when overnight conditions appear unfavorable.

• Predefined Money Box zones and daily range projections can help identify potential reversal opportunities.

• Passing on an unclear setup is a disciplined decision, not a missed opportunity.

• Combining multiple technical references can improve confidence in trade selection and management.

• Scaling profits and maintaining clearly defined invalidation levels support consistent execution.

• Headline-driven volatility requires flexibility and careful attention to risk.

• The day's successful trades demonstrated that both bullish and bearish opportunities can be captured when traders remain aligned with market structure.

• David's closing recognition reinforced the value of preparation, patience, and disciplined execution throughout the session.

Interested in learning more? Explore the Polaris Trading Group live trading room.

DTG Room Preview

In its Friday preview, the DTG group describes a modest risk-on backdrop as falling crude and recovering technology shares compete with pressure from Treasury yields and a firm dollar. Its large-trader assessment is bullish heading into the U.S. session, while headline risk and sector dispersion remain central to the plan.

Market backdrop and catalysts

• Watch Treasury yields, crude, Iran-related headlines and AI/semiconductor leadership for shifts in index direction. The preview anticipates early chop as traders weigh energy relief against rate pressure.

• Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are due at 10:00 a.m. ET; Delta Air Lines is the pre-market earnings focus.

• DTG reports an ES five-day average daily range of 79 points, down from Wednesday’s 81.25. Geopolitics, Fed speakers and presidential social-media posts remain potential volatility triggers.

ES levels and tactical watch

• DTG’s short-term downtrend-channel top, quoted as 7819/04, held the session low for a second consecutive day and remains a support reference.

• Intermediate uptrend-channel resistance: 8002/07.

• Potential trend-line supports: 7812/07, 7695/00 and 7410/15. The source’s slash notation is retained.

• The 50-day moving average at 7772 is a looser support reference below. The bullish large-trader bias is an opening assessment, rather than a confirmed session outcome.