Important: This compares the same October 13–29 period for all five companies. It is not their combined loss strictly since earnings, and it excludes any after-hours moves on October 29.

First of all, I want to explain that I am not a Magnificent 7 expert, but when the top 7, 10, or 15 stocks make up 30% to 40% of the market cap of the S&P 500, I believe there is reason to be concerned.

Is the Magnificent 7 turning into the Magnificent 3 or 4? Earlier this month, on October 21, Tesla (TSLA) reported 3Q earnings that were a mixed bag, leaning a bit more on the positive side for bottom-line watchers, though there were clear structural weak spots. The stock has been down 4 of the last 7 sessions and 11 of the last 17 sessions.

Meta (META) also reported on October 21, and its earnings were fundamentally strong on the business side but caused anxiety on Wall Street due to massive spending. META has declined in 13 of the last 16 sessions, including four consecutive losing sessions from October 22 through October 27, dropping a total of $121.71, or 16.40%, from October 6 through October 27, 2026, including an 11.09% decline since its October 21 close.

Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) reported 3Q earnings on October 28, and the earnings were viewed as bad by Wall Street, primarily because they delivered a rare double miss on both the top and bottom lines, alongside heavy cash burn. The stock has been down 8 of the last 12 sessions, falling a total of $69.96, or 19.78%, from October 14 through October 29, 2026, and closing at $283.82, including a massive $41.07, or 12.64%, plunge on October 29 alone, suffering its worst day ever and shedding approximately half a trillion dollars in market value.

Microsoft (MSFT) also reported on October 28, and its earnings were decidedly good, highlighted by a strong "double beat" on Wall Street's top- and bottom-line expectations, driven heavily by accelerating cloud and artificial intelligence demand. However, the stock closed lower in 7 of the last 12 trading sessions, with only 5 up days, falling a total of $13.31, or 2.45%, from October 14 through October 29, 2026, and closing at $530.14.

And yesterday, Amazon (AMZN) reported quarterly net income topping $20 billion, but free cash flow plunged, falling to an outflow of $42.4 billion over the trailing 12 months, while the stock dropped 4.5%.

The graph below shows the market-cap losses following the earnings reports.

That makes 5 of the Magnificent 7, with Apple (AAPL) reporting on November 2 and Nvidia (NVDA) reporting on November 18.

Obviously, Apple has been a shining star, but it, too, has had some rough spots. The stock has closed higher in 11 of the last 18 trading sessions, with only 7 down days, gaining a total of $16.02, or 4.81%, from October 6 through October 29, and closing at $348.91. But in a shorter time frame, Apple has closed higher in 4 of the last 7 trading sessions, with 3 down days, gaining a total of $9.41, or 2.77%, from October 21 through October 29.

And Nvidia isn't looking so magnificent. The stock has closed lower in 12 of the last 17 trading sessions, with only 5 up days, falling a total of $25.58, or 10.69%, from October 7 through October 29, 2026, and closing at $213.66. That decline has wiped out approximately $618 billion in market capitalization. If you add that to the $1.36 trillion in combined market-cap losses shown in the chart above, you're looking at approximately $1.98 trillion in lost market value.

I know this is not the same as it was in 2000, but the Nasdaq Composite has rallied approximately 131% since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, very similar to the 130% surge during the 1999–2000 dot-com bubble.

During that period, the Nasdaq gained another 24% from December 31, 1999, to its March 2000 peak before collapsing nearly 78% by October 2002.

Founder’s Note

Brent Kochuba

A selloff in the tech sector (QQQ -1%) spurred a rotation into other sectors, including healthcare (XLV +2%), consumer staples (XLP +2%), and financials (XLF +1%).

The tech selloff was led by a record 13% plunge in Alphabet (GOOGL) following disappointing earnings, reviving concerns over whether AI spending will generate sufficient returns. ServiceNow (NOW) tumbled 27% following an earnings miss and concerns that AI could disrupt its business.

SPX traded within a 53-basis-point intraday range and closed at 7,720 (-0.3%). VIX closed at 17.19 (+2%), while VVIX finished at 98.01 (+1%).

As we mentioned in the AM Note, 0DTE flows helped stabilize SPX today, with support forming near 7,700. As a result, our Risk Pivot at 7,690 held throughout the session.

S&P 500 HIRO finished the day with approximately +$5bn in cumulative delta, with bullish flow accelerating after 2:00 p.m. ET. The reading surged from roughly -$4bn to +$6bn into the close, representing a $10bn positive swing in delta flow over the final two hours. This suggested significant dealer hedging demand, which likely helped support the market into the close.

Breaking down the index flows, the move was primarily driven by approximately +$5bn in 0DTE call delta (green line), suggesting that the activity was driven more by short-term tactical positioning than longer-term directional conviction.

On the other hand, S&P Equities HIRO finished at approximately -$3bn in cumulative delta. The negative flow was mainly driven by roughly $2bn in longer-dated call selling (orange line), suggesting that traders were reducing some single-stock upside exposure ahead of additional tech earnings tonight.

SPX fixed-strike implied volatility declined by 0.5–2 vol points during the session, reflecting broad volatility compression. Looking ahead to next week, SPX at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility remains in the low double digits, suggesting the options market is pricing in relatively muted moves.

Following the close, AMZN and INTC. AMZN dropped 7% following an earnings miss, with the move remaining within its implied move so far. INTC plunged 17% following weaker-than-expected guidance, more than double its implied move of 8%.

About SpotGamma

SpotGamma is an options analytics firm founded by Brent Kochuba in 2020. Its research and proprietary tools help traders understand how options positioning and hedging flows can influence stocks, futures, and major indexes.

SpotGamma profile · Visit SpotGamma · Explore SpotGamma TRACE · Explore HIRO

Thursday’s ES session started at 7767.75 and made its full-session high of 7773.75 during the 1:15–1:20 a.m. ET interval. That early strength did not carry through to the cash open. The overnight low was 7740.00, and the ES was back at 7747.25 by the end of Globex. The setup was already softer before New York opened, with the overnight session finishing 20.50 points below its opening price.

The cash session opened at 7747.50. The opening five minutes reached down to 7736.00 before the market recovered. Buyers eventually pushed the ES to the regular-session high of 7767.25 in the 11:30–11:35 a.m. interval, but they could not turn that move into sustained acceptance above the overnight opening area. The reversal took price back through the morning range, and the cash low of 7725.25 arrived during the 1:50–1:55 p.m. interval.

The afternoon then recovered. The 3:50 p.m. snapshot was 7749.00, and the regular session finished at 7754.00, up 6.50 points from its open but down 29.25 points from Wednesday’s settlement. Thursday’s official settlement was 7754.25. That late cash recovery mattered, but the selling after 4:00 p.m. changed the finish: the ES reached 7709.50 during the 4:50–4:55 p.m. interval and ended the full session at 7710.00.

In the end, the ES lost 73.25 points, or 0.94%, against Wednesday’s settlement, with total session volume of 1.92 million. The NQ was weaker: it finished regular trading at 29566.25 and the full session at 29218.25, down 761.25 points, or 2.54%, from Wednesday’s settlement. Its session range ran from 29794.25 to 29111.00. The lesson from the tape was straightforward: the cash rebound did not erase the overnight weakness, and it did not survive the final hour. Friday starts with that late selling still the key reference for any recovery attempt.

An $8.0 Billion Buy Reveal Turned Slightly Negative

The Reveal for the MOC on October 29 was $8.0 billion to buy. The balance stayed positive through most of the closing window, but the important change came between 3:55 and 3:56 p.m. Outstanding sells increased from $1.5 billion to $2.6 billion, while buys contracted from $7.2 billion to $4.0 billion. That combination cut the net buy balance to $1.5 billion. By 3:59, the balance had turned slightly negative; the final available reading was $0.2 billion to sell. Both outstanding sides then contracted into the last update, consistent with normal pairing rather than a standalone directional fade.

The Reveal’s accompanying buy table was concentrated in technology. Micron led at about $1.0 billion, followed by Alphabet’s Class A shares at $606.7 million and Microsoft at $483.7 million. Apple, Nvidia and several other semiconductor names also appeared among the buyers. JPMorgan led the sell table at $86.6 million, followed by Dick’s Sporting Goods at $47.2 million and Stryker at $41.5 million. The leading sellers were spread across industries.

The accompanying sector snapshot showed $4.8 billion of net Information Technology buying and $1.1 billion in Communication Services. Financials remained net positive at $186.8 million despite the individual bank sellers. These describe the displayed sector mix, not the final auction breakdown.

The feel changed from heavily buy-sided to nearly balanced. The sell-side increase deserved attention, while the final contraction alone did not establish a futures reversal. Today’s opening still needs its own price confirmation.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work

How to read the MIM

Friday, October 30: Rich Miller / HandelStats is the confirmed Pit host. Start time to be confirmed.

Scheduled YouTube link and matching thumbnail pending verification.

Don’t trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s Thursday discussion followed an early reversal, a failed recovery through the line in the sand, and a later return to the lower targets. David’s updates kept the focus on how price behaved at those references. Members also spent time separating chart structure from execution and asking when a technically available entry should be passed. The close and the first minutes after it brought a very different pace from the midday consolidation.

The opening reference points

• David marked Thursday’s session before the open and shared the morning charts. A member later described the day as Cycle Day 3, with the possibility of a high still in mind.

• The first substantive price update came at 9:43 a.m. ET: David said the Daily Trade Strategy Briefing’s second lower target at 7735 had been fulfilled and price had reversed. The target touch and the subsequent reversal were reported together, giving the room a defined reference for the early move.

One level, several execution views

• Questions about D-level centered on whether it changed with the chart timeframe. David answered that the levels were the same regardless of timeframe. Another participant described using a three-minute chart for execution, keeping the reference level separate from the chart used to act on it.

• David also said the level could be turned on at any time. The exchange concerned the tool’s availability and consistency; it did not establish that every appearance of the level was a valid trade or that a particular entry was mandatory.

The early long and the next change

• At 9:42 a.m. ET, David called the DLMB long in play. A member subsequently posted a chart and described the move as running.

• At 10:14 a.m., David posted “A10 Flip-out.” By the end of the initial-balance hour, a participant described conditions as a chopfest.

Knowing when to pass

• One member asked for more explanation of how David builds intuition rather than relying only on mechanical rules. The specific concern was recognizing a setup that appeared structurally valid but still deserved a pass.

• Another example involved taking a very small pullback after an unstable move up or down. Participants described that as a lesson from the discussion. The useful distinction was between recognizing a pattern and deciding whether its immediate conditions supported execution.

The recovery failed at 7765

• At 11:44 a.m. ET, David reported that price had pushed to 7765, the line in the sand, and been rejected lower. His next update described continuing consolidation rhythms.

• That sequence matters: the room saw a recovery attempt, then a rejection, rather than a confirmed acceptance above the reference. The earlier reversal from 7735 did not by itself establish that the upper decision point had been overcome.

The afternoon returned to 7725

• At 1:54 p.m., David said the third lower target from the briefing, 7725, had been reached. Around 2:34, he again highlighted the pressure on bulls at that level.

• At 3:34, his update said 7725 had held, with attention turning to the closing imbalance and the earnings releases after the bell. That was a later observation of support, distinct from the earlier report that the target had been touched.

The close did not end the risk

• David described a strong buy imbalance before the close and called it a significant day for A10. The shared statistics screen was labeled Sim13; its results are simulated and must not be treated as verified live-account performance.

• Immediately after the bell, the discussion shifted to sharp moves around Amazon and Intel earnings. A later shared watchlist showed broad declines among the displayed names. The room’s closing lesson was practical: a setup that held during cash trading did not remove the separate risk of the next earnings headline.

DTG Room Preview

DTG heads into Friday with a bearish whale bias and a focus on whether the overnight selloff can break key ES trendline support. The room frames the session around earnings-driven technology weakness, elevated volatility and the response at 7687/92.

Market backdrop and catalysts

• DTG reports elevated overnight large-trader volume and a bearish whale bias into the U.S. open.

• The preview highlights AI-spending concerns and post-earnings weakness in technology as the main risk backdrop, with Treasury yields and semiconductor stocks on watch.

• Scheduled catalysts in the preview include the Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. ET and Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by Fed speakers Mary Daly at noon and Alberto Musalem at 12:30 p.m. ET.

ES levels and tactical watch

• DTG identifies 7687/92 as the pivotal trendline test. A failure could open a move toward 7500 next week; holding support could set up a bounce toward 7755/60.

• The former short-term uptrend channel bottom at 7755/60 acted as Thursday’s resistance. The 50-day moving average at 7759.50 remains a potential loose support/resistance reference after the overnight break below it.

• Other clearly stated trendline references: resistance at 7766/71, 7895/00 and 8060/65; lower support at 7428/33.