The day started with a missile attack and fire near the Saudi Ras Tanura oil terminal around 7:30 AM, pushing the CLZ up to its high of the day at $103.55. At 8:30, the U.S. trade deficit came in higher than expected at $134.9 billion versus the estimate of $128.7 billion, a difference of $6.2 billion.

At 9:45, a headline hit that the BOC had raised interest rates by 25 basis points. By 10:30 AM, the bonds ($ZB) were down a few points, while the $ES and $NQ were trading higher, coming off a two-day rally as the Fed entered the second day of its two-day meeting. With no rate hike expected, all eyes were on Warsh's comments about inflation, Thursday's PCE report, and the big tech and AI earnings coming after Wednesday's close.

As I said in yesterday's OP, there have been a lot of upside and downside false starts. Everything was humming along, with the ES trading up to the 7795 area at 1:30 PM before the Fed headlines hit the tape. The ES broke down to the 7762 area by 1:55. I expected there would be some selling after the Fed headlines hit, but the selling came early. At 2:00, there was a barrage of 10 headlines, followed by more headlines, and then another seven from Fed Chair Warsh between 2:39 and 2:58, pushing the ES down to the 7757 area. During that time, there were also headlines that JD Vance was holding high-level talks with a top Iranian official.

But that wasn't the end of the story.

The ES was trading around the 7760 area at 3:35 when I noticed that the NQ was starting to see some small buy imbalances show up. I thought there was going to be a buy-side MOC or 3:50 imbalance. After the ES started going bid as the NQ buy imbalances continued to show up, the 3:50 imbalance came out at $1.4 billion to sell. Both markets downticked, and then the NQ buy imbalances started showing up again.

I have certain times I watch, and I told the MTS chart room to watch 3:59, one minute before the 4:00 cash close. I was long the ES and selling on the way up, and the ES and NQ took off a few seconds before the 4:00 print.

Then Google and Microsoft both reported earnings just after 4:00, and the ES rallied to a new high at 7819.50, while the NQ shot up to a new high at 30,178. Alphabet (Google) suffered a rare "double miss" in Q3 2026, while Microsoft ($MSFT) delivered a definitive "double beat" for its fiscal Q1 2027. The stark contrast in their results triggered a sharp divergence in how Wall Street reacted to each company's heavy AI spending.

I can't cover all the ups and downs, but the ES did what I thought it would do: sell off from its higher open and then rally. What I didn't know was the sheer volume of headlines, and I only included a few of them, the late volatility, and the mixed earnings results.

In the end, the only thing I can say is that it was a wild day of rips and dips, and the wild moves continued right into last night's Globex session. The ES traded down to 7741.50, down 41.75 points on the session and 77.25 points off the day's high, while the NQ sold off to 29,502, down 477.50 points on the session and 673 points off its high of the day.

Our House

By Tom Incorvia

(Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young)

Home improvement as an economic signal

Spending on home improvement is read as a gauge of consumer confidence and housing health. When homeowners commit to big projects, it signals they feel secure about jobs, home equity, and borrowing costs. When that spending stalls, it often points to pressure from high mortgage rates, a frozen housing turnover cycle, and households protecting cash.

Home Depot and Lowe’s are telling the same story. Both spent the spring and summer building well-defined, balanced distributions, then in late September, both exited lower and failed to find acceptance. A failed breakout below balance is information: sellers had their chance and could not keep price away. Returning to balance is not the trade by itself, though. I want to see the recent swing highs exceeded first.

Home Depot (HD)

HD balanced roughly between 298 and 353, with its heaviest volume near 337. In late September, it broke below the lower extreme and traded as low as about 278, but could not build value there. Price has since reclaimed 298 and trades near 320. The trigger is a move above the recent swing high near 328. That would confirm buyers are in control and open a rotation toward 337, then the upper extreme at 353. A move back below 298 would tell me the market wants to try the downside again.

Lowe’s (LOW)

LOW balanced between roughly 192 and 228, with value centered near 217. It exited lower in late September and printed a low of 179.23 before buyers stepped in and returned it to balance. It now trades around 198. The trigger is a move above the recent swing high near 205. That opens the path to 217, then the upper extreme at 228. A move back below 192 would put the downside back in play.

About Tom Incorvia

With 35+ years of trading experience, Tom Incorvia brings a practical, real-world perspective to market analysis. Trained in Market Profile under Peter Steidlmayer, his approach centers on reading market structure through volume and price.

Explore Tom’s Volume Profile: Dynamics of Fair Value course.

Globex: a measured overnight recovery

ES opened the completed session at 7761.75 and worked higher during Globex, reaching 7778.25 while holding an overnight low of 7752.25. The move was a recovery rather than a clean breakout: buyers carried price away from the lower end, but the overnight high remained well inside the range that would develop later. By the end of Globex, ES stood at 7774.75, up 13.00 points from its overnight opening and 16.50 above Tuesday’s official settlement.

That left the cash session with a straightforward test. Buyers needed to extend above 7778.25 and keep the recovery intact; a return toward the overnight low would put the earlier progress at risk. Globex volume was 200,283 contracts. The opening position favored a test higher, but the overnight advance alone had not settled the day’s direction.

Cash trade: two-way swings, followed by a late reversal

The regular session opened at 7774.75, dipped to 7751.50, and later reached 7794.25. Buyers finished the cash window at 7784.50, a 9.75-point gain from the open. The 42.75-point cash range and repeated movement through the opening area made this a two-way session, even with the higher finish. Regular-session volume reached 1,196,559 contracts.

The largest extension came after the cash close. ES pushed to the full-session high at 7819.50, then reversed to 7750.25 before finishing the 5 p.m. ET session at 7760.75. That left the final trade almost unchanged from the 7761.75 session opening, despite a 69.25-point full-session range. The late high did not hold, and the close returned near the lower end of the day.

Official settlement was 7783.25, up 25.00 points, or 0.32%, from Tuesday. Cleared ES volume totaled 1,556,188 contracts. NQ settled at 29979.50, up 167.50 points, or 0.56%; its completed session ranged from 29674.25 to 30178.00 and ended at 29756.25. Both contracts finished their full sessions below settlement, leaving the next opening to judge whether the earlier strength could be recovered.

A Brief Buy Flip Gave Way to Renewed Selling

The Reveal for the MOC on October 28 was $1.2 billion to sell. Buying then built enough to flip the balance to $0.3 billion to buy at 3:54 p.m., before selling reasserted itself. Outstanding sells increased from $3.5 billion at 3:54 to $4.5 billion at 3:56, while buys fell from $3.8 billion to $1.7 billion. The final available balance was $2.3 billion to sell. From 3:59 through 4:00, both sides contracted, consistent with normal pairing; that narrowing alone was not a directional fade. Across the Reveal’s 684 symbols, 332 leaned buy and 352 leaned sell. The dollar balance and the number of symbols leaning each way describe different sides of the auction.

At the Reveal, Micron led the buy table at $538.3 million, followed by Texas Instruments at $130.1 million and Costco at $111.7 million. Microsoft and Oracle topped the sell table at $232.2 million and $224.4 million, with Meta at $153.0 million. Semiconductors attracted substantial buying, but the technology complex was clearly split rather than moving as one.

The Reveal sector mix showed Information Technology buying of $247.2 million net and Consumer Staples buying of $83.2 million. Health Care and Financials leaned the other way, with $360.9 million and $356.3 million to sell. Materials illustrated the divergence: positive symbol breadth alongside a negative dollar balance.

The feel was unstable and rotational. The brief buy flip did not stick, and the late sell-side increase mattered more than the routine final contraction. That describes auction pressure, not a guaranteed direction for futures or today’s open.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work

How to read the MIM

Thursday, October 29: Tom Incorvia joins The Pit for Market Profile at 9:15 a.m. ET.

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Don’t trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Daily Breadth — October 28, 2026

Source: WSJ Markets Diary.

Polaris Trading Group

Wednesday’s Cycle Day 2 began with an upside objective and finished with that objective fulfilled, but the route was far from a straight trend. David’s PTG updates described a quiet opening, repeated balancing around the morning references, a sharp response to the Fed announcement, and a test back toward the prior close. The closing update noted a firm outgoing bid. With the cycle targets complete, Thursday’s Cycle Day 3 was designated a “wild-card.”

The overnight foundation

• The overnight recap identified 7750 as the line in the sand. That reference had held while price drifted higher and fulfilled the 7775 second target from the daily briefing. David entered the morning looking for the three-day cycle objective at 7784.85, later rounded to 7785 in the live updates.

• Those were separate references: 7750 framed the overnight support decision, 7775 was an intermediate objective and 7785 remained the larger cycle target. Keeping their roles separate helped explain why reaching one level did not mean the entire plan had finished.

A quiet open with fast entries

• The first market description after the bell was “relatively quiet.” A BLT short was posted at 71.25, and several room responses said the entry had moved too quickly to catch. Later discussion noted that the recent high aligned with that same morning BLT reference.

• The speed of that first opportunity stood out against the otherwise quiet opening. Several traders missing the same move was a reminder that a calm overall market can still deliver brief entry windows. The later return to that reference kept the morning discussion focused on the same area.

Two-way trade challenged the early signals

• Early A10 discussion included a failed signal and frustration with back-and-forth movement. A later update said the A10 short was redeeming itself after the long stop-out. That sequence supports a mixed morning rather than a claim that every setup worked.

• By 10:35 a.m. ET, David characterized the session as a normal Cycle Day 2 balancing day. The room’s short, real-time observations fit that description: repeated decisions around familiar prices, with execution and risk control more useful than assuming an uninterrupted directional move.

The value framework stayed visible

• A shared educational diagram compared buy/sell breakouts with buy/sell pullbacks. Its examples used value-area edges, volume nodes, VWAP, and different profile shapes to illustrate where a trader might distinguish a breakout from a return into value.

• The diagram distinguished a balanced distribution from b-shaped and p-shaped profiles, keeping breakout locations separate from pullback locations. A subsequent message identified a discount long on a pullback trigger. The emphasis stayed on identifying the setup and its location within value rather than chasing the preceding move.

7775 remained difficult before the release

• At 12:20 p.m. ET, the update said bulls were still struggling to gain traction above the 7775 second target. That preserved the distinction between testing an objective and sustaining acceptance above it.

• At 12:44 p.m., David saw little to no edge ahead of the 2 p.m. Fed release, and recommended stepping away from the screens. Sitting out that interval was an explicit part of the day’s guidance, rather than a missing trade that needed to be filled.

The announcement completed the cycle objective

• At 2:12 p.m. ET, David reported that the 7785 three-day cycle target had been fulfilled on the Fed announcement. During the press conference, the room described price action as snappy, including a rapid 40-handle movement and a push into the Money Box Zone.

• The sudden acceleration changed the pace of a session that had spent hours balancing. The larger cycle objective was now complete, making the response after the initial burst the next question. The earlier warning about limited edge before the announcement also helped distinguish waiting for movement from trying to anticipate every swing.

Price returned toward the prior close

• After the press conference, David summarized the response as a push to fulfill the cycle target followed by a descent to test the 7756 prior close. He again described normal Cycle Day 2 rhythms and a balanced distribution.

• The closing assessment then noted a firm outgoing bid. That late observation belongs alongside the earlier rotation and pullback; it does not erase the two-way conditions that dominated much of the session.

Thursday starts with a fresh decision

• With the cycle objectives fulfilled, David marked Thursday’s Cycle Day 3 as a wild-card. His standing guidance remained to align with the dominant force, take only the best setups, manage risk, and maintain hard stops on the exchange.

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group’s Thursday preview treats ES as a rotation market until price earns a breakout. Its focus is on acceptance around the former uptrend boundary and the reaction to the 8:30 a.m. ET economic releases.

The opening setup

• The group notes that ES has repeatedly rotated between 7700 and 7800 during the past two months. It puts the former short-term uptrend boundary at 7755–7760 and is watching whether buyers can hold above it.

• Its five-day average daily ES range is 83.75 points. The preview describes an early bearish large-trader bias and elevated overnight activity; those are the group’s observations, rather than a confirmed opening signal.

Acceptance and rejection

• Above 7755–7760, the group’s next upper reference is 7895–7900. Further resistance is marked at 7980–7985 and 8050–8055.

• Failure to hold the boundary brings 7678–7683 into focus, with deeper support at 7426–7431. The group also highlights its 50-day moving average at 7759.75 as a nearby reference.

• DTG is watching GDP, core PCE, jobless claims, and income and spending data at 8:30 a.m. ET. The response at the marked zones matters more than assuming the first move will persist.