At 1:00 yesterday, the ES had moved higher like my study showed, but there were some headwinds. Bonds were down, and December crude oil traded around $99.24 in the early afternoon. There is a story in The Wall Street Journal titled “Why Economists Think Higher Bond Yields Are Here to Stay.” According to the economists surveyed, higher yields won't be going away anytime soon, which means pressure on anyone looking for a new mortgage, businesses planning to borrow, and heavily indebted borrowers. I think we all know the Fed's interest-rate path remains a headwind. With crude oil near $100.00, inflationary pressure rising, and economists giving Fed chairman Kevin Warsh a report card, it's clear not everyone is on the same page. With only 14 calendar days until the midterm elections on November 3, some individual polls look tighter, but the broader national polling has not shown a sustained Republican comeback. We’ll see how these stats play out.

What has changed?

Nationally: The latest RealClearPolling average puts Democrats ahead by 8.6 points, 50.9% to 42.3%. Individual surveys vary, so I would not call a sustained Republican comeback from one or two polls.

House: An Associated Press report earlier this month describes Republican campaign groups redirecting spending away from some competitive districts while Democrats target additional Republican-held seats.

Senate: Fox News's October 18 ratings identified six toss-up Senate races, leaving several closely contested states central to control of the chamber.

Trump's approval: Recent Fox, NBC, and Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos polling cited by Axios puts his approval around 33%–36%, an important consideration in congressional polling. The surveys cover different voter populations, so the figures are not directly interchangeable.

The key question over the final 14 days is whether a tighter race starts appearing consistently across multiple independent polls, particularly among likely voters.

Bottom line: Some individual surveys show a tighter race, but the broader average still gives Democrats a substantial lead. That is worth watching, but it isn't yet evidence of a sustained Republican surge.

It's coming down to the wire for Trump. If the Democrats take control of the House, will they try to impeach him? I think there is a good possibility, but Democratic leaders have not committed to that. They are saying they will run investigations.

What could happen if Democrats win?

Congressional investigations: Democrats plan to investigate allegations involving Trump's business dealings, government contracts, and possible abuses of presidential power.

Subpoenas and hearings: House committees could compel testimony and documents from administration officials.

Possible impeachment: A Democratic-controlled House could approve articles of impeachment with a simple majority.

Senate trial: Removing Trump from office would require a two-thirds vote of senators present, or 67 if all 100 are present.

Bottom line: If the House did impeach him, it would be the third time. Impeachment does not automatically remove a president from office. Trump was impeached twice during his first term and acquitted by the Senate both times. Removal would require substantial bipartisan Senate support.

Order Book vs. Chart Trading

By Bosier Parsons

Volatility and smoothness of trading in different instruments can vary dramatically, including from day to day, or even intraday, within the same instrument. For me, this is a significant challenge to my emotional reaction to my trades. If I’m in the flow and seeing things clearly, I have confidence in my system and signals, and I easily recognize when I should and should not be taking risk in the market. The combination I look for is a smooth chart, with full-bodied candles for my timeframe (usually the 1-minute in conjunction with the 15-minute). I also reference whether the depth of the order book is normal or especially thin, and whether the speed and follow-through of the moves are normal or especially fast. When they are, the market seems to flow, and the liquidity provides for easy and quick migration between levels, which translates to great opportunity for both profit and loss. These are the times to be trading. But these are NOT the times to be emotional in reaction to your trades.

I have recognized over the years that when I’m too focused on the order book and have my mouse constantly hovering over the order book, it’s a reflection of anxiety within myself and leads to emotional decisions and reactions.

When the markets are thin and moving fast, a human cannot keep pace with the order book, so this is the time to step back, look at the bigger timeframe, and especially to trade off the charts and what they’re presenting. In this way, like a great pro athlete, you can “slow the game down” and see clearly where you should be looking to enter and exit the market.

This will also help you identify choppy conditions, where the candles have long wicks, and the price movements do not follow through cleanly and smoothly. These are the times NOT to be trading. Recognizing these patterns and focusing on them will help with your patience and allow the market to come to you on your terms and per your plan and setups. When you do this, you will feel the simplicity and calmness of being in the zone and flowing with the market, and your bottom line will thank you for it.

© BPTC 26 LLC

Bosier Parsons’s digital business card

About Bosier Parsons

Bo is a full-time ES futures trader based in Colorado Springs. Bo joined the Pitbull Traders family to give back to the trading community the same way his father mentored him.

Explore Bo’s levels sheets, chatroom and consulting services.

Yesterday’s ES rebound did most of its work overnight, then gave back part of the recovery during regular trading. The full session opened at 7679.50 and briefly touched 7677.00 before buyers lifted it toward the upper end of the range. By the cash open, ES was at 7741.50, a 62-point gain from the Globex open.

The first half hour brought a pullback to 7727.50. Buyers recovered and pushed ES to the full-session high of 7773.25 around 11:35 a.m. ET, but that extension did not hold. A midday retreat returned price to the 7740s, leaving an afternoon rotation rather than a sustained advance.

The late session slipped again: the 3:50 p.m. five-minute bar opened at 7747.00 and closed at 7740.25. Regular trading finished at 7735.00, down 6.50 points from its open but up 30.75 from Friday’s official settlement. Cleanup trade lifted the final session price to 7739.75.

The official ES settlement was 7734.50, up 30.25 points, or 0.39%, from Friday’s 7704.25. NQ settled at 29722.50, up 331.00 points, or 1.13%, from 29391.50. ES volume totaled 1,683,462 contracts. The rebound repaired some of Friday’s damage, while the failure to hold the late-morning high left sellers active above the afternoon range.

A Heavy Sell Reveal Loses Force Late

The all-market MOC reveal snapshot at 3:51:00 p.m. ET yesterday showed $7.4 billion to sell, with $9.2 billion offered against $1.7 billion to buy. Later, all-market readings from the same MIM feed showed about $1.8 billion to sell at 3:55:02 p.m., then $78.2 million to buy at 3:58:02 p.m. These are time-specific indicated net imbalances, not executed sales or the final auction balance. The 3:55 p.m. period through the close is usually discretionary traders closing out the day; the dashboard does not identify individual participants.

The accompanying stock tables showed the pressure concentrated in familiar growth names. Nvidia carried $743.1 million to sell, Amazon $732.2 million, Apple $572.4 million, and Microsoft $501.0 million. Buyers were more scattered: Mastercard led at $99.4 million, followed by Medtronic at $67.4 million and Hewlett Packard Enterprise at $64.1 million. Those offsets were modest beside the largest sell indications.

The sector mix told the same story. Information Technology showed $4.2 billion to sell, Consumer Discretionary $1.1 billion, and Communication Services $746.4 million. Consumer Staples also leaned heavily toward selling in dollars even though a majority of its symbols leaned to buy. That divergence matters: counting winners alone would miss the concentration in larger orders.

The overall feel was heavy selling that lost substantial force late, rather than a broad, evenly distributed liquidation. The fading sell pressure and late flip to a small buy indication are constructive context, but it does not establish a final auction balance or guarantee a price response. The next session needs sustained buying beyond a handful of offsets to turn that improvement into a stronger market read.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work

How to read the MIM

Today in The Pit: Quick Draw Bo

Join Quick Draw Bo (Bosier Parsons) on Tuesday, October 20, at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Don’t trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s Monday session began with an overnight recovery and developed into a day of rotation, profile-based decisions, and selective execution. David identified Cycle Day 1 and later said the overnight rally had already satisfied the expected range. The useful distinction was between that early recovery and the more balanced afternoon: the room’s written updates did not support treating every bounce as the start of another trend.

Overnight setup and Cycle Day

• David’s afternoon assessment placed the session in Cycle Day 1. He said the overnight rally had fulfilled the expected range before price consolidated around the middle of the day’s range.

• That assessment framed the recovery as repair of the previous session’s sell-down damage. It did not establish a fresh directional breakout or provide a reason to chase an already completed overnight move.

The opening sandbox

• At 9:31 a.m. ET, David marked an early sandbox range as “32–52.” Later posts supplied the fuller 7768–7770 decision zone; the opening shorthand remains distinct from that later resistance area.

• By 10:41 a.m., David described the early action as “Non-Trend rhythms.” The session called for recognizing rotation and assessing location rather than assuming a clean trend would follow the opening swings.

The noon decision zone

• At 12:01 p.m., David identified 7768–7770 as the key area: acceptance would favor higher prices, while rejection would favor lower trade. His follow-up said the decision had been lower and pointed to the edge of the volume profile.

• Minutes later, he called out a BLT short play and a break of the 63 handle against the 68–70 zone. The sequence links the trade idea to rejection at a defined area rather than to a generic bearish prediction.

• The chart posted at 12:45 p.m. illustrated the breakdown and a later “FLIP OUT EXIT” annotation. It supports the described setup, without proving an account-level execution or profit.

Afternoon discipline

• At 1:31 p.m., David said price had returned to the middle of the opening range, with no clear edge in either direction. His response was to sit on his hands until a cleaner opportunity developed.

• The later Cycle Day 1 update again emphasized midrange consolidation after the overnight rally. The written posts do not establish a new afternoon trade, so the recap keeps the decision to wait separate from earlier trade commentary.

The practical lesson

• Monday’s sequence favored matching tactics to conditions: identify the range, watch acceptance or rejection at the profile edge, and reduce activity when price returns to a location without a clear advantage.

• The anniversary discussion about the 1987 crash supplied historical perspective. The actionable lesson from this session remained present-day execution and patience, rather than a prediction based on that anniversary.

Polaris Trading Group’s Daily Trade Strategy

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group is watching whether ES can resolve its broad 7700–7800 area after returning inside the bottom of its former rising channel. The preview favors patience at the boundaries, with a slightly bearish large-trade bias observed during light overnight activity.

Range and trend

• The group views the lower channel boundary as a support reference. A clear break of either side of the 7700–7800 area could create room for a larger move.

• The 50-day moving average near 7773 remains a loose overhead resistance reference. Recent trading ranges have expanded, increasing the importance of location and confirmation.

Levels to watch

• Support zones are 7738–7741 and 7685–7690, with a much deeper reference at 7410–7415.

• Resistance zones are 7784–7789, 7891–7896, 7930–7935 and 8025–8030.

• These are the DTG group’s chart zones, distinct from the calculated BTS levels elsewhere in this issue.

Execution focus

• The group is monitoring oil, rates, and headline risk alongside the price structure. Treat its bearish overnight observation as context rather than a confirmed cash-session outcome.

• Watch acceptance or rejection at the nearby zones before assuming that an initial break will continue.