An Apple A Day Keeps The Doctor Away

To say the stock market is a ticking time bomb is an understatement. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from August’s 3.4% increase, with the latest monthly pace translating into a 7.2% annualized gain.

Iran attacked oil tankers and threatened to send troops into other Middle Eastern countries if the U.S. strikes. Oil surged toward $95 a barrel, the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.80%, and the 10-year yield hit 5.215%. Gold fell toward the $4100 area, while gasoline prices continued to rise.

Meanwhile, the ES dropped 1.17%, its largest decline since July 29, a span of 57 trading sessions, while the NQ plunged 2.13%, its biggest decline since July 27. In a flight to quality, 30-year Treasury bond futures rallied, while the VIX climbed to 17.45.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 102.53, just shy of its six-month high. Bitcoin fell 1.88%, and the euro dropped sharply to a 17-month low. At the same time, Apple reached a staggering $5 trillion market valuation.

Rising inflation, surging Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and growing pressure on stocks—all unfolding less than three weeks before the midterm elections.

I've seen a lot of markets over the years, but this is one hell of a combination of risks, and it's happening while the stock market is still trading near record highs

October's Midterm Rally: Is the Best Yet to Come? 

Jeff Hirsch - Stock Trader’s Almanac

October 2026 is delivering gains across most major indexes, but there is a widening divide between large-cap strength and small-cap weakness.

Through the market’s October 13 close, Russell 1000 and S&P 500 are up about 2%, followed by DJIA at 1.5% and NASDAQ around 1.3%. Russell 2000, however, has slipped nearly 0.5%, suggesting the rally has not extended consistently to smaller companies.

Momentum has also cooled. NASDAQ’s advance peaked just about 2.7% early in the month before retreating, while the broader large-cap indexes have surrendered part of their initial gains. That makes participation and follow-through more important than the positive headline returns alone.

Compared with the historical midterm-year paths shown, most indexes remain ahead of their corresponding early-October levels. Even the struggling Russell 2000 is less negative than its historical trajectory at this stage.

October’s most encouraging feature is its historical tendency toward stronger performance later in October, with all five benchmarks finishing with around 3%–4% gains. Renewed NASDAQ momentum and improving small-cap participation would make any continuation of this rally more convincing.

Wednesday’s ES session began at 7856.25 and initially worked higher, but the inflation release changed the tone. The September CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase and 3.7% annual inflation. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the ES touched its session high of 7879.75 before falling to 7833.00 within that five-minute period. The next period reached 7828.00. By the cash open, the overnight advance had given way to a 7824.00 starting point.

The early cash bounce reached 7837.75 at 9:45 a.m., but buyers could not recover the pre-CPI area. Selling pushed the ES down to 7741.00 in the 2:00 p.m. period, a full-session range of 138.75 points. The late rebound recovered part of the loss without repairing the day’s damage.

The 3:50 p.m. snapshot was 7765.25. The MOC Reveal began $2.4 billion to buy, then reversed into selling late in the auction sequence and finished at about $1.7 billion to sell. The ES nevertheless ended regular trade at 7771.75, above the afternoon low. That was 84.00 points, or 1.07%, below Tuesday’s 7855.75 official settlement. Wednesday’s official settlement was 7770.25.

Cleanup trade slipped to a 7765.25 final session price at 5:00 p.m. Volume totaled about 1.97 million. The NQ was weaker, with a 30891.50 high, a 30078.00 low and a 30139.25 final session price. Its official settlement of 30182.75 was down 608.75 points, or 1.98%, from Tuesday.

The ES recovered off its low, but the failed morning bounce and the NQ’s larger settlement decline left the overall tone defensive. Buyers managed a late response; they did not reclaim the ground lost after CPI.

A Buy Reveal Gives Way to Closing Sellers

The Reveal for the MOC yesterday was $2.4 billion to buy. Buyers stayed ahead through 3:55 p.m., including a rebound to $2.3 billion at 3:54, but the balance flipped sharply at 3:56 to $1.7 billion to sell. Selling reached $1.8 billion a minute later, eased to $706 million at 3:58, then rebuilt into a final $1.7 billion sell imbalance at 4:00. The 3:55 p.m. period through the close is usually discretionary traders closing out the day. Here, the late flow erased the early buy advantage.

The Reveal's individual names showed strong concentration. Medtronic led buyers at $643 million, followed by Nvidia at $552 million, Broadcom at $260 million, and AMD at $226 million. Semiconductor demand was substantial, but Marvell's $214 million sell imbalance ran against that theme. Welltower, Costco, and ASML also appeared among the larger sellers. Those name readings describe the Reveal, rather than the final closing mix.

At the Reveal, information technology carried about $1.5 billion of net buying, with health care adding $548 million and financials $343 million. Consumer staples, real estate, and communication services offset part of that demand. Industrials were nearly balanced in dollars despite a positive symbol lean, while consumer discretionary showed positive dollars alongside a negative symbol lean.

The overall feel was a buy-heavy Reveal that failed to hold into the close. The final snapshot leaned 80.4% toward sell dollars and 70.2% toward sell symbols. That broader late selling deserves more weight than the earlier technology concentration when assessing the closing flow.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work
How to read the MIM

Today at 9:15 a.m. ET: Tom Incorvia

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Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s October 14 session moved from an overnight upside objective into a deep Cycle Day 1 decline after CPI. David’s updates followed the change in price structure, while the room’s discussion emphasized reading the current setup, studying execution and avoiding decisions driven by the previous day’s experience.

Overnight setup and Cycle Day 1

• David began with 7855 as the line in the sand. Before the inflation release, he reported that the overnight market had held that reference and reached the second upside objective at 7875.

• His initial continuation case was conditional: additional strength above that objective could open a retest of the recent range highs. The subsequent CPI response changed the immediate setup; the overnight target did not remain an automatic reason to stay bullish.

CPI reaction and the downside map

• After the 8:30 a.m. ET release, David described the first reaction as sharply lower. His updates then marked the second downside target at 7835 and the third downside target at 7825 as fulfilled.

• He identified 7825 as a key response level. The distinction mattered: reaching a projected objective was an observation about the decline, while the quality of the response still had to determine whether stabilization was developing.

• The room discussed rising Treasury yields and rate expectations alongside the price move. David’s practical emphasis remained on the structural references rather than allowing the headline alone to make the trading decision.

Trade opportunities and setup study

• Members shared several examples labeled BLT shorts, a BLT long and a first-pullback interpretation. The discussion included requests to see the setup and questions about how a discount reversal fitted the idea.

• These were examples and interpretations shared in the room, not a verified list of executed trades. The available posts do not establish fills, stops, position sizes or a complete profit-and-loss record.

• David supplied a PTG University lesson on premium and discount reversals. The useful takeaway was to study how the setup forms and how the relevant structural area responds, rather than treating a label as sufficient confirmation.

Execution and platform checks

• A member reported simulated fills occurring well away from the submitted order level. The room also discussed Sierra Chart versions, separating software concerns from the validity of a trading idea.

• David initially identified version 2957 as stable. In a later follow-up, he said the PTG developer had confirmed issues with version 2972 and advised staying on 2957. This was a platform note from the room, not evidence of a market outcome.

Projected decline and range expansion

• At 10:12 a.m. ET, David reported that the Cycle Day 1 projected average decline had been fulfilled into the 7803 handle. A later update looked for stabilization within that average-decline zone.

• By late morning, he characterized the session as a deep Cycle Day 1 and said the decline had exceeded the Wednesday average daily range of 75 points. That changed the scale of the session without establishing that a lasting reversal had begun.

• A member challenged an intraday range figure, and David acknowledged the correction. He clarified that 75 points was the Wednesday ADR reference. Keep that average separate from the realized high-to-low range.

Capital preservation and discipline

• One member described passing on a setup because a similar idea had failed the previous day, only to see the new example work. The discussion centered on recognizing that today’s conditions need their own assessment.

• Other comments focused on hesitation, distraction and the inner critic. These were process observations; they do not support a claim that every participant followed the same approach or achieved the same result.

References and lessons

• The progression from 7875 overhead to 7835, 7825 and the 7803 average-decline area gives the sequence of David’s updates, rather than a forecast for the next session.

• The clearest lesson was to separate a reached target from confirmed acceptance or rejection. The room’s search for stabilization was a developing observation, not proof of a completed bottom.

• David posted morning A4 statistics with a past-performance caveat. No numerical performance claim is included here because the text alone does not establish the statistics’ definitions or the results of individual trades.

October 14 PTG strategy · Premium and discount reversals lesson

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group’s October 15 preview is defensive ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET data releases, with the response at channel support setting the near-term test.

Backdrop and catalysts

• The group is watching PPI, retail sales, jobless claims and the regional manufacturing surveys at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by business inventories at 10:00 a.m. and crude inventories at noon.

• Its preview highlights inflation concerns, pressure on AI-related trades and the interaction among Treasury yields, technology credit and equity leadership. These remain the group’s market framing.

• The group reports a bearish whale bias ahead of the data on elevated overnight large-trader volume.

ES levels and response

• The short-term channel bottom at 7713–7718 is the immediate support test. A break that holds below the channel would turn that area into potential resistance.

• The 50-day moving average near 7778 is potential loose resistance. Higher trendline resistance zones are 7896–7901, 7915–7920 and 8010–8015.

• Deeper trendline support is 7412–7417. The group’s reported five-day average daily range has expanded to 67.75 points; the data reaction should guide the next decision.