It was about 6 to 8 months ago, and a few times before that, when I told the PitBull that Trump had gone off the rails. He would fire back at me, saying Trump was just doing his job. But the more I brought up Trump's crazy, impulsive antics, the more the PitBull started to crack. It was a gradual process, but after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, he finally said, "Trump is going to lose his base." I had been thinking that long before he said it, and as the craziness increased, I knew the Republicans' chances of winning the midterm elections were shrinking by the day.

Trump's 43% approval rating in John Zogby Strategies' November 1–2 poll, his inability to end the war, rising inflation, and high gasoline prices only added to the growing list of problems facing the Republican Party. I really wasn't paying much attention to the TV or the news, but when the ES and NQ sold off during Tuesday night's Globex session, I knew it wasn't going to be good for the Trumpster. I remember the voting map after Trump won his second term. It was a red wave that has now turned blue.

They say the incumbent always loses the midterms. I had never heard that, but historically, midterm elections favor the party out of power. From 1938 through 2022, the president's party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterm elections, or roughly 91% of the time. The only exceptions were Bill Clinton in 1998 (+4 seats) and George W. Bush in 2002 (+8 seats). Obama lost 63 seats in 2010, Trump lost 41 in 2018, and Biden lost 9 in 2022. The bottom line is that midterm losses are the historical norm, not the exception, but losing control of Congress is not inevitable.

Donald The Lame Duck

I don't want to make today's OP about politics, but it's hard to avoid. Trump's first two years back in office have been marked by sweeping tariffs, aggressive foreign policy, and a costly war with Iran that disrupted global trade and sent energy prices soaring. Now, following the Democrats' sweeping midterm victory, winning control of both the House and Senate for the next Congress, Trump faces a major shift in Washington, with increased oversight and resistance to his domestic agenda.

While acknowledging that the Iran war and higher gasoline prices contributed to Republican losses, Trump says he has no regrets. The question now is whether he escalates the war, seeks a diplomatic solution, or turns his attention to trade and Ukraine. Just as Trump's return to the White House brought a major political shift, Democrats taking control of Congress marks another.

As I've always said, I didn't vote for Trump or Biden, and I believe the system needs an overhaul. My top three concerns remain 1) immigration, 2) the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran wars, and 3) inflation. I could easily make it a top 10 list, but I think we all know what that would look like.

“Comin’ Back to Me”

By Tom Incorvia

Jefferson Airplane.

The last couple of weeks have delivered a steady stream of technology headlines. When the news gets loud, I look to the auction for the truth.

State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)

Since early June, XLK has built a value area between roughly 172 and 198, about five months of two-sided trade. Probes below in July and above in October were both rejected. Despite the recent news, XLK sits near 176, in the lower part of value. A market in balance tends to stay in balance, and it is easier to remain inside accepted value than to break below it.

Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

AVGO shows the same structure on a larger timeframe. Its value area of roughly 313 to 440 dates back to September 2025, more than a year of trade. Excursions below in February and March, and above in June, all failed. Price now sits near 325, at the lower part of value. The longer value develops, the more energy it takes to break it.

Putting It Together

Both charts sit at the lower end of mature, accepted value with no evidence of acceptance below. That favors a rotation higher, possibly toward the opposite extreme: the 190s for XLK and 420 to 440 for AVGO. What would change my view is time and trade building below value rather than a quick probe and rejection.

Headlines move prices in the short term. Structure tells you where they are likely to go.

About Tom Incorvia

With 35+ years of trading experience, Tom Incorvia brings a practical, real-world perspective to market analysis. Trained in Market Profile under Peter Steidlmayer, his approach centers on reading market structure through volume and price.

Explore Tom’s course: Volume Profile: Dynamics of Fair Value.

November’s Fourth Trading Day Favors the Upside

By Rich Miller / HandelStats

The S&P 500 has historically shown an upside tendency on November’s fourth trading day, closing higher in 30 of 46 observations (65.22%), compared with 16 declines.

Following an up day, the index advanced in 19 of 28 occurrences (67.86%). When the fourth trading day also fell on a Thursday, following a higher Wednesday close, it rose in 8 of 12 occurrences (66.67%).

The historical up-day rate stays near two-thirds across all three studies. The additional conditions reduce the sample size without materially improving the frequency of gains. These figures measure how often the market rose, rather than the size of the resulting move.

Source: HandelStats historical research.

November’s fourth trading day: Historical up-day rate

S&P 500 percentage of occurrences closing higher.

The ES went from an election-night washout to a sharp recovery yesterday. Globex opened at 7610.25, traded down to 7490.00 during the 10:05–10:10 p.m. ET interval Tuesday, and then worked back through the overnight range. By the last five minutes before the cash open, it was at 7683.25. That was a 193.25-point recovery from the low before the regular session even began.

Cash trade opened at 7683.00, with 7679.75 marking the regular-session low. Buyers pushed the ES up to 7746.25 during the 1:05–1:10 p.m. ET interval, but could not hold that high into the close. The afternoon settled into a narrower two-way trade. The ES was at 7724.00 at 3:50 p.m., and the final regular-session five-minute close was 7721.75. The 4:00 p.m. snapshot was 7726.00. After-hours trade lifted the last price to 7734.50 by the 5:00 p.m. session close.

The official ES settlement was 7720.50, up 123.75 points, or 1.63%, from Tuesday. Full-session volume was 2.33 million. The NQ recovered from 27615.75 overnight to a 28969.00 high and settled at 28566.75, up 261.00 points, or 0.92%. In the end, both markets recovered substantially, but the ES cash close remained 24.50 points below its high. The next test is whether buyers can build on that recovery after such a wide session.

Wednesday’s MIM history showed a split closing-auction picture. At 3:51:02 p.m. Eastern, the feed’s all-market aggregate carried $5.7 billion in outstanding buys against $6.9 billion in sells, leaving a $1.3 billion net sell imbalance. The NYSE subset was net buy by $0.6 billion, while the Nasdaq-100 subset was net sell by $2.0 billion. These are overlapping views, not amounts to add together.

The all-market balance briefly approached neutral at 3:54:02, then moved back toward selling. From 3:54:02 to 3:55:02, outstanding sell dollars increased by $0.6 billion to $6.6 billion, while buys fell to $5.0 billion. Net selling reached $2.3 billion at 3:57:02 before narrowing to $1.8 billion at 3:59:02.

Both gross sides contracted during those final two minutes: buys declined from $3.8 billion to $2.8 billion and sells from $6.1 billion to $4.6 billion. That narrowing is consistent with normal auction pairing, but the snapshots cannot isolate matching from revisions or cancellations. It is not, by itself, evidence of a price reversal. Reported symbol coverage also changed, so these are aggregate snapshots rather than a fixed-basket flow measure.

The 4:00:02 update showed $0.9 billion in buys, $2.2 billion in sells and a $1.3 billion net sell balance. That update is not a verified auction execution total. These figures come from dated MIM historical feed snapshots; no historical size ranking or causal claim about the index’s close is established.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work

How to read the MIM

Don't trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

Thursday, November 5 — Tom Incorvia

Tom’s Market Profile session starts today at 9:15 a.m. Eastern.

Watch Tom live today at 9:15 a.m. Eastern.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s November 4 discussion followed an early squeeze into two-way trade, a tactical shift toward shorts against the high, and a buying response at the opening-range midpoint. David adjusted his references as the morning developed rather than treating the opening direction as a fixed all-day forecast.

Opening context and patience

• Members came in focused on the large overnight move and the possibility of a squeeze. The useful execution theme was patience: one member cautioned that missing a trade costs nothing, while chasing into a gamma wall can be expensive.

• Another member emphasized waiting for a pullback into support and noted the approaching ISM release. Those comments framed the risk around entries; they were not evidence that everyone in the room held the same position.

The early upside reference

• At 9:48 a.m. ET, David flagged 7730 as the Gamma Guys’ one-sigma level. It gave the room a concrete reference for evaluating the early advance rather than extrapolating the overnight move without a nearby checkpoint.

• By 10:06 a.m., he described more two-way trading and balancing near the high of the day. The discussion had moved from the squeeze itself to how price behaved once the initial momentum slowed.

A tactical change in lean

• At 10:26 a.m., David shifted his lean toward shorts against the high. That was a conditional location-based view, not a declaration that the whole session had turned bearish.

• At 10:38 a.m., he also noted that further downside was not developing and sellers were being absorbed. Two minutes later, he described the A10 short as playing out.

Balance and reclaim levels

• David marked the initial balance as established at 10:33 a.m. and gave its midpoint as 7709. At 10:46 a.m., his working “sandbox” was approximately 7710–7740.

• The lower opening-range references were 7697, 7688 and 7680. He subsequently said bulls needed to reclaim 7710–7712. Keeping the separate initial-balance and opening-range references distinct mattered as the market moved between them.

The midpoint buying response

• At 11:29 a.m., David called attention to a buying response at the 7688 opening-range midpoint and asked whether anyone had caught it. The accompanying chart showed the response near that reference.

• At 11:45 a.m., he reported a move of 38 handles from the opening-range midpoint.

Late-morning follow-through

• By 11:52 a.m., David described a strong rally with little pullback before stepping out for lunch. Shortly afterward, he noted crude oil falling while ES was rallying.

What the sequence emphasized

• The morning’s progression rewarded keeping both sides of the map available: the short lean against the high was followed by an explicitly identified buying response lower down.

• The practical lesson in the posted discussion was to avoid chasing, watch the reaction at a defined level, and update the lean as price returned to or reclaimed the relevant range. Those principles are more useful than treating a single early call as a permanent directional commitment.

PTG daily trade strategy

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group enters today’s session with a slightly bearish large-trader bias and a focus on how the ES handles overhead resistance after yesterday’s sharp reversal. Its morning plan treats oil, geopolitical headlines and shifts in technology leadership as potential sources of volatility, rather than reasons to commit to a direction before price confirms it.

Resistance and the bullish test

• The group is watching 7730–7735 as an initial trendline reference.

• DTG places its 50-day moving-average reference at 7749.50. In its framework, overtaking that reference would shift the bias toward the bulls.

• The next descending-channel resistance zone in the written plan is 7765–7770. Further overhead references are 7891–7896, 8019–8024 and 8083–8088.

Downside references and execution

• The group’s lower trendline support zones are 7453–7458 and 7430–7435. These are chart references, not forecasts that price will reach them today.

• Its slightly bearish early bias comes with lighter overnight large-trader volume than in recent sessions. Watch whether that tentative lean is confirmed or rejected as participation improves.

• Keep headline risk in view and distinguish a test of a level from sustained acceptance beyond it.