I am sure you have heard this saying, it's a new day and a new way. Well that's how I see these markets. Good or guys, new days create new ideas and new opportunities and this is how I saw it after writing the Opening Print Monday night and here is how I saw it after the ES and NQ  regular session open I posted this in the MrTopStep IMPRO trading room:

🟨 MR TOP STEP | LIVE ES TRADING COMMENTARY
November 3, 2026 | Dboy

🟨 9:30:35 AM ET — 470K ES traded?
🟢 9:31:56 AM ET — Early bias: UP ▲
🔴 9:44:31 AM ET — VERY OVERSOLD ▼

After a minor pull, back the ES traded up to 7623.75. That's the good part, the bad part is the trade got very messy before AMD and AMGN late in the day. It really looked to me like  the index markets got the midterm jitters. For the last 2 to 3 weeks, every poll showed the democrats gaining ground, and they were right. The big question is: how will the markets react? 

2026 Midterm Elections: Who Will Control Congress?

Wall Street Journal | November 3, 2026

The The Wall Street Journal article, “See How Race Forecasters Project the Senate and House—and Pick Your Own Winners,” examines the congressional races that could determine control of Washington.

The article's main points are:

• House of Representatives: Election forecasters see a strong possibility of Democrats regaining control from Republicans, who hold a narrow majority.

• Senate: Republicans currently control the chamber, but Democrats are competing in more states than initially anticipated while defending Democratic-held seats.

• Competitive races: A relatively small collection of closely contested elections could decide which party controls each chamber.

• Forecasts can change: The article's interactive tracker lets readers examine individual races, compare race ratings, and choose their own projected winners.

Election Odds: What the Markets Are Pricing In

Separate WSJ election-day reporting, citing Polymarket and Kalshi, provides numerical probabilities to accompany the article's qualitative race analysis.

The prediction markets cited by the WSJ placed the Democratic probability of controlling the House at roughly 95%, compared with more than 75% for the Senate. Those figures are market-implied probabilities, not polling percentages, official results, or the race forecasters' own numerical ratings.

For ES and NQ traders: The important question is how much of the anticipated election outcome was already reflected in stock prices before voting ended. A result broadly consistent with expectations may produce less of a market reaction than a surprise, although interest rates, oil, earnings, and geopolitical developments can also drive price action.

Honestly, I just want to get past the midterms and get the markets refocused.

Cycle Day 1 — Reset, Reload, Re-engage

By David D Dube, Polaris Trading Group

S&P 500 (ES)

****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings

We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos

Note: Trading Room RECAP archives link: PTG-RECAP

🔄 Transition: Cycle Day 3 → Cycle Day 1

Reset…Reload…Re-engage.

CD3 CYCLE is a distant bragging-rights memory now as it fades into the rearview mirror.

Inventory clears.
Weak hands get rinsed.
Late shorts exhale like they just dodged traffic.
Late longs quietly Google “career alternatives.”

And just like that —

🎬 Cue the bell.

Brand. New. Cycle Day 1.

This is not continuation energy. This is foundation-pouring, blueprint-drawing, steel-beam-installing energy.

Cycle Day 1 doesn’t chase.
Cycle Day 1 builds.

It’s mechanical. It’s calculated. It tests Average Decline Levels with surgical intent. It forces emotional traders to show their cards early — and usually fold by noon.

This is where professionals:

✔️ Let price come to them
✔️ Let structure define bias
✔️ Let risk dictate size
✔️ Let patience do the heavy lifting

No headline chasing.
No social-media-induced FOMO.
No “this feels like” trades.

Just levels.
Structure.
Execution.

Volatility may expand. But so does our edge — because we operate from preparation, not prediction.

PTG doesn’t panic. PTG positions.

Welcome to Cycle Day 1.

Hard hats on.
Blueprints out.
Let’s build.

The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan

1️⃣ Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force

Think current — not prediction.

When price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue — we align.
Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.

When structure flips?
Same process. Opposite direction.

No emotion.
No hero trades.
Just flow.

Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave — you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work. 🌊

The market rewards traders who ride momentum, not those who try to predict the tide.

2️⃣ Trade Location, Not Emotion

Where you trade matters more than when you trade.

The PTG approach is built on high-probability locations, not impulsive entries.

We focus on:

• Support / Resistance Structure

• Stacker Zones

• Premium vs. Discount

• ATR Pullbacks

• Liquidity Targets

When price reaches these locations, we engage with purpose — not impulse.

Amateurs chase price.
Professionals wait for price to come to them.

Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. 🎯

Patience builds consistency.
Consistency builds confidence.
Confidence builds longevity.

The Bottom Line

Pillar #1: Trade with the dominant force
Pillar #2: Trade from advantageous location

Master these two principles and everything else becomes execution.

Simple. Structured. Repeatable.

The Toolbox Matters — But the Hand Using It Matters More

The PTG Trader Toolbox isn’t just well-equipped — it’s built for every market condition you’ll encounter.
Yes… even that strange, rarely-used wrench you didn’t know you’d eventually need.

But here’s the truth:

Your edge doesn’t come from using everything.
Your edge comes from mastering the right tools — the ones that align with your plan, your personality, and your execution style.

Inside the PTG Member’s Area, the resources run deep.
Dozens of educational videos.
Real trade breakdowns.
Live market walkthroughs.

Each one designed to compress your learning curve, eliminate guesswork, and help you build confidence through clarity — not noise.

And when the chart starts moving fast…
When volatility rises…
When emotions try to sneak into your decision-making…

PTGDavid is in the room.

Calm.
Focused.
Professional.

Guiding traders through structure.
Grounding decisions in probabilities.
Keeping the community aligned with what actually matters — price, structure, and discipline.

Because in the end…
Tools don’t make traders successful.

Mastery does.

🎯 Cycle Day 1 Focus

Scenarios for today’s trade

🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control

Acceptance north of 7575 ±5

Upside objectives:
• 7585
• 7595
• 7605

🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset

Acceptance south of 7575 ±5

Downside objectives:
• 7545
• 7535
• 7525

📊 Key Reference Levels

• PVA High Edge: 7608
  PVA Low Edge: 7590
• Prior POC: 7597

⚠️ Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

   ES

--
"The safest place to look for a new trade is at the end of the first correction to a new swing"...W.D. Gann

David D DubePolaris Trading Group203.350.9548 - Trading Desk

[email protected]PolarisTradingGroup.com

Disclaimer: Trading of securities, options and futures may not be suitable for everyone and involves the risk of losing part or all of your money. Commentaries are educational in nature and are designed to contribute to your general understanding of financial markets and technical analysis. Use it how you want and at your own risk. We are not registered investment or commodity trading advisors. This information is a general publication that reflects our own opinions and is not a specific recommendation to any one individual. You must consult your own broker or investment advisor for investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is essential. 

About David Dube

David D Dube has been a professional trader for over forty-one years, including senior trader management roles at Lehman Brothers and UBS Investment Bank. He brings deep global markets experience to the PTG community and manages Polaris Trading Group Capital Management, a registered CTA.

Explore David’s PTG Daily Trade Strategy Briefing.

Yesterday’s ES session made the bulls work for their recovery. Globex opened at 7584.00, slipped to 7546.00 in the 2:05 a.m. five-minute interval, and then clawed back the overnight decline. The rebound reached 7604.75 in the 8:30 a.m. interval, but that early strength did not hold into the bell. Globex finished at 7580.00, down 4.00 points from its open and 5.50 points above Monday’s official settlement.

Regular trading opened at 7580.00. The first five minutes established the cash-session low at 7576.50, and buyers gradually worked the contract higher. The rally reached 7616.75 around 11:00 a.m., gave back part of the advance, then pushed to the day’s 7623.75 high in the 1:30 and 1:35 p.m. intervals. That was the high-water mark. The afternoon retreat reached 7587.25 in the 2:55 p.m. interval, taking back much of the intraday advance without breaking the morning low.

The last regular-session five-minute bar finished at 7596.25, a 16.25-point gain from the cash open and 21.75 points, or 0.29%, above Monday’s 7574.50 settlement. Tuesday’s official settlement was 7596.75, up 22.25 points, or 0.29%. These are separate measures: the table uses each session segment’s last bar close, not the settlement or a point-in-time trade snapshot. Cleanup trading added another 13.00 points, taking the 5:00 p.m. last price to 7609.25.

In the end, ES recovered from a 77.75-point full-session range, but the afternoon pullback kept it well below its intraday high. Validated five-minute bars totaled 1,574,901 contracts; official cleared volume was separately reported at 2,002,583. NQ’s regular session rose 34.00 points from 28266.50 to 28300.50, then finished the full futures session at 28416.00. The day rewarded the overnight recovery, but holding the gains proved harder than reaching the highs.

The November 3 MOC historical playback showed $2.6 billion to sell at 3:51:02 p.m. ET across All Markets. Outstanding sells were $6.1 billion against $3.5 billion to buy, with 394 sell symbols and 288 buy symbols. Dollar pressure was more concentrated than the roughly 58% sell-side symbol share.

Oracle led that snapshot’s buy list at $406.9 million, followed by Apple at $233.4 million and Alphabet’s Class A shares at $154.7 million. AMD led the sell list at $339.2 million, with Analog Devices at $246.2 million and Broadcom at $219.4 million. These individual positions are not a substitute for the full-market balance.

Information Technology carried $2.4 billion of net selling, while Communication Services showed $383.2 million to buy. Through 3:55:02 p.m., outstanding buys increased $644.9 million while sells contracted $2.2 billion, taking the net balance to $255.1 million to buy. That describes unmatched pressure, without establishing who submitted, canceled or revised orders.

The net buy reading reached $1.2 billion at 3:59:02 p.m., including a $326.6 million increase in outstanding buys during that minute. The 4:00:02 p.m. update showed $498.8 million to buy, with both gross sides lower. That contraction is compatible with normal pairing, not proof of a bearish price fade or the auction’s executed result. Sell symbols still outnumbered buys, 352 to 300. These historical snapshots differ from the dashboard’s first-tick cache; historical size rankings and a comparable prior-session trend are not yet established.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work
How to read the MIM

Don’t trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

David Dube / Polaris Trading Group — Live in The Pit

Wednesday, November 4, at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Join David Dube live in The Pit today at 9:15 AM ET for the morning futures session. Watch David live.

Dani — Markets & Mindset

Join Dani live Wednesday, November 4, at noon ET.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Selected reports for Wednesday, November 4. Times are Eastern.

• Uber (UBER): third-quarter results conference call at 8:00 a.m.

• Qualcomm (QCOM): fourth-quarter and fiscal-year results after the close; conference call at 4:45 p.m.

• Arm (ARM): fiscal second-quarter results after the close; webcast at 5:00 p.m.

Polaris Trading Group

Tuesday’s Polaris Trading Group session began with a Cycle Day 3 recovery framework after the overnight decline. David first focused on recovering lost references, then reported the initial upside objective fulfilled. The room’s attention shifted toward a bearish structural change and the first pullback opportunity before an unsettled afternoon.

The overnight roadmap

• Before the open, David said Monday’s weakness had continued overnight and the 7545 lower target from the prior evening’s briefing had been tagged.

• The bear script required acceptance below 7595, with a five-point tolerance. Its downside roadmap was 7575, 7555 and 7545. These were the room’s conditional levels, rather than a new forecast for Wednesday.

• The starting framework therefore separated the already-reported overnight move from the next decision around the line in the sand.

The Cycle Day 3 objective

• David identified 7558.25 as the Cycle Day 1 low. His primary goal for Tuesday was to trade above that reference.

• The secondary goal was to reclaim the lost 7570 handle and trade back within value. The opening plan depended on recovery and acceptance, rather than buying merely because the overnight target had been reached.

• David described the cycle as statistically positive, while his operative condition remained recovery above the Cycle Day 1 low.

Reclaiming the sandbox

• At 8:36 a.m. ET, David reported price back at the 7595 line in the sand. He said further clearing and conversion to upper support were needed for additional upside.

• By 10:17 a.m., he was leaning long above 7585. His 10:30 a.m. update retained that bias but said bulls still had to convert 7600 to upper support.

• Other room comments described grinding trade and the risk of getting chopped when the watched trend reference flattened.

The morning objective

• At 10:56 a.m., David restated the bull script: acceptance above 7595, with a five-point tolerance, followed by references at 7615, 7625 and 7635.

• He then posted a Cycle Day 3 range measure of 7613.25 and described a discount long setup.

• At 11:04 a.m., David reported the 7615 target fulfilled, citing the November 3 Daily Trade Strategy briefing.

From objective to shift

• After describing successful morning objectives, David reported an A4 short at 11:34 a.m., with three profit targets, a stop at entry and a runner working. At the same time, he said an A10 long was close to stopping.

• At 11:44 a.m., he identified the first pullback short after the shift as in play. His next update linked that opportunity to the completed upside objective and subsequent bear shift.

Decision process

• David asked whether traders had recognized the shift and had planned for a possible change once the upside objective was fulfilled.

• He framed those questions through the OODA process: observation, orientation, decision and action. The emphasis was on useful information and conditional responses.

• The practical instruction was to prepare the next decision from the changing structure, rather than assume that the earlier long bias had to remain valid for the rest of the session.

The afternoon

• David stepped away around noon to vote. At 2:30 p.m., he warned of a potential afternoon rug pull and told the room to stay alert.

• Later participant comments raised the possibility of trapped longs and described the afternoon as difficult to read. The available posts do not establish a final trade outcome or a new closing target.

• Tuesday’s review therefore ends with the documented shift in focus: the first upside objective was reported complete, then the room looked for short-side alignment after a structural change.

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group is watching an overnight ES rebound within a broader short-term downtrend. Its large-trader read is bullish into the U.S. session, while its moving-average framework remains bearish.

Market backdrop and catalysts

• The midterm result puts divided government back in focus: Democrats won control of Congress, according to AP. DTG expects policy uncertainty and the AI investment debate to keep volatility elevated.

• AMD reported 97% year-over-year growth in data-center revenue in its November 3 earnings release, providing a company-specific counterpoint to the political uncertainty.

• Watch the trade report at 8:30 AM ET, ISM Services at 10:00 AM ET and the EIA petroleum report at 10:30 AM ET.

DTG’s tactical map

• DTG sees the 7525/20 downtrend-channel support area as the base of the rebound. Its first overhead reference is 7715/20, followed by the channel top at 7778/73.

• The group’s 50-day moving-average reference is 7748.00; its bias remains bearish below that line. These are DTG’s technical reference levels, not live quotes.

• Additional trendline resistance: 7891/96, 7993/98 and 8063/68. Additional support: 7482/77 and 7430/35.