On Friday morning, the ES made a low at 7664.00, down 90.25 points, or −1.16%, and the $NQ sold off down to 28,665.75, down 896.25 points, or −3.03% from Thursday's close.

After some sideways-to-up price action, the ES sold off down to 7628.25, and the NQ sold off down to 28,614.75. By 3:00 p.m. Friday, the ES had made a low at 7558.25, down 196.00 points, or −2.53%, while the NQ made its low at 28,232.75. The minus 3 standard deviation (−3 SD) was 7562.50 for the ES and 28,221 for the NQ.

I didn't take a big hit on my JPMorgan funds because I was not heavily invested in the tech/AI funds. I remember when the salesperson was going over my options, and she was suggesting some exposure to some of the funds they have. I told her straight out that I was not interested and voiced my concerns. The only real hit was on my gold miners ETF, which I liquidated early Friday morning.

I am always honest about my skill set, saying things like, "I am not a Wall Street economist," but I don't think there is any denying that I was worried about the bonds before they collapsed. I also continued to write about the Mag 7 and the top 10 to 20 stocks, their concentration, and how much they made up of the total market capitalization. While I do not watch CNBC, Bloomberg, or FOX Business, there are a few talking heads I pay attention to.

I have to admit I didn't catch the downside Friday. I tried to buy it a few times after the open and got out fast, but after the ES and NQ crashed again late in the day, I did catch the long in the ES after the −3 SD and made 35 points.

If you recall, October started out going up. In fact, the ES gained 156.50 points, or 1.99%, over the first four trading sessions, from October 1 through October 6, 2026.

And the NQ gained 132.50 points (+0.43%) over the final two trading sessions of September 2026, rising from 30,566.25 to 30,698.75. It then gained another 784.50 points (+2.56%) over the first four trading sessions of October 2026, rising from 30,698.75 to 31,483.25, for a total gain of 917.00 points (+3.00%) over six consecutive trading sessions, from September 29 through October 6, 2026.

I think we all know I call October the "spooky month," but what changed? Why did the markets reverse so hard? I think the first part was what I call the "midterm election hangover."

After the ES and NQ rallied during the first four trading sessions of October, the markets reversed sharply starting October 7 as crude oil surged above $100, Treasury yields climbed toward multi-decade highs, and inflation fears returned.

At the same time, investors began questioning the massive amounts of money being poured into AI infrastructure, triggering aggressive selling in $NVDA, $AVGO, $MU, and other semiconductor stocks.

Stronger-than-expected inflation data added fuel to the fire, turning what started as profit-taking into a sustained technology-led selloff.

The combination of higher energy prices, elevated interest rates, and growing concerns over AI valuations was simply too much for the ES, and especially the NQ, to withstand.

As you know I am a big advocate of the PitBull’s Thursday lows before the Friday expression. Without adding too much, July and August Fridays were up 2 down 2 but September Fridays were up 4 in a row and the winning Friday tradition carried on right into the first 2 Fridays of October for 6 Fridays in a row.

NQ Friday Performance — July Through October 2026

The NQ finished higher on 10 of 17 Fridays (58.8%) from July through October 2026, but the seven losing Fridays overwhelmed the gains, producing a combined loss of 1,121.25 points. The biggest damage came in October, particularly October 16, when the NQ fell 752.25 points (−2.50%), and October 30, when it plunged 1,028 points (−3.48%). Despite winning more Fridays than it lost, the NQ's sharp downside moves demonstrate how a handful of heavy selling sessions can wipe out weeks of gains.

The takeaway: The NQ won most Fridays, but the bears won the war.

Did the ES Hold Up Better? 

ES Friday Performance — The Bears Won Scary October

From July through October 2026, the ES finished higher on 10 of 17 Fridays (58.8%), compared with just seven losing Fridays. But despite the bulls winning more sessions, the bears delivered the bigger blows, leaving the ES with a combined Friday loss of 63.25 points. The real damage came during Scary October, when the ES fell 86.75 points (−1.11%) on October 16 and another 140.25 points (−1.81%) on October 30.

The bottom line: The bulls won more Fridays, but when Scary October came to an end, the bears won the war.

If I am sure of one thing it's that the general population has been under a lot of stress. Inflation doesn’t affect the people who have a lot of money, it affects the people/families that live paycheck to paycheck, and the worrisome part of this is that inflation will continue to rise.  And if all the other negative things going on around the world don’t help, this story is almost like the line going off the chart. 

Global Security Warning: Pentagon Prepares for Possible Attacks on U.S. Power Grids as Americans Are Urged to Stock Up on Food and Water

November 1, 2026 | National Security & Emergency Preparedness

The reports are real, but there is no confirmed public warning that a nationwide power-grid attack or major war is imminent.

A new Pentagon initiative, combined with a warning from former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino, is drawing attention to the possibility that a major international conflict could disrupt electricity, communications, water supplies and critical infrastructure in the United States.

1. Pentagon preparing for a 90-day emergency

On October 25, Fox News reported that the Pentagon's new FORTRESS America initiative aims to make major U.S. military installations capable of operating independently for at least 90 days if civilian infrastructure fails.

The initiative addresses several potential threats:

• Cyberattacks or sabotage targeting electrical grids.

• Interruptions to water, fuel and communications.

• Disruptions to global supply chains.

• Attacks involving drones and other threats to domestic military facilities.

The Pentagon began formally implementing the initiative in early October. These are defense-planning scenarios, not confirmation of an impending attack.

2. Dan Bongino tells Americans to prepare

On October 26, former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino urged Americans to take emergency preparedness seriously.

He recommended keeping nonperishable food, drinking water, batteries, emergency radios and water-filtration supplies available.

His warning included:

Bongino compared personal household preparedness with the Pentagon's efforts to protect military installations. His remarks were personal advice, not an official federal emergency alert.

3. How much food and water should Americans keep?

The U.S. Army and CDC recommend preparing for at least three days without essential services, while the CDC advises storing up to two weeks of water when practical.

Emergency water supply per person

3 days - 3 gallons

7 days - 7 gallons

14 days - 14 gallons

Based on one gallon per person per day. Additional water may be necessary for hot weather, medical needs and pets.

4. What is the actual threat?

The concern is that cyberattacks or physical sabotage could disable essential infrastructure during a broader military confrontation. A prolonged electrical outage could also interrupt fuel distribution, refrigeration, water treatment, communications and payment systems.

However, I found no verified public announcement that the United States is expecting a coordinated attack on its power grid in the immediate future.

The distinction matters: the Pentagon is preparing for a potential emergency, while Bongino is encouraging households to take precautions.

Sources:

• Fox News — Pentagon's 90-day FORTRESS plan (October 25)

• DefenseScoop — Pentagon implementation memorandum

• Mediaite — Bongino's October 26 remarks

• CDC — Emergency water preparedness

Bottom line: U.S. military preparedness for cyberwarfare, infrastructure disruptions and a possible major conflict is increasing. Americans maintaining emergency food and water supplies is a reasonable precaution, but current reporting does not establish that a catastrophic attack is imminent. I know some people will say this is hogwash but this is not Y2K. Based on military intensity, geopolitical consequences, and potential disruptions to global markets, five major conflicts to watch are the Russia–Ukraine war, which threatens energy supplies, natural gas and wheat markets; the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict, which raises the risk of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, surging crude oil prices, higher inflation and pressure on the $ES and $NQ; the Israel–Gaza–Lebanon conflict, which adds to Middle East instability; the Sudan civil war, which threatens regional trade and shipping; and the Myanmar civil war, which creates uncertainty for Asian supply chains and regional investment. Together, these conflicts increase geopolitical risks, threaten global trade and could contribute to greater volatility in financial markets. I did a lot of traveling to the Middle East and the ongoing wars and the high intensity is not just something that is going to go away after there is a peace agreement. AI and cyber attack on power grids, water supplies and food disruption are easy paybacks that can devastate millions of people in a matter of weeks.  

Want a closer look at the charts? Download Trey’s November 1 presentation (PDF).

Friday’s Selloff: The Roadmap for What Comes Next

By Manny Payano

Good morning team. Friday finished with a nearly 2% decline.

3 sigma days are rare.

Before we turn the page to a new week, let’s look back at what happened and lay out what comes next.

The Bigger Picture

The 500-point rally from the July 29 low at 7324 to 7838 gave us the pole of the larger bull flag, which remains intact.

The 50% retracement of that impulse sits near 7581. On September 16, that area supported price around the 7575 low and helped launch the next 300+ point rally. Buyers eventually retested the prior ATH and pushed to a new high at 7897, almost exactly where the 61.8% extension near 7899 projected.

Friday brought us right back there.

ES traded down to 7558, looked below the September 16 low at 7575, and reclaimed it. That does not automatically make Friday’s low the low, but it makes this an important retest of the broader range low.

The Roadmap

What stands out is how cleanly the bearish roadmap walked us lower. We did not start by predicting 7558. We followed the next decision as buyers lost control of each level.

7800-10 — Look Above and Fail

7760-70 — bounced, failed, reclaimed, then failed again

7735-40 — failed

7575-7600 — reached

7558 — RTH low and Look Below the September 16 low

This move did not come out of left field. In 1% Off All-Time Highs. Why Is Smart Money Buying the Dip but Not the Rip? , we discussed the deterioration beneath the index.

We did not need to predict a 300-point decline. We needed to identify where buyers would lose control of the auction, then stay with the move as each level gave way.

What Happened Friday

The early rally attempt came off The Market Blueprint Setup 3️⃣ 🟢 Support Buy 7629 and the Execution Clock AM Low window near 7628, carrying ES back toward 7660.

That was not a random bounce. Price and time came together, and the reaction brought ES directly into an area we had been tracking for weeks.

Buyers could not convert it.

Sellers regained control, ES flushed through the September low and printed 7558. Only then did short covering take over, carrying price back toward the underside of the descending channel into the closing bell.

That channel had been support. Friday it was retested from underneath as resistance.

That first backtest becomes important this week.

Manny’s Take

Sellers have had the ball, and they moved it a long way over the last two weeks. Now the conversation changes.

Friday’s late rally came after more than four hours of sustained selling and was driven largely by short covering. More importantly, liquidity weakened on Friday as price sold off. That tells me the selling is likely not finished yet.

That makes the late bounce even more suspect. The question is not whether price can bounce. It is whether the next rally brings real demand and improving liquidity, or simply another short-covering/gamma squeeze into resistance.

Buyers first need to reclaim the descending channel. The first resistance is 7640-50, around the October 23 low. Above there, 7660-70 aligns with a test of the ascending channel.

If buyers cannot reclaim the descending channel, 7558 comes back into play and 7500-20 becomes the next target. If selling accelerates through there, a test of 7450-75 should not surprise us.

That would represent a meaningful discount from the highs, and heading into the final two months of the year, that is where I would start legging into swing longs.

The work continues. Every day is earned, and this week is no different. You have the roadmap. Let’s get to work.

About Manny Payano

Manny Payano is the creator of The Market Blueprint and the voice behind @manny_trends. He shares practical futures-market analysis, important price levels, potential trading setups, and daily market recaps. His straightforward approach emphasizes preparation, patience, risk awareness, and disciplined execution. Manny’s goal is to help traders better understand price action and approach the market with a clear plan. All content is educational and is not financial advice.

Friday’s selloff leaves a late rebound short of repair

Globex

ES opened Thursday evening at 7709.25, reached 7713.00 in the opening five minutes, and then spent the overnight session working lower. The early high held for the entire trading day. By the 9:00 p.m. period, price was slipping through the 7690s, and the 10:00 p.m. period brought trade into the upper 7660s. Sellers had established the direction well before Friday’s cash opening bell.

The overnight market did not move in a straight line. ES recovered into the 7680s after midnight, traded around 7687 during the 3:00 a.m. period, and made another push into the low 7690s around 5:00 a.m. Those recoveries stayed below the evening high. By 6:00 a.m., the market was back in the 7670s; the 8:00 a.m. period opened at 7667.50. Globex ultimately ranged from 7713.00 to 7664.00 and finished at 7669.50, down 39.75 points from its opening price. Overnight volume was 354,456. The cash session inherited a market already below Thursday’s 7754.25 settlement, with the overnight rebound attempts having failed to repair that gap.

Cash trade

Friday’s cash session opened at 7669.50 and barely extended higher, reaching 7670.00 before selling resumed. The opening five minutes finished at 7655.50. ES was trading around 7637 by 10:30 a.m., and the noon period closed at 7626.25. The decline continued into the afternoon: the 2:00 p.m. period finished at 7589.75, and the session low of 7558.25 came during the 2:50–2:55 p.m. interval.

The late recovery was substantial from that low but incomplete against the day’s losses. During the 3:50 p.m. minute, ES rose from 7598.25 to 7612.00. The cash session finished at 7612.75, down 141.50 points, or 1.82%, from Thursday’s settlement. The final hour reached 7624.25 before ES ended the full session at 7614.50; Friday’s official settlement was 7614.00. Full-session volume totaled 2,374,792.

NQ also took a hard hit, trading from a full-session high of 29180.00 to a low of 28232.75. Its cash session finished at 28527.25, and the full session ended at 28543.00. In the end, both contracts recovered from their afternoon lows, but that rebound left a large part of Friday’s decline intact.

Buy-heavy Reveal gives way to a late sell balance

The Reveal for the MOC on October 30 was $5.6 billion to buy. That narrowed to $2.1 billion before recovering to $4.8 billion at 3:55 p.m. Outstanding sells increased about $1.1 billion into 3:53, while buys fell about $2.4 billion. A sell imbalance appeared at 3:56, buying briefly returned, and the final 4:00 snapshot showed $1.4 billion to sell. The 3:55 period through the close is usually discretionary traders closing out the day, but these snapshots do not identify the participants.

The accompanying Reveal tables showed a semiconductor buying cluster: Nvidia led at $1.2 billion, followed by Micron at $706.8 million and AMD at $528.5 million. Microsoft headed the sell list at $642.2 million, well ahead of Bank of America and MicroStrategy. Those names describe the initial mix, rather than the final closing breakdown.

Information technology contributed $4.0 billion of the Reveal’s net buying, with communication services adding $680.2 million. Staples, utilities and real estate offset part of that demand. Dollar buying was considerably stronger than participation: 71.2% dollar lean against 52.0% symbol lean. The concentration mattered more than a claim of broad, uniform demand.

Overall, Friday’s auction indications changed sides late. Both outstanding sides contracted into the final snapshot, which is compatible with normal pairing; contraction alone does not establish a price fade. The observable result was a sell balance after an initially concentrated buy imbalance. A comparable historical ranking is not yet established, and the final indication does not prove auction execution or the market’s next direction.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work
How to read the MIM

Manny Payano — The Market Open

Monday, November 2: Manny Payano is on the working Pit lineup at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Scheduled YouTube link pending verification.

Don’t trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s Friday, October 30 session began with capital preservation as the organizing principle. David tracked an opening decline, a response inside the projected downside zone, and a later return to September’s low. The discussion moved between setup execution, managing runners and keeping mistakes from turning into emotional decisions.

Capital preservation set the tone

• Before the cash open, David reminded the room that Friday was Capital Preservation Day. The accompanying graphic reinforced that priority before the faster opening moves arrived.

• That framing put risk management ahead of forcing another trade. The day’s later examples included taking targets, accepting a stopped runner and recognizing when remaining on the sidelines was a reasonable choice.

Opening weakness reached early objectives

• Shortly after the open, David noted an early test of the overnight low. He then reported that the Pre-Opening Premium setup had fulfilled all its targets, followed by a chart documenting the developing decline.

• He separately described the pre-RTH A4 short as fully played out. Those were David’s updates on named setups; they do not establish that every room member entered the same trade or received the same fill.

• The posted A4 chart showed the preceding downward move and a turn off its lower area. It provided context for the completed setup without establishing a new entry for readers.

The projected decline zone became the next focus

• David identified 7640–7635 as the lower Cycle Day 1 average-decline projection zone during the opening sequence. When price later reached that area, he explicitly returned to the earlier reference.

• A subsequent chart displayed projection markers near that zone, including 7640.75 and 7635.63, alongside other intraday references. The room was evaluating a defined area, rather than treating every lower print as a fresh short signal.

• Members also discussed a put-wall reference. That commentary supplied another perspective, but it was separate from David’s futures projection levels.

A short runner illustrated execution risk

• David reported an A10 short with three profit targets reached and the remaining runner stopped. The accompanying chart marked A10 near 7664 and showed the intervening swings.

• The distinction matters: reaching several targets and stopping the final piece can occur within the same trade. The room report supports that sequence, without supporting a reconstructed dollar profit, position size or account return.

• Another participant discussed taking a safer exit near A4.

The downside response developed into a reversal discussion

• After the projection zone was reached, David noted a buying response near the Cycle Day 1 target area and the put-wall discussion. The focus shifted from the earlier short objectives to what the response could sustain.

• A participant asked whether RPR was the trigger, and David confirmed that reference. Later posts described a reversal, while the follow-up chart highlighted a Bull Stacker at 7640 and the upward response.

• These were evolving intraday observations. A response at a target zone did not establish that the afternoon would hold those gains or eliminate the need for a fresh assessment.

September’s low returned in the afternoon

• After returning for the final two hours, David shifted attention to a test of the September 16 low and cited the 7573 handle. He later noted that the September low had been reached.

• A member subsequently described a back-test around 7575 with a quick ten-point response.

The session’s practical lesson

• The room moved from completed opening shorts to a downside target response, then back to an older structural low. Following those changes required updating the context instead of carrying the first trade’s bias through the entire session.

• Capital preservation remained the thread connecting targets, stopped runners, selective participation and the discussion of mistakes.

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group is watching whether ES can stabilize within a newly formed short-term downtrend channel after Friday’s selloff. Its early Monday preview carries no whale bias because overnight large-trader volume was too light to be significant.

Structure and bias

• The group treats Friday’s break of the 7687–7692 trendline area as a bearish short-term shift.

• The new channel runs between resistance at 7696–7701 and support at 7546–7551. These are the group’s tactical reference zones, rather than confirmed outcomes.

• The group’s quoted 50-day moving average is 7755.50, with a bearish bias below it; it considers a retest less likely today.

Levels to watch

• Potential resistance zones: 7696–7701, 7740–7745, 7891–7896, 7993–7998 and 8063–8068.

• Potential support zones: 7546–7551 and 7425–7430.

• DTG flags technology leadership, earnings, Treasury yields, election positioning and geopolitical headlines as potential volatility drivers.