I never know when I start writing the Opening Print exactly how it's going to end up. Sometimes it starts out with a theme, and sometimes it doesn't, or the subject is simply whatever pops into my mind. Sometimes good trading or bad trading, and sometimes it's news or a level. I think the markets have entered a new phase that I call "tape bombardment," meaning the markets are constantly getting hit with some type of news headline that cranks up the algos and BOTs. It's human nature, but everyone sells the bad news and then it rallies.

The ES sold off on Globex, opened lower in the day session, never took out the Globex low at 7572.00, traded down to 7582.00 after the open, and then rallied 92.75 points up to 7674.75 before selling off 67.75 points to 7607.00 late in the session. Bottom line, it was a hectic trade with big ups and big downs.

We all know that Jensen Huang resigned following the scandal, but the fallout could  claim one of Trump's lieutenants, former head of Cantor Fitzgerald and current Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Why? Because conspiracy theories are swirling around President Donald Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and former Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, raising questions about whether the administration deliberately looked the other way while Nvidia maintained its lucrative business ties with China. Some speculate that Trump and Lutnick knew about intelligence concerns involving Huang and a suspected Chinese operative but chose to protect Nvidia's business interests rather than national security. Other theories suggest Lutnick may have delayed restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China to benefit Nvidia, while Huang's close relationship with Trump raises additional questions about political influence, preferential treatment, and possible conflicts of interest. The most explosive theory is that senior administration officials knew more than they have publicly acknowledged and helped shield Nvidia from scrutiny. While these allegations have fueled political controversy, there is no publicly established proof of a coordinated conspiracy, corruption, or intentional cover-up, but as they say, shit rolls down hill and it may be about to roll over billionaire Howard Lutnick.

I personally didn't know about these conspiracy theories, but I do remember Trump's involvement in Intel (INTC), and guess where it was trading at the time? Intel was trading around $20 a share when President Trump first publicly targeted the company on August 7, 2025.

Trump, Lutnick, Huang, and Intel: A $14 Billion Connection That Raises Questions

There is an interesting connection between President Donald Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Nvidia's Jensen Huang, and Intel (INTC). In August 2025, Trump pressured Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to resign over concerns about his Chinese business ties, only to meet with him days later and negotiate a deal giving the U.S. government approximately 10% of Intel in exchange for $8.9 billion in federal funding. Less than a month later, Huang's Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, purchasing approximately 215 million shares at $23.28 each and establishing a strategic partnership involving AI processors and PC chips. That put the Trump administration and Nvidia in the position of becoming two major Intel shareholders within weeks of each other, with nearly $14 billion in combined commitments. Lutnick was also a central figure in the administration's semiconductor policy. The timing raises an interesting question: Did Trump, Lutnick, and Huang discuss Nvidia's investment before it was announced, or did the administration's intervention help pave the way for the deal? Huang has maintained that the government was not involved in Nvidia's decision, and there is no public proof of improper coordination. Still, the sequence of events highlights the increasingly close relationship between Washington, Silicon Valley, and billions of dollars in semiconductor investments.

The INTC Front Run Slam Dunk 

After the Trump administration announced its purchase of approximately 10% of Intel (INTC) on August 22, 2025, at $20.47 per share, the stock surged to an intraday high of $142.35 on June 30, 2026, representing a staggering $121.88-per-share gain, or 595.4%, in just 213 trading sessions, although the increase cannot be attributed solely to the administration's involvement, it sure didn’t hurt to have Trump and friends backing the deal.

Intel (INTC) was not the only stock that rallied after President Trump publicly praised a company, announced government support, or promoted policies benefiting its business. Some of the largest gains involved semiconductor companies, AI stocks, computer manufacturers, and critical-mineral products.

Trump Bump Study: How Much Did The Front Running Make? 

Here is a link to Hudson Labs' research report called the "Trump Bump Study." I think we all know this administration has taken front-running and market-moving political influence to a level we have never seen before in the history of the markets.

And last but not least... 

The November 8, 2026, 60 Minutes interview, in which correspondent Ross Douthat confronted President Donald Trump about his net worth increasing by approximately $3 billion since returning to office.

Ross Douthat says "no story looms larger" than the latest AI developments | 60 Minutes - CBS News

Trump Questioned About His $3 Billion Wealth Increase

60 Minutes • November 8, 2026

Douthat questioned Trump's personal wealth, family cryptocurrency ventures, foreign investors, and potential conflicts of interest.

Watch interview and read CBS transcript

Douthat cited a Forbes estimate that Trump's net worth had risen by $3 billion. Trump responded, "Well, so did everyone," and told Douthat he should have owned stocks. Douthat replied that his own net worth had not increased by $3 billion.

CBS News+1

You can also find the $3 billion exchange on YouTube.

Friday the 13th: A Small-Sample SPX Study

By Rich Miller, HandelStats

I’ll leave the black cats alone. What caught my eye was a Friday the 13th that also happened to be November’s 10th trading day after a down Thursday. I went back through my S&P 500 data to see what happened at the open and where those sessions finished.

November Fridays contributed nearly half the net Friday point gain across all 12 months, in just 198 of the 2,362 sessions. The point totals add up each Friday’s change from the prior trading day’s close.

What happened at the open?

Both the opening gap and the closing change are measured against Thursday’s SPX cash close.

The only gap-down was also the only session that closed lower. In 2015, the session high stayed 1.33 points below Thursday’s close. In 2020, the session low stayed 15.56 points above it. The smallest gap, in 2009, was the only one that filled. SPX dipped to 1085.33, below Thursday’s 1087.24 close, before finishing higher.

Three of the four sessions closed higher, but the +48.14 points in 2020 did most of the work. The other three combined lost 8.66 points. So I’m keeping this one in the fun-study pile. The price I’d mark on the chart is Thursday’s close.

Don’t miss morning gap insights in the Pit room this morning with Danny and Rich.

Rich Miller is a former Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) floor trader with over 40 years of experience in the futures markets. He is the founder of HandelStats, a quantitative research service providing statistically derived levels based on options pricing, volatility, and time-based market structure.

Founder’s Note

Brent Kochuba

Stocks reversed lower after an early rebound, as traders weighed NVDA CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation alongside a jump in treasury yields.

NVDA fell as much as 14% at the open before paring losses to close at $166.19 (-4.3%). NBIS (-16.8%) slid after trimming its 2026 revenue outlook and raising its spending plans, while ONDS (-7.2%) fell as margins narrowed.

The 10-year yield moved back above 5% after a weak 30-year auction, while energy (XLE +1.5%) gained alongside oil. Memory (DRAM -2.6%), TSM (-1.9%) and MU (-1.6%) lagged, and AMAT (-3.6%) slid into its report, while CSCO (+1.2%) gained.

SPX declined 78bps from its intraday high and closed at 7,593 (-0.35%), just above our 7,590 Risk Pivot. NDX declined 91bps from its high to close at 28,289 (-0.30%). VIX rose 7.8% to 18.85 and VVIX rose 8.5% to 98.13.

This morning we moved the Risk Pivot to SPX 7,590, and the market tested both sides of that level. It opened near 7,551, then rallied through the Risk Pivot to roughly 7,653 by late morning. The market drifted lower through the afternoon, slipped back below 7,600, and closed just 3 points above the Pivot.

The 7,600 strike was the key positioning feature. TRACE Net OI (0DTE off) shows dealers were long up to 24K puts at 7,600, in the 99th percentile of the past 90 days, which likely provided positive gamma at that strike. As that position fell to roughly 16K into the close, dealers likely had less reason to buy dips at 7,600, and SPX slipped back below the strike.

We also flagged ~150 as initial support for NVDA. The stock’s intraday low was $148.80 before it recovered to close near $166. We also argued the risk today was that IV was underpriced and tomorrow’s SPX expiration gained roughly 2.5 vol points.

S&P 500 HIRO recorded approximately -8.95B in cumulative delta flow, with 0DTE accounting for -7.25B. Flow was split between put buying (-5.45B) and call selling (-3.51B). Essentially all of the call selling and about two-thirds of the put buying came in 0DTE, with roughly -1.8B of longer-dated put buying.

Most of that selling came after the late-morning high, as SPX gave back its gains and slipped below 7,600. The longer-dated put buying suggests some traders added protection ahead of PPI and next week’s events.

Our S&P Equities HIRO (the sum of delta notional flow for the individual constituent stocks of the index) finished near +1.02B, with 533M from 0DTE. Flow was split between put selling (+606M) and call buying (+410M).

That positive flow was concentrated in the morning, when single-stock put selling and call buying helped lift the index through 7,600. Those flows largely shut off after late morning, leaving index-level selling to drive the afternoon drift lower.

Implied volatility rose across the curve. On our Fixed Strike Matrix, tomorrow’s 11/13 expiration, which captures PPI, gained about 2.5 vol points near the money, with downside strikes up the most (about 3.4 vol points at 7,530). Expirations from 11/16 through 11/30 rose roughly 0.5 to 1.1 vol points, led by 11/18, the first expiration after NVDA earnings.

At-the-money IV for 11/13 is now 14.7% (about 93bps), marking a notable increase on the day. The 30-day at-the-money IV is also near 14.7%, still below the ~20% 1-month realized vol we flagged this morning. This is consistent with our view that implied vol remains cheap relative to recent realized moves.

Earnings Season Update

CSCO and AMAT reported after the close. At the time of writing, CSCO is up about 4% after hours, roughly half of its ±7.5% implied move, after beating on revenue and earnings and raising its full-year outlook. AMAT is up about 0.5%, well within its ±6.3% implied move, after record revenue and guidance above estimates. NU reports later this evening, with options pricing a ±6.1% move.

CSCO is trading near $106 after hours. Our Key Gamma Strike and Put Wall both at $100 could be important gamma levels to monitor in tomorrow’s session.

Tomorrow, we will be watching whether SPX holds our 7,590 Risk Pivot through the PPI release, with 7,500 support below and 7,600-7,700 resistance above. We will also monitor the 7,600 put position in TRACE, put/call flows in HIRO, and the reaction to CSCO and AMAT earnings overnight.

About SpotGamma

SpotGamma is an options analytics firm founded by Brent Kochuba in 2020. Its research and proprietary tools help traders understand how options positioning and hedging flows can influence stocks, futures, and major indexes.

SpotGamma profile · Visit SpotGamma · Explore SpotGamma TRACE · Explore HIRO

Globex: sellers set the early tone

Thursday’s Globex opened at 7616.75, below Wednesday’s 7640.50 official settlement. The ES pushed up to 7628.50 during the overnight trade but could not hold the recovery. Sellers drove it to 7572.00 before the cash open, leaving a 56.50-point overnight range. The final premarket price was 7584.50, down 32.25 points from the Globex opening.

That put the cash session on the back foot, but the overnight low survived. The important question became whether buyers could turn the lower opening into another recovery, or whether the early weakness would carry through the day.

Cash trade: a sharp recovery, then a late fade

The ES opened regular trade at 7584.25 and held a session low of 7581.50. Buyers then carried it to 7674.75 before the afternoon recovery gave way. The 93.25-point regular-session range made for another two-way day, with the closing price surrendering much of the advance from the morning low.

At 3:50 p.m. ET, the ES was 7611.50. It finished the regular session at 7616.25, gained ground in cleanup, and ended futures trade at 7621.75. Official settlement was 7615.25, down 25.25 points from Wednesday. Volume was 1.72 million.

The NQ also recovered from a lower opening. It opened regular trade at 28064.00, ranged from 28044.50 to 28652.25, and finished regular trade at 28387.75. Its final futures price was 28401.50, while official settlement was 28384.50.

The ES rallied hard enough to erase its early weakness, but the retreat from 7674.75 kept the finish from looking convincing. Buyers defended the lower opening; sellers still found room to press the afternoon. That leaves both sides with clear reference points heading into Friday’s inflation report.

MOC: Net Buying Turns to a Sell-Side Balance

The Reveal for yesterday’s MOC was $0.6 billion net to buy. The all-markets net imbalance reached $1.8 billion at 3:55 p.m., flipped to $52.0 million to sell at 3:56, and reached $749.0 million to sell at 3:59. The final 4:00 update showed $544.0 million net to sell, not a verified auction execution total.

The gross sides help explain that reversal. From 3:55 to 3:56, outstanding buys fell from $4.3 billion to $2.6 billion while outstanding sells rose from $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. Both sides then contracted into the final update. Such contraction can accompany normal order pairing; these snapshots do not establish cancellations, participant identity or a price response.

At the 3:51 Reveal, Broadcom led the buy side at $255.7 million, followed by SanDisk at $189.1 million and Texas Instruments at $141.7 million. Nvidia showed $138.4 million to buy. Microsoft carried $170.6 million to sell, Tesla $116.5 million and Marvell $102.6 million. These are Reveal-time readings, not closing totals.

Information technology was roughly $1.0 billion net to buy at the Reveal, with health care adding $194.5 million. Financials were $268.3 million to sell, industrials $151.6 million and utilities $124.2 million. Across all markets, 370 sell-side symbols outnumbered 308 buyers despite the positive net dollars.

The useful distinction is concentrated early net buying versus a later sell-side net balance. A comparable historical ranking is not established; this flow alone is not a directional price forecast.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work

How to read the MIM

Don’t trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

Friday, November 13: Rich Miller of HandelStats. Today’s YouTube stream is scheduled for 9:15 a.m. ET, rather than the 9:00 a.m. shown in the recurring artwork. Watch on YouTube.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s Thursday, November 12 session followed a sharp overnight decline, a morning recovery and renewed afternoon weakness. David treated it as Cycle Day 1, working from downside projections to a reclaim of key references, then back toward the afternoon balance area. The room’s focus moved with price: first the overnight break, then the recovery through 7625, and finally the possibility of a closing pin around 7616.

Overnight setup and Cycle Day 1

• The overnight recap identified a break below the 7635 line in the sand, with price challenging the 7585–7565 lower-target area. That established the opening framework: the earlier reference had failed, and lower projections were in play.

• David separately identified 7550–7542 as the Cycle Day 1 projection zone. These were downside objectives in the plan, distinct from the nearer average-decline reference.

• A subsequent update said the 7585 average-decline target had been fulfilled. The room then shifted attention toward the immediate trading range rather than continuing to describe every downside projection as an outstanding target.

Morning conditions and gamma references

• The immediate battle zone was 7600–7625. Those levels gave the room a defined area to watch as the market worked away from the overnight weakness.

• David highlighted negative gamma positioning and relayed a reference to negative gamma below 7600 in SPX. He explicitly translated that 7600 SPX reference to roughly 7620 in ES; the two instruments’ quoted levels were kept separate.

• Member questions centered on net gamma exposure, market-maker offsets, and how the positioning information appeared alongside the room’s tools. Those exchanges were educational discussion, while David’s price updates supplied the tactical references.

Recovery through 7625

• The morning plan called for a clearance of 7625 to convert that level into pullback support. The condition mattered: the proposed support role followed a break above the reference.

• The next stated target was 7642, described in the room as the prior close. David’s following update marked that target fulfilled, documenting the progression from the 7625 trigger toward the next reference.

• Later, price was described as consolidating near the 7650 handle. The sequence in the posts moved from the overnight downside targets to a recovery through the morning battle zone, then consolidation at a higher reference.

Trade selection and the lunch break

• Near the 7650 consolidation, David described the trade edge as slim and took a lunch break. That was a specific change in his assessment of opportunity after the earlier move.

• The useful distinction was between a completed move toward a target and a fresh setup. His update did not present consolidation near 7650 as an automatic continuation signal.

• Discussion also covered the room’s step moving average, higher-timeframe overlays, tape reading and gamma levels. These remained tool and process discussions rather than additional reported executions.

Afternoon deterioration

• On returning from lunch, David said price had been consolidating negatively and that market internals continued to deteriorate. The emphasis had shifted away from the morning recovery.

• Price had returned to 7625, now called the key reference level. The current sandbox was narrowed to 7625–7645, giving the afternoon discussion a different working range from the earlier 7600–7625 battle zone.

• A later update said price had traversed both the upside and downside Cycle Day 1 range projections. David’s commentary captured a two-way session rather than a single uninterrupted directional move.

Late references and the closing pin

• Late in the session, David watched 7615–7620 for potential closing pinning, conditional on the MOC not disrupting that area.

• He then identified the current point of control at 7616 and followed with an update that price had reached 7616. The late posts therefore connected a stated reference with a subsequent observed touch.

• Thursday’s recurring lesson was to keep updating the working range. The room moved from the failed overnight reference to a recovery trigger, reduced opportunity around lunch, afternoon deterioration and a much narrower closing focus.

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group’s Friday, November 13 preview keeps the focus on a choppy, headline-sensitive session ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET PPI release. The group’s early large-trader read was slightly bearish on relatively light overnight activity.

Backdrop and catalysts

• The group is watching Treasury yields, the dollar and concentration in mega-cap technology for clues to whether early bounces can hold.

• PPI is the principal scheduled U.S. data catalyst. Fed appearances later in the day add potential turning points.

• The group favors flexibility: stabilization in rates and rotation within technology could support the ES, while renewed pressure would leave rallies vulnerable.

Trendlines and tactical references

• The short-term downtrend channel top is 7640–7645. A sustained break would bring the 7695–7700 trendline area into view.

• Additional trendline resistance is 7881–7886. Lower trendline support areas are 7305–7308 and 7203–7208.

• The group places the ES between its 200-day moving average at 7460.75 and 50-day moving average at 7718.00.