October's inflation report delivered another setback for Wall Street as consumer prices rose more than economists had forecast, triggering a sharp selloff in Treasury bonds and putting pressure on stocks. Although inflation moderated from September, the Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% for the month, above the 0.3% consensus estimate. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also came in hotter than expected.

The stronger-than-expected inflation numbers raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may have to tighten monetary policy further. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan added to those concerns with hawkish remarks suggesting interest rates may need to rise more aggressively. Following the CPI release, traders began pricing in roughly a 10% probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike at the December Fed meeting.

The reaction in the Treasury market was swift. Bond prices fell sharply, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield toward 5%, while the 2-year yield surged nearly 20 basis points. Stocks also came under selling pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite falling approximately 1%. Nvidia extended its losses from the previous session as concerns surrounding a reported espionage scandal added to the pressure on technology shares.

One of the more important developments was that Treasuries and stocks declined together. Instead of bonds acting as a safe haven during an equity selloff, inflation and Fed concerns pressured both markets.

What I would watch next:

The 10-year Treasury yield around 5% is a particularly important psychological level. Continued selling in the ZB, ZN and TN contracts would suggest investors remain concerned about inflation, additional Fed tightening and financing costs.

The 2-year yield deserves just as much attention. Its approximately 18-basis-point jump shows how quickly traders repriced near-term Fed policy. If short-term yields keep rising faster than longer-term yields, that would reinforce the message that the bond market is worried about more aggressive rate hikes.

Bottom line: Tuesday wasn't just a bad day for bonds. It was a warning that inflation remains capable of driving a simultaneous repricing of stocks, Treasuries, and Fed expectations. For ES and NQ traders, a renewed rise in Treasury yields—especially alongside rising crude oil—would be a reason to remain cautious about chasing rallies.

Join Dani Sittloh and Trade Anchors this Saturday, November 14, from noon–2:30 p.m. ET in the Pit. Special guest Stephanie Radkay follows with Sound Bath Integration from 2:30–2:50 p.m. ET. The workshop is free, with a free workbook for everyone who registers. Visit the workshop landing page.

PTG Trade Strategy 11.11.26

By David D Dube, Polaris Trading Group

S&P 500 (ES)

NEW PTG Trading Room Recordings https://polaristradinggroup.com/videos/

We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Live Stream Videos https://www.youtube.com/@PolarisTradingGroup/streams

Note: Trading Room RECAP archives link: PTG-RECAP https://polaristradinggroup.com/blog/ptg-daily-trade-strategy/

📊 CYCLE DAY 3 — RESPECT THE ODDS

The 92.27% Positive Three-Day Cycle statistic provides the historical backdrop.

Notice we said probability…

Not prophecy.

The statistic gives us the directional edge.

Price still has to prove it.

🟢 BULL SCRIPT

Acceptance Above 7545 ±5

Bull Roadmap

⬆️ 7575

⬆️ 7585

⬆️ 7595

🔴 BEAR SCRIPT

Acceptance Below 7545 ±5

Bear Roadmap

⬇️ 7535

⬇️ 7525

⬇️ 7515

📊 Key Structural Reference Levels

These aren’t forecasts.

They’re magnets.

- PVA High Edge: 7540 - PVA Low Edge: 7504 - Prior POC: 7518 - Cycle Day 1 Low: 7381

These are the areas where the auction naturally slows, rotates, negotiates—and ultimately decides.

Trade the structure.

Respect the auction.

Let the market reveal its hand before you play yours.

⚔️ PTG EXECUTION PROTOCOL

Take only Triple-A setups.

Manage the $risk.

ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in place on the exchange.

No chasing.

No predicting.

No heroic attempts at catching falling knives.

⚠️ Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

ES

"The safest place to look for a new trade is at the end of the first correction to a new swing"...W.D. Gann

David D Dube Polaris Trading Group 203.350.9548 - Trading Desk

[email protected] PolarisTradingGroup.com

Disclaimer: Trading of securities, options and futures may not be suitable for everyone and involves the risk of losing part or all of your money. Commentaries are educational in nature and are designed to contribute to your general understanding of financial markets and technical analysis. Use it how you want and at your own risk. We are not registered investment or commodity trading advisors. This information is a general publication that reflects our own opinions and is not a specific recommendation to any one individual. You must consult your own broker or investment advisor for investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is essential.

David D Dube has been a professional trader for over forty-one years, including senior trader management roles at Lehman Brothers and UBS Investment Bank. He brings deep global markets experience to the PTG community and manages Polaris Trading Group Capital Management, a registered CTA.

Explore the Daily Trade Strategy Briefing

Tuesday’s ES session opened at 7580.75 and reached 7598.75 before the overnight decline carried it to 7509.00. By the cash open, the ES was trading at 7523.00, leaving buyers with a steep recovery job.

The regular session tested 7493.00 on the downside and 7566.25 on the upside. Buyers recovered enough ground to finish the cash session at 7544.50, a gain of 21.50 points from the opening level, though still 29.75 points below Monday’s official settlement.

The recovery continued after the cash close. The cleanup period reached 7559.25 before the ES finished the full futures session at 7555.00. That left it down 25.75 points from the session open and 19.25 points, or 0.25%, below Monday’s official settlement. Tuesday’s official settlement was 7544.25.

The NQ’s regular session opened at 27743.00, traded between 27516.00 and 28090.00, and closed at 27836.00. That was a 93.00-point recovery from its cash opening level. Its official settlement was 27835.25.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, sellers controlled the overnight move, but the cash session and cleanup both finished above their opens. The full-session range was 105.75 points and total bar volume was 1737732 contracts, with 1360247 trading during regular hours. The rebound showed buyers responding to lower prices; the failure to recover Monday’s settlement left more work before they could claim control.

The Reveal for the MOC was $3.7 billion to buy. That cushion eroded to $3.095 billion, $2.828 billion, and $2.537 billion before collapsing to just $80 million at 3:55 p.m. A rebound reached $735 million, but buying faded again and the final 4:00 p.m. reading was $176 million to sell, with $821 million of buys against $997 million of sells.

The Reveal's biggest buyers included Eli Lilly at $337.27 million and Apple at $322.58 million. Micron, Nvidia, Microsoft, and SanDisk added a clear technology concentration. Broadcom led the opposing side at $126.39 million to sell, followed by Gilead at $108.02 million, with Mastercard and Moody's adding financial-sector supply. Semiconductor demand was substantial, but Broadcom showed it was not uniform.

The accompanying Reveal sector mix put technology ahead with $1.842 billion net buying and 63.4% of symbols leaning buy. Health care, consumer discretionary, and staples also supported the aggregate. Industrials and financials remained net buyers in dollars despite more symbols leaning sell, a useful warning that dollar strength was broader than the participation underneath it.

Overall, this felt like a strong initial buy indication that could not hold its ground. The temporary rebound mattered, but the final reversal carried more weight than the opening size. With 57% of symbols leaning sell at the last reading, I would want renewed, broader buying before treating the next bounce as durable.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work

How to read the MIM

Wednesday, November 11: David Dube / Polaris Trading Group is listed for 9:15 a.m. ET.

Watch David’s scheduled stream at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Don’t trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group spent Tuesday, November 10, working through an inflation-driven selloff, a choppy cash session and a late recovery. David kept the focus on Cycle Day 2 range projections, the opening range and options-related support. The room's approach shifted with the tape: look for a recovery when buyers gained ground, then protect capital when the market stopped offering a clean edge.

Cycle Day 2 and the early decline

• At 8:42 a.m. ET, David described price taking a sharp dive toward the Cycle Day 2 projected range between 7520 and 7505. Five minutes later, he pointed out a tradable bounce from those projections. That gave the morning discussion a defined area to watch rather than a reason to chase the initial decline.

• By 9:48 a.m., he described the early rhythm as consistent with a normal Cycle Day 2. Members also discussed the cycle sequence and how a grace day fits into it. The practical focus remained the day's developing price action and the reference levels already marked.

Inflation sets the backdrop

• The room circulated the morning CPI release and discussed its effect on interest-rate expectations. The immediate trading response was the drop into the projected range and the bounce that followed. Later commentary returned to inflation, higher yields and pressure on technology shares as the backdrop for the selloff.

• The useful distinction was between the news catalyst and the next trading decision. A difficult headline did not eliminate the possibility of a bounce; a bounce still needed to clear the market's nearby obstacles before the long side could gain traction.

Opening range and long-side conditions

• At 10:02 a.m., David expressed a long lean on a move above the opening range. The condition mattered: buyers needed to make progress beyond that range, rather than merely produce another uptick inside it.

• At 10:06 a.m., he said the put wall had held at 7522 and described it as support. Members emphasized staying aligned with the market and marking levels in advance. That support reference remained central to the discussion as the session developed.

Options support and the risk beneath it

• Members examined options positioning and the strength of individual strikes, including net open interest and gamma. The discussion treated positioning as part of the setup, with attention to whether a level had sufficient backing.

• Later in the morning, a member warned that a break of put support could open the door to a larger decline. That was the opposing scenario to the recovery idea: support holding favored one path, while losing it would change the risk for longs.

Chop calls for restraint

• By 11:32 a.m., David called the market all chop with no clean trade edge and told the room to keep its powder dry. The message was straightforward: when the setup deteriorated, there was no need to manufacture a trade.

• At 11:48 a.m., he warned about the possibility of price cratering and urged caution on longs. Two minutes later, he said it was critical for bulls to hold the line. The morning's long lean had become a much more selective proposition.

Afternoon buying and the closing recovery

• At 1:58 p.m., David noted another bullish attempt but said buyers still needed to get past the opening range. He then highlighted 0DTE call buying and, shortly after 2:09 p.m., said the 7500 call line had doubled, reporting approximately $11 billion alongside a chart.

• After the closing bell, David noted a nice rally into the close and viewed the highlighted call line as a likely catalyst. A member later said the call-line and put-wall discussion had helped limit overtrading on the short side. The day's lesson was to keep the key levels visible, adapt when conditions changed and save risk for a clearer opportunity.

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group sees a contest between improved AI sentiment and pressure from higher yields and a firmer dollar. With Veterans Day thinning the calendar, the group is watching rates and earnings headlines for direction.

Levels and conditions

• The group leans bearish on lighter overnight large-trader volume.

• The short-term downtrend channel near 7650/45 remains resistance, with the lower trendline near 7313/10.

• Moving-average references are 7723 above and 7455.50 below. Additional trendline resistance sits at 7669/64, 7719/14 and 7891/86; support at 7319/16 and 7245/40.