We live in an era of global economic and geopolitical turmoil, but the real catalyst behind today's aggressive market swings is the dominant role of algorithms, High-Frequency Trading (HFT), and AI-driven trading systems. While market uncertainty is nothing new, the landscape has been fundamentally altered by these automated tools. They are the primary engines behind the massively expanded trading ranges and the staggering surges in volume that we haven't witnessed since April 2025.

There is no doubt that over the last few months, we have witnessed an historic spike in automated program trading. A clear indication of this algorithmic takeover comes directly from the CME Group's recent press release, which reported a record-breaking October Average Daily Volume (ADV) of 30 million contracts—a 15% increase year-over-year. When liquidity thins and geopolitical headlines break, it is these AI bots and high-frequency algorithms that aggressively expand the day's boundaries, pushing trading ranges to historic extremes.

I have been writing about program trading, algorithms, and HFT for years, but I think traders need to pay even more attention to how much of today's volume is being driven by machines. We know these are not our fathers' markets or charts, but when was the last time you saw the ES fall 380 points and rally 200 points, or the NQ fall 1,900 points and then rally almost 1,400 points from its Globex low to the next day's high? Well, the simple answer is, you haven’t.

I read that there is clear evidence that U.S. equity and futures trading volumes have surged, but one important distinction needs to be made: higher volume does not automatically mean more HFT or AI bot trading. I say that's a total crock of shit.

The latest exchange data confirms record activity. Separately, institutional research shows growing adoption of AI-powered trading and portfolio-management technology. When ES volume jumps from 1.8 million contracts a day to 2.5 million or even 3.5 million contracts, it suggests an increase in program trading (HFT, algorithms, and AI bots). And even if it's institutional AI-powered trading and portfolio management, it's still program trading.

And remember, there are still 36 trading days left in the year.

Are HFT and AI bots taking over? I think they are! 

The distinction between these trading systems matters:

A July 2026 Coalition Greenwich survey found that 45% of brokers expected to increase staffing in algorithmic sales. That points to continued institutional investment in electronic execution.

A Reuters report on October 14 found that 91% of asset managers surveyed by Mercer intended to expand their use of AI-based portfolio tools during 2026. However, fully AI-managed ETFs represented only about $30 million in assets, a tiny fraction of the overall ETF market.

I have to admit, I have not traded well in the big rage days over the last three weeks. I don’t blame anyone but myself, but I do know that when you start bottom picking or selling too early it's like a freight train that can inflict great pain. As the old saying goes... trade smaller and pick your spots better. 

Join Dani Sittloh and Trade Anchors this Saturday, November 14, from noon–2:30 p.m. ET in the Pit. Special guest Stephanie Radkay follows with Sound Bath Integration from 2:30–2:50 p.m. ET. The workshop is free, with a free workbook for everyone who registers. Visit the workshop landing page.

Dis-connecting the Dots

By Bosier Parsons

Large disruptions to markets due to data, news, fiscal and monetary policy, politics, and forces of nature are the most crucial times for high-level thinking and analysis. What has changed and what was the magnitude or velocity of the change? This past week, the change and velocity were extreme. But that’s truly the risk of crowded trades and crowd mentality. Now comes the high-level thinking.

Broader participation and improved market breadth is what everyone was hoping for as a healthy sign for a continuation of the bull run. But it was the reverse of this that provided such a large warning signal. So, as important as it is to connect the dots in a Bear-to-Bull phase of market cyclicality, it’s arguably more important to DIS-connect the dots after major market disruptions.

During a Bull-to-Bear reversal stage, re-balancing is perhaps more difficult, requiring more creative thinking with portfolio positioning and risk management. Of course, there will still be some obvious unwinds in some highly correlated relationships. But your creativity can pay large returns in thinking through new correlations and accordingly the next potential leadership.

I’ve been talking for a couple months in the Chatroom about the potential for oil and markets to rally together. But what if I have this backwards? What if oil and markets begin to accelerate together but to the downside?

Was it a buyers’ capitulation during the extreme pile-in behavior by the largest cap stocks into their data center investments? Is it possible that the economic data is about to turn as well, and that the Fed was afraid to hike rates at a faster pace because they’re afraid of what they’re seeing under the hood? Is it time for a well-needed recession to correct the upside extreme of relentless money-printing?

In the last month I heard a story about a massage therapist who has eighteen credit cards, constantly rotating usage and payments to keep afloat. And on the other side, I’ve heard from high-wealth individuals who, pre-election, moved to their largest cash position they’ve had in two decades.

My thought right now is to be careful what we wish for. Lower crude prices and lower interest rates could be coming quickly amidst the next recession. Main Street already thinks we’re in one. While they usually only last about three to six months, it may not be as simple as just our run-of-the-mill recessionary cycle.

But maybe the next wave higher can also be led by Main Street - smaller businesses and smaller market caps taking easy advantage of super innovation - taking a little more bite out of the big company’s pie?

I don’t know how it will all play out, but as a trader, I sure like the action, anticipation, and creativity of connecting and dis-connecting the dots.

A full-time ES futures trader based in Colorado Springs. Bo joined the Pitbull Traders family to give back to the trading community the same way his father mentored him.

Learn more about Bo’s trading consulting.

Globex: buyers take back the overnight tape

Monday’s ES recovery started well before the cash bell. Futures opened Sunday evening at 7371.00, dipped to 7363.75 and worked back above 7400.00. The overnight high reached 7476.50, giving buyers more than 112 points off the low before regular trading began. The handoff to cash came at 7465.25, comfortably above Friday’s 7402.00 settlement. That was a substantial repair from the opening weakness, though the overnight high still needed to be cleared.

The early buying did not travel in a straight line. ES pushed into the 7420s early in the evening, reached the 7450s later, then slipped back into the 7380s during the 2:00 a.m. ET hour. Buyers recovered that setback and brought price back through the 7440s ahead of the U.S. morning. The 7:00 a.m. hour produced the overnight high. By the opening bell, the market had gained 94.25 points from its Globex opening price, with volume of 371,565. The main message was the recovery itself: sellers had another opportunity below 7400.00, but could not keep the market there. Cash traders inherited a firmer tape and a nearby upside hurdle at the overnight high.

Cash: the rally extends, then gives back the late push

The ES opened regular trading at 7465.25 and printed its 7455.75 cash low in the opening five minutes. Buyers quickly took control. By the 10:30–10:35 a.m. ET interval, price had rallied to 7541.25, and the midday trade held much of that advance. The rally eventually reached 7600.50 in the 3:15–3:20 p.m. interval. That was 144.75 points above the regular-session low, but the final push could not hold. ES was at 7585.00 at 3:50 p.m. and finished cash trading at 7572.00, still up 170.00 points from Friday’s settlement.

The final hour brought a smaller recovery, with the last price at 7580.25 at 5:00 p.m. Official settlement was 7574.25, up 172.25 points, or 2.33%. Full-session volume was 1,880,995, while official cleared volume was 1,973,517. NQ also rebounded sharply: its session ranged from 26751.25 to 28129.25, and official settlement reached 28014.50, up 929.25 points, or 3.43%, from Friday. In the end, buyers delivered a strong repair across both indexes. The late ES pullback left some work around 7600.50, but the session finished far above its overnight lows.

Semiconductor selling dominates a fading MOC imbalance

The Reveal for the MOC on November 9 was $2.1 billion to sell. Selling initially eased to $0.841 billion, then rebuilt to $3.162 billion before dropping sharply. The final displayed close snapshot showed $0.325 billion to sell, after a late rebound to $1.061 billion. The 3:55 p.m. period through the close is usually discretionary traders closing out the day; that is trading context, not identification of these orders.

The Reveal name tables showed concentrated semiconductor selling. AMD led at $596.63 million, followed by Micron at $568.93 million and Broadcom at $538.19 million. Intel and Applied Materials added to that pressure. Buyers had a different mix: Eli Lilly led at $484.97 million, while Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft attracted substantial buys. Those opposing technology flows matter: this was not uniform selling across every large technology name.

The accompanying sector snapshot put Information Technology at $3.526 billion net sell, dwarfing the $259.30 million Financials sell. Health Care offset $783.29 million, and Consumer Staples added $493.60 million of net buying. All Markets symbol breadth still leaned 54.0% buy despite net selling dollars. That divergence points to concentrated dollar pressure rather than equally broad selling. These are Reveal tables, not the final-close sector breakdown.

The overall feel was heavy but uneven. The sell imbalance became much smaller into the last displayed reading, yet never turned net buy during this sequence. I would respect the semiconductor concentration while watching whether the defensive and selected mega-cap buying can persist. A smaller closing imbalance alone does not prove a price reversal.

Want to follow the auction pressure behind this recap? Explore the MIM’s live imbalance snapshots and sector view.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work

How to read the MIM

Join The Pit live for free and follow the morning market discussion with the MrTopStep community. Get free access to The Pit.

Tuesday, November 10: Quick Draw Bo / Bosier Parsons at 9:15 a.m. Eastern.

Watch Bo’s scheduled stream.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s Monday, November 9 session began with an overnight rebound and developed into a Cycle Day 1 advance. David’s updates followed the reclaim of 7490, the move through 7515 and the test of 7545–7565. The room also recorded a stopped-out reversal attempt before the long lean returned.

Overnight setup and Cycle Day 1

• Before the cash open, David reported that Sunday’s Globex bounce had fulfilled all three upside targets through 7465, where price was then trading. That established the starting point for Monday’s discussion rather than a fresh intraday entry.

• Monday began a new Cycle Day 1. The early plan retained the possibility of a delayed reclaim of 7490, the previous lost Cycle Day 1 level. David treated that reference as an objective to recover, then updated the room when the reclaim occurred.

The reclaim and first upside objectives

• The D-Level Money Box was described as in play during the opening trade. David subsequently reported that the previous Cycle Day 1 low at 7490 had been reclaimed on the grace day.

• Once that level was recovered, the next stated objective was 7515, identified as Friday’s key pivot. A later update explicitly marked 7515 fulfilled. The sequence moved the discussion from a possible reclaim to the next observed objective.

Initial balance and the next decision zone

• David identified 7545–7565 as the next key zone. He later recorded the initial balance at 7455–7541, giving the room a defined opening range alongside the higher decision area.

• When price reached 7545–7565, the plan called for watching that zone for a marked pullback. The update described where a pullback would logically develop if sellers responded; it did not make the zone an automatic short or establish a completed reversal.

Long setups and reported target completion

• A midmorning update reported that all targets on the discount long had been fulfilled. David also posted that the ES Open Range Breakout Strategy had played out with all targets fulfilled.

• Alongside the price updates, David referenced a volatility-unwind scenario. The practical focus in the written discussion remained the reclaimed levels, the next upside objectives and whether the pullback zone would attract a sustained response.

The reversal attempt and stop

• The session included an unsuccessful counter-move: David explicitly reported being stopped out on the AR10 flip

• The stop was followed by another assessment of market direction. Rather than leaving the earlier reversal idea in place, David reported that the pullback zone had held firm and shifted the lean back to long until another change developed.

Returning to the long lean

• Subsequent posts reported price back at the current high of day. David emphasized getting aligned long after the shift he had highlighted earlier, keeping the stance responsive to the developing trade.

• By late afternoon, he reported that price had exceeded the Cycle Day 1 objectives. He then discussed the potential for a close on the highs. 

Late-session context

• The final auction-related post reported a $3.8 billion MOC sell imbalance. The closing-flow update followed the afternoon discussion of price holding near the highs.

• The day’s useful progression was the change in references and stance: recover 7490, complete 7515, assess 7545–7565, acknowledge the stopped flip and return to the long lean after the pullback zone held.

PTG live-stream recordings

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group is watching whether the ES rebound can extend toward the top of its short-term downtrend channel. This morning’s preview leans bullish on relatively light overnight large-trader volume.

Levels in play

• Nearby channel resistance is 7664–7669, followed by 7714–7719 and 7886–7891.

• Potential trendline support sits at 7316–7319, then 7240–7245.

• The group marks the 200-day moving average at 7453.75 as loose support and the 50-day average at 7730.25 as a more distant resistance test.

Session watch

• The preview flags oil, Treasury yields and AI-sector sentiment as areas to watch for changes in risk appetite.

• DTG reports a five-day average daily ES range of 222.0 points, up from Friday’s 199.25. The group’s focus remains on reactions at the marked channel levels in a volatile market.