There is a lot of anxiety concerning the midterm elections. My sister, an L.A. Democrat, called me to tell me her daughter is getting married and wants to send me an invitation and get my address. As always, we spoke about the other brothers and sisters and their woes, and at the end of the 20-minute phone call, like she always does, she made some negative remarks about Trump.

I thought long and hard about writing this because I didn't want to politicize the OP, but it's very hard to avoid the elephant in the room, though I'm not sure that's possible because the American people have never been so divided. Because I didn't vote for Biden or Trump, I actually have no bone to pick. Do I think either president did a great job? I really don't know what to say, because we all know when you run the highest office in the United States, there are perks that come with the office as they take advantage of the power they wield for their own financial benefit, family, and friends. In Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, November 19, 1863, he said "Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.” It seems to me that the rich have gotten richer and the poor have become poorer. But this view isn't really about Biden or Trump; it is about the choices people make when they vote for and elect a candidate and the policies they feel strongly about.

Of course I have my own concerns, but I asked ChatGPT what the top concerns voters have in the US are:

Top Voter Concerns

The latest Pew Research Center survey confirms the economy is the leading concern at 84%, followed by democracy (73%), healthcare (68%), education (62%), and immigration (59%). The survey was conducted September 28–October 4, among U.S. adults, with these figures representing registered voters.

I agree on the top five concerns, although if I expanded it, I think number 6 should be the wars. But my number 1 is at the bottom—immigration—and while this may not be on the top of others' lists, I think no matter who you vote for you need to look at what's going on in Europe, specifically in France, Belgium, England, and Spain.

France's Growing Unrest — Contagion Across Europe?

What started as localized protests over education funding, teacher shortages, and deteriorating school conditions in France has escalated into widespread civil unrest and a broader challenge to the French government. On October 6, an estimated 266,000 people took to the streets, with reports of nearly 7,000 detentions, violent clashes with riot police, fires, barricades, and 141 school closures. Despite government promises to hire 3,000 additional teachers, tensions remain high as frustration grows over economic inequality, spending cuts, and France's mounting €3.6 trillion national debt, now 119% of GDP.

Contagion

Similar demonstrations and political tensions have emerged across Europe, including in Belgium, Italy, and Greece, although these protests have different causes and are not necessarily coordinated. Immigration, Islamism, government spending, and economic uncertainty are fueling wider political divisions, but there is no verified evidence that Islamist organizations are directing France's education protests. The bigger concern is whether Europe's growing fiscal pressures and political instability could spill into financial markets, pushing French bond yields higher, widening spreads against German Bunds, weakening the euro, and putting additional pressure on European stocks.

Euro on 17-Month Low Vs the Dollar Index (DXY)

On January 27, 2026 the Euro was trading at 1.20, it sold off down to 1.14 around March 14, made an 11.8 double top  on May 10, sold off to a new low for the year at 1.14 on June 24, rallied up 1.17  On August 22, and was trading 1.16 on September 11  and now has fallen 3.45% in one month.

Is Europe Turning Against Liberal Governments?

Immigration, Islamist Extremism, and Europe's Political Backlash

One of the biggest issues fueling Europe's political divisions is immigration, particularly illegal migration, border security, and the integration of migrant communities. Governments across Europe face growing public pressure over asylum policies, housing shortages, pressure on public services, and concerns about crime and security. Islamist extremism is another serious concern, with European authorities continuing to investigate terrorist networks and radicalization. These issues have become important political battlegrounds in France, Germany, Austria, and other European countries, helping conservative and nationalist parties attract voters dissatisfied with established leadership.

The bigger question is whether Europe's established political parties can address immigration, security, economic stagnation, and rising government debt while maintaining public confidence. If they cannot, continued political fragmentation and pressure from conservative and nationalist opposition parties could further complicate fiscal reform and economic policy making.

There is no doubt  and there is clear evidence of growing dissatisfaction with Europe's established liberal political parties and  the conservative, nationalist, and populist parties have benefited in several countries. But the backlash is not limited to liberal governments. Bottom line: Europe's voters are increasingly challenging established political leadership, and conservative and nationalist parties are benefiting in several countries. But the unrest reflects multiple, sometimes opposing, demands. The broader political trend is growing fragmentation and dissatisfaction with incumbents—not a guaranteed electoral victory for any single political movement.

As we head into November 3, we already know, like Europe, there is a large amount of dissatisfaction amongst U.S. voters. There is a wind of change going on but it's not just in Washington... it's all over the world. I predicted there would be demonstrations and riots in the spring of 2021 after the Covid-19 lock down and I am not saying there will be lockdowns again in the U.S., but I am not ruling them out either!

Defining Risk – in Markets and Life

By Bosier Parsons

Most people are surprised that I don't always immediately place a stop when I put on a trade. Sometimes I just want to be in a trade to feel what it’s like – to try to feel the anxiety of the buyers vs. sellers. When price moves from one level to the next, it’s the overall positioning and anxiety of the market that creates the next move. I have no idea what that positioning and anxiety might be, without feeling and experiencing it. How I react to an experience is a critical component of life. If careless, I might be facing a life-altering moment that could cost me dearly. So, defining risk for me is better contextualized as defining if the consequences will really hurt me.

As an extreme rock climber of 35 years, I sometimes attempt a route that is difficult to protect and therefore a serious endeavor. Whether difficult or easy, I pay close attention to my feelings the moment I begin. Sometimes, I feel anxious and back off, as maybe the consequences of making a mistake feel too great. More often, I’m rewarded by a spiritual and physical experience that is soothing and invigorating. But without getting up there, I’ll never know what that experience feels like.

In trading, I find this a similar invaluable concept. When I have a signal to go long or short, I need to get in there and experience it for myself. If I’m anxious, scared, and fumbling around with thoughts, feelings, and physical reactions, I have the potential to really hurt myself. So, I back off. I come back another time, or another day.

For me, staying humble and living for that next experience is what defining risk is all about. The climb is only successful if I return home safely. My trade is only successful if I react well to my emotions and ensure that I can trade again tomorrow.

© BPTC 26 LLC

Bosier Parsons’s digital business card

ES Builds on the Overnight Recovery

Friday’s ES session opened at 7820.50 and tested 7817.00 during the first overnight rotation. That became the session low. Buyers worked prices higher through Globex, with the overnight high reaching 7853.75 during the 8:00 a.m. ET interval. The contract eased back before the cash opening, finishing Globex at 7838.25. The overnight recovery left the ES above Thursday’s 7816.25 settlement, but the move into the cash bell had already given back part of the morning advance.

Cash trade opened at 7838.00. The early pullback reached 7826.75 during the 9:45 interval, then buyers regained control. By 11:00, the ES was trading around 7849; the early afternoon pushed into the upper 7850s and low 7860s. The session high of 7870.50 came during the 2:50 p.m. interval. The important feature was the progression from an early cash low to a higher afternoon range, with the overnight low remaining well below the regular-session retracement.

A Positive Finish, With NQ Less Convincing

The ES was 7862.25 at 3:50 p.m. Friday’s MOC Reveal was $1.3 billion to sell and briefly expanded near $1.7 billion before steadily unwinding. The ES softened during the final cash minutes and closed the regular session at 7861.00. The imbalance ultimately flipped to buying at the bell. Cleanup trade then lifted the contract to 7866.00 at 5:00 p.m.

Official ES settlement was 7859.75, up 43.50 points, or 0.56%, from Thursday. The full-session gain from open to last price was 45.50 points, and volume totaled approximately 1.08 million. NQ settled at 31108.75, up 139.25 points, or 0.45%, but its cash session was less firm: it opened at 31167.00 and closed at 31112.25. Its final session price was 31123.25. Both contracts improved on Thursday’s settlements, while ES delivered the stronger cash-session recovery. For ES, the day’s message was an early dip that held, a sustained afternoon advance and a late close that retained most of the gain.

In the end, both the ES and NQ closed higher, In terms of the ES's overall tone, it acted firm. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the low side at 1.08 million contracts traded.

Heavy Selling Unwinds Into the Bell

The Reveal for the MOC on October 9 was $1.3 billion to sell. Selling grew to $1.4 billion at 3:52 and $1.5 billion at 3:53, then peaked near $1.7 billion at 3:54. It eased to $1.0 billion at 3:55, roughly $0.7 billion through 3:58, and $0.5 billion at 3:59 before flipping to $0.3 billion to buy at 4:00. The 3:55-through-the-close window is usually where discretionary traders close out the day; here, the heavy sell imbalance steadily unwound and the final reading turned positive.

At the Reveal, Coinbase led the buy list at $182.8 million, followed by Verizon at $123.7 million and Tesla at $115.2 million. Dell and SanDisk also showed substantial buying. Medtronic dominated the sell list at $485.4 million, with Nvidia at $235.3 million and Amazon at $189.8 million behind it. Alphabet, American Electric Power, and Chevron added to that pressure. These were the leading names in the Reveal snapshot, not the final auction’s full composition.

Health Care carried the largest sector sell imbalance at $715.2 million. Consumer Discretionary was $200.8 million to sell, with Energy and Materials also negative. Real Estate stood out on the buy side at $55.3 million; Communication Services, Financials and Industrials were also positive, although Financials had more selling names than buying names.

The close felt heavily offered at first, but the imbalance lost force rather than expanding into the bell. That late reversal describes the auction flow; it does not, by itself, establish how prices responded.

How the NYSE and Nasdaq auctions work
How to read the MIM

Manny will be live in the Pit this morning. Watch on PitbullTraders YouTube or join the Pit room.

SPX Has a Tech Addiction. Here's When the Withdrawal Hits.

By Manny Payano

What if Wall Street is quietly reducing exposure while investors are celebrating another SPX all-time high? Who the hell are they going to sell to if everybody knows they're selling?

Think about how many times we've watched ES get beaten up for hours, sellers hitting every rally, breakouts failing, support repeatedly tested, only for a late bid to turn an ugly session into a pretty green candle.

The investor checking their account after dinner sees another positive day. We watched the entire damn fight.

The daily chart tells you the result. The intraday chart tells you how we got there.

Now look underneath SPX. A handful of tech giants are carrying much of the index while the average company struggles to keep pace. Compare SPX with RSP, the equal-weight version of the same 500 companies. Same stocks, very different story.

Meanwhile, billions are pouring into AI infrastructure, interest rates remain elevated, and expectations for the biggest tech companies are enormous.

When an index becomes this top-heavy, the margin for error starts shrinking. Eventually, it damn near disappears.

An earnings disappointment, slower AI spending, a delayed data center or financing trouble at a weaker link could change how Wall Street views the entire trade.

Does that mean a crash is coming? No. The higher-time-frame trend remains bullish, and I respect it. I'm not calling a top.

But I've been watching changes in ES price behavior since May, and I think they're worth discussing.

Traders are eyewitnesses to the auction. Investors get the recap.

I break down what we're seeing, what the SPX/RSP divergence is telling us, and what could eventually trigger the withdrawal.

Read the full article: The S&P 500 Has a Tech Addiction. Here's When the Withdrawal Hits.

React, don't predict. 👊👊

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Source: WSJ Markets Diary. Daily feed and Weekly Totals: Friday, October 09, 2026. Percentages exclude unchanged issues and volume. Total combines NYSE and Nasdaq. Weekly TRIN is calculated from weekly totals; weekly highs/lows retain WSJ’s Weekly Totals definition.

Polaris Trading Group

Friday’s Cycle Day 1: 7825 Holds, 7850 Revisited

David framed October 9 as a new Cycle Day 1, with 7825 as the Line in the Sand. Overnight support held and the 7850 objective was fulfilled before the cash session. Friday’s emphasis was capital preservation, selective entries and patience through a quiet morning.

• The morning retest of 7825 held, keeping that reference central to the long-side plan.

• David reported an A10 long playing out, with scaling and a runner rather than an all-or-nothing exit.

• A move above 7843 shifted the intraday bias toward another test of 7850.

• A further squeeze required bulls to clear and convert 7855–7860; that remained a condition, not a confirmed breakout.

• Later updates reported additional scaling and the runner being reduced, with the trading program complete.

The lesson was to work the defined references, take the available rotation and avoid forcing Friday trades when momentum was limited.

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group is watching a quiet U.S. holiday calendar alongside wide sector dispersion, weak consumer sentiment, and continued dependence on AI leadership. Its preview treats crude, Treasury yields, the dollar and geopolitical headlines as the main sources of potential volatility.

Backdrop and Catalysts

• The group sees consumer and housing sensitivity as a risk for discretionary and rate-sensitive sectors, while AI-related flows remain especially relevant to NQ.

• DTG flags competing oil-supply and geopolitical narratives; watch headline-driven changes rather than treating those scenarios as confirmed outcomes.

• The preview notes no corporate earnings of interest and flags IMF meetings and a Cleveland Fed speaking event for monitoring.

ES References

• DTG’s whale bias leans bearish on light overnight large-trader volume.

• The group marks the short-term channel top around 7799–7804 as potential support and the intermediate channel top around 8002–8007 as resistance.

• The cited 50-day moving average is 7778.25, a looser support reference below.

• Additional trend-line support zones are 7700–7705 and 7412–7417.

• The preview reports a five-day ES average range of 71.50 points, down from 79.00 in Thursday’s review.