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Oil Gets Hit, Bonds Catch a Bid, and the Spoos Do What They Do Best: Rip ’Em Back in One Day
Danny Riley
June 16, 2026
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As oil prices fall and bonds rally after the announcement of the US/Iran deal, this is a great example of my trading rule that says, “It takes days and weeks to knock the ES and NQ down and only one to bring them back.”
The Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be fully open by Friday, but senior US officials say it may take over two weeks to resume normal shipping operations. The funny thing is neither the US nor Iran have released the text of their deal, but both countries are saying it’s a big win, and yet both sides are facing criticism, and it isn’t clear if or when the deal will be signed.
J.D. Vance said it has already been signed, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would sign on Friday. One of my friends who pays close attention to the negotiations said he thinks there is an outside chance the deal doesn’t go through or that it will take longer to get it signed.
I think the wild card is Trump telling the media that Israel would leave southern Lebanon, but some U.S. officials said that Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon wasn’t a condition for the agreement, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday said Israel wouldn’t withdraw its forces from Lebanese territory. Either way, I think it remains a very fluid situation.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
The markets have spoken... and as the US and Iran move closer to signing a deal, the markets have responded in kind. After closing at 7497.50 on Friday, the futures gapped sharply higher at 7543.50, traded up to 7602.00 at 7:30 a.m., and opened Monday’s regular session at 7599.25.
After the open, the ES traded 7598.50, rallied 24.00 points up to 7622.50 at 9:50, pulled back to 7605.50 at 10:10, and rallied 23.50 points up to 7629.00 at 11:00 when this headline hit the tape:
SEYED ABBAS ARAGHCHI: THE ISLAMABAD MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING HAS NEVER BEEN CLOSER. PENDING ITS FINALIZATION, THE MEDIA SHOULD REFRAIN FROM ENTERING SPECULATION ABOUT ITS CONTENT. IN LINE WITH OUR RESPONSIBLE AND TRANSPARENT APPROACH, ALL DETAILS WILL BE SHARED WITH THE PUBLIC.
The ES then made 12 higher highs up to 7649.00 at 12:00, 106.00 points off Friday’s close. After the high, the ES traded 7641.00, then traded up to a lower high of 7648.25 at 12:30. It pulled back to 7632.50, rallied up to another lower high at 7646.50 at 1:25, and sold off 20.75 points down to 7625.75 at 2:30. From there, it rallied up to 7636.25 at 2:45, drifted down to 7622.75 at 3:14, rallied up to 7631.25 at 3:49, and traded 7629.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $5.8 billion to sell. It traded 7616.50 at 3:58, quickly popped back up, and traded 7630.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES sold off down to 7624.25 and settled at 7626.50, up 83.50 points or +1.11%. The NQ settled at 30,864.27, up 909.50 points or +3.04%. The YM settled at 52,129, up 524 points or +1.02%, and the RTY settled at 2,988.60, up 22.20 points or +0.75% on the day.
In the end, on Friday, the MIM bought $4.6 billion and yesterday it was $5.8 billion to sell; it was a nice scalp for the buys with the better seats. In terms of the NQ’s overall tone, it closed up 3.04% and the ES was up 1.11%; hard to fight that. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, it was steady but not large; there were 1.2 million ESM and 2 million ESU traded.
1-Month CL, NQ, YM & RTY Chart
The index futures have posted their best three sessions since May 2025.
ESU: Up 3 sessions in a row for a total gain of 287.75 points, or +3.92%.
NQU: Up 3 sessions in a row for a total gain of 2,128.25 points, or +7.41%.
YMU: Up 3 sessions in a row for a total gain of 1,778 points, or +3.51%, for its 16th record high of the year.
RTY: Up 3 sessions in a row for a total gain of 130.30 points, or +4.51%.
CLN: Down 4 of the last 5 sessions for a total loss of 11.50 points, or -12.47%, the lowest closing price since the beginning of the war.
Market-on-Close Recap
The MOC opened with a heavy sell-side tone and never fully shook it off. At 15:50, the imbalance was a strong $5.149B for sale against $1.927B to buy, creating a -78.6% dollar lean and -53.0% symbol lean. That was the first clear sign that the close was not just rotational, but institutionally offered. The sell imbalance peaked early, with sell-side dollars above $7B at 15:51 before gradually bleeding lower through the final ten minutes.
The transition was notable. From 15:52 through 15:58, buy interest improved from roughly $2.08B to more than $3B, and at 15:54, the total briefly flipped positive by $383M as buy demand reached $4.214B versus $3.831B to sell. However, that recovery was not sustained. By 15:59, the book slipped back to a mild sell imbalance, and the 16:01 read finished at -$857M with a -66.9% dollar lean and -65.2% symbol lean. That final dollar lean sits right at the wholesale sell threshold, showing that the closing pressure remained meaningful despite the mid-window rebound.
Sector selling was broad. Information Technology was the standout pressure point at -$2.762B with a -92.4% lean, led by major sell imbalances in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AVGO, MU, and MRCX. Communication Services was also deeply offered at -81.6%, with GOOG, GOOGL, and META on the sell side. Consumer Discretionary showed a -77.8% lean, driven by AMZN and TSLA. Financials leaned -73.0%, while Health Care, Utilities, and Real Estate all carried wholesale sell readings.
Buy-side offsets were narrower and more rotational. Industrials were nearly balanced at -50.3%, with buys in PH, OTIS, ITT, and AME. TMUS, TJX, V, APO, and ARM appeared among the better buy-side names. Overall, the close was a sell-biased MOC with concentrated mega-cap tech and growth pressure.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, June 15, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 72% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 66% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 156 / 35
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 391 / 109
• NYSE TRIN: 1.10
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.60
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, June 12, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 266 / 197
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 556 / 511
• NYSE TRIN: 1.79
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.27
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, June 15, 2026
Monday’s PTG session began with contract-rollover housekeeping, then developed from early two-way trade into a strong upside auction. David’s key levels helped frame the day, especially as the market pushed toward new all-time highs.
Contract Rollover
The room had rolled to the September “U” contract.
David clarified that Sierra Chart rollover should be done manually using Charts → Perform Futures Symbol Rollover.
That method rolls all charts in the chartbook.
David prefers doing rollover over the weekend to allow time for chartbook adjustments.
Lesson: prepare rollover ahead of the trading week and verify all charts before trading live.
Early Market Structure
David identified 7585 as the early key reference level.
The market initially showed increased two-way traffic.
A POC shift was noted, suggesting changing participation and value development.
David defined the active trading sandbox as 7605–7620, plus or minus 5 points.
Lesson: use the sandbox to avoid chasing and to frame risk around acceptance or rejection.
Rollover Week Caution
Members discussed whether rollover week can cause ES to trade sideways or sluggishly.
One member noted that trading more conservatively during rollover has historically worked best.
This fit the early-session conditions, where the market was not immediately clean or directional.
Lesson: during rollover, reduce assumptions, trade smaller or more selectively, and wait for cleaner structure.
Upside Break and Trend Development
By late morning, David observed that markets were gunning for a new all-time high.
The session shifted from early balance into stronger directional trade.
David later described the day as a “one-way street” and “single lane highway.”
Positive trade theme: once the market accepted higher prices, the better opportunity was staying aligned with the long side rather than fading strength.
Key Intraday Levels
Monthly VAH: 7648.50
David noted this appeared to be a potential high area at the time.
7630 handle
Later identified as pivot support.
RTH VWAP: 7625
David noted this might be an interesting hold area.
7623 midpoint
Another important intraday reference.
7626 area
Members observed notable activity there, jokingly calling it “voodoo.”
Closing Note
David reported a $5.8 billion MOC sell imbalance into the close.
Despite the closing imbalance, the main story of the day remained the upside auction and the market’s ability to hold higher structure.
Positive Trades and Lessons Learned
Best opportunity: recognizing the shift from two-way trade into directional upside continuation.
Strong lesson: do not fight a one-way market once acceptance is clear.
Important process takeaway: rollover periods require extra preparation and more conservative trade selection.
Key execution lesson: David’s levels gave traders structure for entries, holds, and risk management.
Overall takeaway: patience early, then alignment with the trend, was the best approach for the session.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Macro Backdrop
Markets are cautiously bid ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
Traders expect a firmer anti-inflation tone after recent CPI and PPI strength.
The meeting is likely to be a major volatility catalyst.
Global Policy
The BOJ raised rates to the highest level in 31 years.
US futures have largely shrugged it off so far.
Yen strength and possible capital repatriation remain slow-burn macro headwinds.
Geopolitics & Oil
Reports suggest a Hormuz deal may be forming.
Trade flows could still take months to normalize.
Oil remains soft, suggesting supply disruption is still viewed as a tail risk.
Growth Themes
US EV demand is improving again, helped by price cuts, charging infrastructure, and new models.
Alibaba’s new AI robotics models reinforce the AI-capex and automation theme.
Elon Musk’s US bankruptcy warning adds sentiment noise, but not a clear tradable macro shift.
Today’s Calendar
No notable earnings today.
8:15 ET: ADP Weekly Employment Change.
8:30 ET: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import Prices.
Volatility & Flow
Volatility remains elevated but has cooled from Friday.
The 5-day average daily range fell to 120.25 points.
Overnight large-trader volume was too light to establish a whale bias.
ES Technicals
ES is trading in a less-defined technical zone, giving both bulls and bears room to work.
The 50-day MA at 7373.25 remains loose support below.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7871/81
Support: 7540/45, 7475/80, 7415/20, 7568/58
