November Rate Hike In The Cards

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As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged. However, Powell's comments rained on the Bulls’ party. While rates remain unchanged, Powell & Co. left the possibility of one more rate hike by year’s end and reiterated a “higher for longer” stance.

For instance, the committee sees rates staying near ~5.1% by year-end 2024, which is in contrast to what the market was pricing in. While there has been a shift toward the “higher for longer” expectations by markets over the last month, the most likely probability was pricing in an expectation of rates in the 4.5% to 4.75% range.

I should have known that whatever Powell was going to say would not be good. Historically on Fed days, volatility picks up during and after the press release and we saw it again yesterday.

Plain and simple I made money early in the day and got chopped up late in the day. I had the “sell early rallies” part, but I didn't think the ES would fall as hard as it did.