No Volume Amid Two-Way Trading

A mild dip would be good.

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Our View

Barring the US getting into a war, I think we could see a lot of quiet trading days going into the end of the year. 

Yes, the markets have rallied, but that's not changing the overall stress people are feeling. A friend sent me a story about the sovereign wealth funds and how Norway's sovereign fund invested $1.4 trillion of the fund's holdings in tech companies, which jumped 39%. The fund bought Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA), which contributed the most, helping to drive the fund's 10% overall return. 

Norway's sovereign wealth fund made a profit of 1,501 billion crowns ($143 billion) for the first half of the year, partly due to the growth of US tech companies and their development of artificial intelligence, which brings me to another point…

Why should the US give $60 billion in aid to Ukraine when we owe $33 trillion? This is in Europe's backyard and they should foot the bill. All you have to do is look at the 10 biggest sovereign wealth funds: Norway, Sweden, Finland, Saudi Arabia, China, UAE and Singapore. Let them come up with some fucking money.

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade

This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.

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MiM and Daily Recap

ES recap

The ES sold off down to 4552.00 and opened Monday's regular session at 4561.50. After the open, the ES traded up to 4567.25, sold off down to 4555.50 at 9:54, rallied back up to the 4567.25 high and sold off to a higher low at 4557.00. It was that low that led to a slow stutter-step up to a new high at 4570.00 at 1:20.

After the high, the ES sold off 14 handles down to 4556.00 at 2:43 and rallied back up to 4568.00 at 3:41 as the early imbalance showed $345 million to sell. The ES traded 4563 as the NYSE 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.5 billion to sell and traded 4560.25 on the 4:00 cash close and settled at 4561.50 on the 5:00 futures close, down 7.25 points or 0.16%. 

In the end and as expected, there was no volume. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was a narrow, two-way street. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was small: 182k traded on Globex and 866k traded on the day session for a total of 1.048 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 36% Upside Volume 

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 49% Upside Volume 

  • Advance/Decline: 41% Advance 

  • VIX: ~13

S&P 500 — ES Futures

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Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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