- The Opening Print
- Posts
- No Fear in the VIX, No Sleep for the Bulls
No Fear in the VIX, No Sleep for the Bulls
Danny Riley
April 27, 2026
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
The ES jumped to its 9th record high and logged a weekly gain of 0.50%, while the NQ jumped to its 5th record high, up 1.5% on the week. The YM fell 0.40% for the week.
The AI bubble story that started 6 months ago has exploded higher and has been extremely resilient despite the anxiety of geopolitical risks. All this is great, but the war with Iran has left the American public in its grimmest mood on record. The University of Michigan Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest level in its 50-year history.
After last Friday's big week and record gains, this week is packed with economic reports, earnings, and the ongoing war with Iran. This week is the busiest earnings week of the quarter and the second-to-last Fed meeting for Jerome Powell.
Five out of the "Magnificent 7" companies report earnings: Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) report starting early in the week, and Apple (AAPL) reports on Thursday. When you throw in the US/Iran headlines and Thursday's busy economic schedule, it is guaranteed to be one of the most volatile weeks of the year. Tesla has already reported earnings, so the only Mag 7 left to report after this week will be Nvidia.
After trading up to 35.30 on 03/06/26, the VIX traded down to 18.48 on Friday. Of the last 35 sessions, the VIX was up 11, down 23, and 1 unchanged. It has fallen 16.59 points, or 46.99%; there is no fear.
Trump says he canceled the meeting, but Witkoff and Kushner's anticipated trip to Islamabad for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been sidelined. According to U.S. and Iranian officials, significant deadlock remains regarding the U.S. blockade, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Like I said, it's going to be a week.
Our lean: I know there has to be a pullback/sell-off, and I know it's crazy to say this, but I still think there is more room on the upside. If the ES gaps way up, you can sell the early rip and buy the pullbacks, or just be patient and buy them when they fall, especially if it's a headline drop.
AI Levels
Today I did my AI market profile levels MM26 profile-composite volume.
Volume Profile
POC: 24,331.50
VAH: 25,831.50
VAL: 23,031.50
Classic Pivot Points — Most Recent Session
R3: 28,071.50
R2: 27,767.00
R1: 27,601.00
PP: 27,296.50
S1: 27,130.50
S2: 26,826.00
S3: 26,660.00
Camarilla Pivots — Most Recent Session
CR4: 27,643.38
CR3: 27,537.44
CR2: 27,484.46
CR1: 27,461.97
CS1: 27,408.03
CS2: 27,385.54
CS3: 27,332.56
CS4: 27,226.63
Woodie Pivots — Most Recent Session
WR2: 27,767.00
WR1: 27,610.50
WPP: 27,314.25
WS1: 27,157.75
WS2: 26,861.50
DeMark Pivots — Most Recent Session
DR1: 27,687.25
DPP: 27,376.13
DS1: 27,244.75
Fibonacci Retracement — Swing 22,961.50 → 27,462.50
0%: 27,462.50
23.6%: 26,400.26
38.2%: 25,743.12
50%: 25,212.00
61.8%: 24,680.88
78.6%: 23,924.71
100%: 22,961.50
The ES made a low on Globex at 7135.50, traded up to 7189.50, and opened Friday's regular session at 7162.50, up 20.75 points or +0.29%.
After the open, the ES traded 7160.75, rallied up to 7173.75, then sold off down to 7145.00 at 10:00. It rallied up to 7162.50, sold off to a higher low at 7149.50 at 10:30, and then rallied 27.50 points up to a new high at 7177.00 at 11:20. The ES pulled back to 7170.50 and then rallied straight up to 7191.50 at 11:30. It pulled back to 7182.00, rallied to a new high at 7197.25 at 11:45, made four lower highs, and traded down to 7185.25 at 12:10.
The ES then rallied up to 7194.50 at 12:30, sold off to 7184.25, rallied to 7194.00 at 12:55, and traded back down to 7182.75 at 1:30. It pushed higher to 7200.75 at 1:50, sold off to 7184.75 at 2:15, and traded back up to 7200.00 at 3:20. The ES then sold off to 7189.25 and traded 7194.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.5 billion to buy. It rallied up to 7199.00 at 3:58, pulled back to 7193.24, and traded 7194.75 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES flatlined and settled at 7195.50, up 52 points or +0.73%. The NQ settled at 27,440.25, up 506.25 points or +1.88%, the YM settled at 49,424, down 66 points or -0.13%, and the RTY settled at 2,796.80, up 0.38% on the day.
In the end, the endless buying pushed the SOX PHLX Semiconductor Index to its 18th straight gain—its longest winning streak on record—climbing 47%. Intel (INTC) jumped 24% to a record high after blockbuster earnings, helping push the stock higher, surpassing its level from the year 2000 and boosting sentiment across the broader chip sector. NVIDIA (NVDA) also closed at a record, retaking the $5 trillion market cap crown.
In terms of the ES's overall tone, the semiconductors led a rotation out of the Dow and into the S&P and Nasdaq. Overall trade volume was low at 1.38 million contracts traded; volume is slightly below the 20-day average for a full session, which currently stands at 1.839 million shares.
Performance Snapshot
Current Level: 10,507.39
Session Change: +428.82 (+4.25%)
Total Gain: +2,931.02 (+0.63%)
Advance/Decline: 18 / 0
Economic Calendar
Monday: There are no economic reports.
Tuesday: 9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index; 10:00 Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: Durable Goods, Housing Starts and Permits, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance; 2:00 FOMC Meeting; 2:30 Fed Chair Powell press conference.
Thursday: 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index, GDP, Personal Income, PCE; 9:45 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI); 1:00 Leading Indicators.
Friday: PMI, ISM.
The MOC session opened with a modest imbalance but quickly established a firm buy-side tone that persisted throughout the majority of the auction. At 15:50, the market showed a $1.6B. From there, the session built steadily, ultimately peaking around 15:54 with total imbalances exceeding $5.6B, driven by nearly $9.3B in buy orders versus $3.6B for sale. This early expansion and sustained elevation in buy pressure signaled institutional participation rather than short-term retail flows.
The lean metrics reinforced this view. The overall market leaned +64.3% on dollars and +52.9% on symbols, indicating a strong but somewhat rotational buy bias. However, the NASDAQ stood out with an +81.2% dollar lean and +75.0% symbol lean, clearly reflecting a more wholesale accumulation of tech-heavy names. In contrast, the NYSE was more balanced, even showing a -50.4% symbol lean despite a +51.4% dollar bias, suggesting rotation rather than outright conviction.
Sector flows further clarified positioning. Communication Services (+92.0%), Consumer Staples (+93.1%), and Basic Materials (+100%) all showed strong buy-side control, with Basic Materials representing a pure one-sided flow. Energy (+74.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (+72.6%) also leaned firmly bid. Notably, Financials (-71.8%) and Real Estate (-55.6%) showed meaningful sell pressure, with Financials representing a clear wholesale distribution given the extreme negative lean.
At the symbol level, leadership was concentrated in mega-cap and semiconductor names. Strong buying appeared in AMD, MU, NVDA, AAPL, and GOOGL, alongside notable flows in TSLA and COST. On the sell side, pressure was more dispersed but included key Financial names like BRK.B and V, aligning with the sector-level weakness.
Into the close, imbalances tapered but remained firmly positive, finishing near $727M with a ~67.9% buy skew. Overall, the session reflected a decisive institutional bid, led by tech and growth sectors, with clear rotation out of Financials and selective defensive accumulation.
Monday
9:00am - 11:30am, Manny & Tom
12:00pm - 1:30pm, Bo
2:00pm - 2:30pm, Tom
Technical Edge
Fair Values for April 27, 2026
SP: 30.96
NQ: 138.5
Dow: 150.07
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, April 24, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 112 / 17
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 315 / 115
• NYSE TRIN: 1.30
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.64
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending April 24, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 307 / 56
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 677 / 266
• NYSE TRIN: 0.86
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Friday, April 24, 2026
The session had a light, upbeat atmosphere, but underneath that was a focused learning environment. The market itself started somewhat choppy and range-bound, requiring patience and discipline before delivering a strong directional move later.
Market Context
Early headline: S&P futures pushing higher toward records, with macro news (Iran/Pakistan developments) influencing volatility.
Initial conditions:
Tight range / chop
Traders noted need for a clean break of key pivots
Some uncertainty around structure (short, lean, but not clean)
This set the tone: not a jump-in environment early.
Key Trading Developments
A10 level identified: ~7163
Clear discussion around level-based trading and scaling
Emphasis on using a “box” (±2 pts) to manage entries
Repeated opportunity:
A setup triggered multiple times within minutes
Reinforced the idea that good setups often repeat
Mid-morning:
Market described as a “chopfest”
Members showed awareness of conditions and avoided overtrading
Major turning point:
News catalyst → futures ripped higher
PTG levels played out precisely
Big Win of the Day
7195 target HIT
This aligned perfectly with the pre-defined plan:
Acceptance above 7150
Targets: 7165 → 7180 → 7195
This is a textbook example of:
Trusting levels
Letting the trade come to you
Executing the plan rather than predicting
Key Lessons & Takeaways
1. Patience Pays
Early chop reinforced the need to wait for structure and confirmation
One trader even said they would “sit on my fingers” — excellent discipline
2. Trust the Process
Members explicitly acknowledged:
“trusting the process”
“great learning session”
The plan worked exactly as laid out → reinforces confidence in the system
3. First Pullback & Structure Clarity
Strong discussion around:
What qualifies as a true first pullback
Importance of displacement and levels (like A4, A10, DIS)
4. Repetition Builds Skill
Same setup appearing multiple times helped reinforce pattern recognition
5. Scaling & Risk Management
Use of zones (not exact ticks) and scaling into positions was highlighted
6. Adapt to Market Conditions
Recognizing chop vs trend:
Avoid forcing trades in chop
Be ready to act when momentum shifts
Bottom Line
This was a model PTG day:
Patience early
Education throughout
Execution later
Plan → Trigger → Target achieved
DTG Room Preview – Monday, April 27, 2026
Macro / Geopolitics:
Focus remains on US–Iran tensions; peace talks stalled
Strait of Hormuz still blocked (~20% of global oil supply) → oil +2%, inflation concerns rising
Goldman Sachs flags severe global inventory draws; supply deficit expected this quarter
Fed / Rates:
Powell’s final Fed meeting this week before likely transition to Kevin Warsh
Warsh expected to be confirmed midweek
FedWatch: ~99.5% probability of no rate change (“wait and see” stance)
Earnings Focus:
Major tech (MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, META, GOOGL) reporting this week
Key theme: AI spending + long-term revenue outlook (2026+)
Mag 7 rebounding in April, outperforming S&P (MAGS +13% vs SPX +9%)
Today / Near-Term Earnings:
Premarket: Verizon (VZ)
After close: NUE, PSA, UHS, VTR
Heavy slate Tuesday including GM, KO, UPS, SPOT, and others
Volatility / Positioning:
Vol remains elevated, driven by geopolitical headlines
ES 5-day range contracting (83 vs 92 prior)
Slight bullish bias into US open on light volume
ES Technicals:
Market compressing within trendlines → breakout likely soon
Resistance: 7204–7207, then 7630–7635
Support: 7150–7155, then 6866–6871
50-day MA above 200-day MA → broader bullish bias intact
