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- No Crash, No Bubble—Just a Wild Semiconductor Tape and 7600 in the Crosshairs
No Crash, No Bubble—Just a Wild Semiconductor Tape and 7600 in the Crosshairs
Danny Riley
July 13, 2026
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$MU Jan 1 to July 10
Again, I never thought there was a crash coming or an AI bubble, and while I am not discounting the declines, investors have jumped into memory chip makers like SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron as the bets on the AI boom continue.
High demand from data centers continue to drive up prices and sales. For example, even though Micron shares have dropped 20% from their June high into a deep slump, they are still up more than three times over for the year, or up 210.24% as of Friday's close.
This heavy trading has made the broader chip sector the main source of stock market ups and downs in recent weeks. Showing just how rocky things have been, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index ($SOX) has seen 11 daily swings of 5% or more, up or down, since June 1st, already beating the 10 big swings it saw during the whole previous year.
We already know that July is historically one of the strongest and most reliable months of the year for the stock market. Over the past 20 years, it has had an average gain of 2.5%; over 35 years, it shrinks to 1.4%.
Over the past two decades, July has frequently emerged as the top-performing month for the S&P 500. In post-election years, this effect is even more pronounced. On average, July has delivered a +2.2% gain in the first year of the presidential cycle, making it the best month of the year in those terms. Since 1950, the index has closed in the green nearly 70% of the time in July, including 8 of the last 9 years.
In most cases, the first two weeks are the most reliable, with “first of the month inflows,” When I made several graphs, the thing that stuck out to me was that it seems like above 7640, there are a lot of resistance levels. I am not saying they can't rally above there, but if we have learned anything, it's that buying into rallies/strength is not advised. There are always drops to but during the second half, there can be headwinds, which coincide with the kickoff of the 2Q earnings season. Additionally, volumes continue to thin as institutional volume begins to dry up ahead of the August summer holiday block, causing liquidity to thin out.
This lighter environment makes the indices highly susceptible to choppy, rotational behavior or sudden intraday profit-taking.
I still think higher, but the war between the US and Iran is intensifying. The US has launched dozens of attacks, and Iran has been targeting US allies. The US struck 140 sites in Iran at a much larger scale than previous attacks over the last week, and Iran has been hitting back at Qatar and Oman.
This remains a tinderbox for the global oil and stock markets, yet Iran's negotiators have sought to push forward with talks while the IRGC undermines the talks by continuing the attacks. My opinion is there is no way Iran will agree to a nuclear deal, and hammering out a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be that easy.
I know oil fell Friday, but I think it could be higher on Globex Sunday night and on Monday. When you look at the September bonds (ZBU26), they have been down 7 out of the last 8 sessions, and the 10-Yr Note futures (ZNU26) have been down 6, up 2, and 1 unchanged out of the last 9 sessions, and don't look great either.
Our lean: There have been 15 separate highs above ESU 7600, with the all-time high at 7693.75 on 06/02/2026.
When I made several graphs, the thing that stuck out to me was that it seems like above 7640, there are a lot of resistance levels. I am not saying they can't rally above there, but if we have learned anything, it's that buying into rallies/strength is not advised. There are always drops to buy cheaper inventory.
When you throw in the bonds, crude oil, the war, and the earnings, I don't think it's a good idea to act like everything is great. What I can say is, I still think higher, but based on the price action, it's better to be patient and buy the pullbacks.
The ES traded higher on Globex, with a 7568.50 low to a 7596.00 high, and opened Friday's 9:30 ET regular session at 7592.25, up 1.50 points, or +0.05%.
After the open, the ES traded down to 7586.75 and rallied 17.75 points up to 7604.50 at 10:15. It pulled back a few points down to 7598.50 at 10:20, then rallied 13.50 points up to 7612.00 at 10:55.
The ES pulled back to 7607.00 at 11:05, rallied 9.50 points up to 7616.50 at 11:55, and had a small pullback to 7611.75 at 12:05. It then trended steadily higher through the afternoon session on thin summer volume.
The ES continued its upward push, making 5 higher highs up to the 7627 level at 2:40, pulled back 10 points down to the 7617 level at 3:00, caught a slight bid pushing the ES back up to 7623.50 at 3:40. It traded 7624.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance initially came out $45 million to sell and flipped to $2.3 billion to buy, and traded 7620.75 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES slowly traded up to a new high at 7628.75 at 3:50 and settled at 7620.25, up 31.50 points, or +0.53%; the $NQ settled at 29,825.11, up 98.01 points, or +0.33%; the $YM settled at 52,637.01, up 149.60 points, or +0.29%; and the RTY settled at 2984.50, down 7.10 points, or -0.24% on the day.
In the end, I think “thin to win” took over as summer trading seems to be in full gear. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was a gap up and a few small early pullbacks followed by several upside stop runs above 7600.00.
In terms of the ES's overall trade, only 1.03 million contracts traded, the lowest level for a full session since March 17th.
Despite the ES and NQ rally, the 10-year note climbed to 4.568%, and the two-year note hit its second-highest settlement of the year at 4.208%. This hawkish backdrop pinned down gold, which edged lower on the week to finish at $4,104.10 an ounce; the DXY (dollar index) caught a modest bid, and crude oil futures fell nearly 1% on the session to settle at $71.41 a barrel, locking in a 4% gain for the week.
The MOC opened with a strong $2.8 billion buy imbalance, supported by $4.8 billion to buy versus $2.0 billion to sell. The dollar lean was +70.4%, a notable wholesale-style buy signal, while the symbol lean was a more rotational +58.3%, with 400 stocks to buy and 286 to sell. The S&P 500 also showed aggressive demand with a +72.1% dollar lean, while Nasdaq was the clearest institutional buy program at +87.6% dollar and +73.2% symbol leans.
The imbalance weakened steadily after the opening print. It fell to $2.4 billion at 15:52, $2.2 billion at 15:53, and $1.2 billion by 15:54. After briefly stabilizing near $874.0 million at 15:57, the MOC faded to $453.0 million at 15:59 and finished at only $115.0 million to buy at 16:00. The final 55.4% dollar and 51.3% symbol leans were rotational, showing that much of the original buy program was paired off before the close.
Technology led sector demand with a $1.3 billion net buy and an +84.8% lean. Consumer Staples followed with $477.7 million and an +86.3% lean, while Energy posted an +87.0% lean. Communication Services, Materials, and Real Estate also recorded notable wholesale-style buying above 66.0%.
The largest buy imbalances included CSCO, PG, AAPL, SNDK, META, AMD, MRVL, LIN, MSFT, and CVX. Selling was concentrated in SYK, CAH, GD, BA, MDT, GOOG, BMY, ORCL, CDNS, C, and OTIS.
Health Care was the only major sector with a meaningful net sell imbalance, losing $91.9 million with a -55.7% dollar lean. Overall, the MOC began as a powerful Nasdaq- and technology-led buy program but transitioned into a much more balanced and rotational close.
Technical Edge
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, July 10, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 72 / 32
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 101 / 98
NYSE TRIN: 0.98
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.21
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, July 10, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 254 / 114
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 477 / 390
NYSE TRIN: 0.86
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.79
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Today’s Important Economic Events
DTG Room Preview – Monday, July 13, 2026
Macro and Earnings
Earnings season begins alongside a dense inflation-data calendar, creating a two-sided catalyst for index futures.
Traders will weigh corporate profit strength against CPI, PPI, rising yields, and shifting rate-cut expectations.
Higher-than-expected inflation could pressure U.S. indexes, particularly technology shares.
Banks and Corporate Results
Major banks report Tuesday morning, including BAC, C, JPM, GS, and WFC.
Strong results could support financials and cyclicals.
Markets will focus on credit quality, deposit flows, consumer strength, and second-half guidance.
TSMC reported record Q2 revenue, up 36% year over year, reinforcing strength in AI and semiconductors.
Geopolitics and Energy
Conflicting reports surrounding the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil higher.
Rising oil prices and bond yields create a more risk-off backdrop, with NQ potentially more vulnerable than ES.
Headlines involving Iran, Ukraine, Israel, and the West Bank remain important volatility risks.
Today’s Calendar
No major corporate earnings are scheduled today.
U.S. Federal Budget Balance: 2:00 p.m. ET
Overnight large-trader activity was too light to establish a whale bias.
Volatility
Volatility remains moderately elevated.
The ES five-day average daily range declined to 80 points from 87.50 points.
Summer trading conditions could reduce activity, although geopolitical headlines may quickly trigger volatility.
ES Technical Outlook
Trend
Friday’s break above the intermediate-term downtrend channel was bullish.
A new short-term rising channel is likely to guide today’s price action.
A breakout above the channel top could lead to a retest of the all-time high and the 7700 area.
Resistance
7655–7660
8090–8095
Support
7508–7513
50-day moving average: 7514.50
7185–7190
