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The first low of the sell-off was the exact level I put out at the 7120 level, and the last low was 7085.00. If I said I knew where this is going or that there is an assured solution, I would be lying, and so would everyone else. Take this headline that came out last night:

"IRAN'S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER GHALIBAF'S ADVISOR: TRUMP'S DECISION TO EXTEND THE CEASEFIRE MAKES NO SENSE. THE CEASEFIRE EXTENSION IS AN ATTEMPT TO BUY TIME FOR A SURPRISE ATTACK. IRAN CURRENTLY HOLDS THE INITIATIVE."

In all honesty, I have never posted or written about more headlines in the entire 30 years that I have been writing the Opening Print, and the sad thing is, I don't think it's going to change anytime soon. The new normal has become... there is no more normal.

Market Recap

The ES popped up to 7183.00 on Globex and traded at 7162.50 on the 9:30 ET regular session open, up 14.25 points or +0.20% on the day.

After the open, the ES traded at 7164.00, sold off 17 points down to 7147.00, rallied 25.5 points back up to the opening price at 7162.50 at 10:15, and then sold off 41.75 points down to 7120.75 after a headline hit that the US boarded a tanker in the Gulf.

It then rallied 20.75 points up to 7141.50 at 11:15, sold off 22.25 points down to a new low at 7119.25 at 11:35, rallied up to 7138.25 at 11:45, and sold off 41.7 points down to 7096.55 at 12:00.

Curiously, it trended lower to 7033.25 at 1:40, then rallied up to a lower high of 7105.50 at 2:15 as crude oil started to rise, rallied up to 7138.50 at 3:30, and sold off down to the day’s low at 7085.00 at 3:45 after a headline hit saying the US halted negotiations.

It traded at 7099.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.6 billion to buy, rallied up to 7107.00, sold off down to 7092.50, rallied up to 7103.50 at 3:49, and traded 7100.50 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7091.75 at 4:05 and then rallied 48.25 points up to 7140.00 after Trump "TACO’ed", extending the ceasefire until Iran submits its proposal. It sold off down to 7118.25 at 4:45 and settled at 7122.25, down 25.75 points or -0.36%.

The NQ settled at 26,721.25, down 27.50 points or -0.10%. The YM settled at 49,487.00, down 152 points or -0.31%, and the RTY settled at 2,788.80, down 15.60 points or -0.56% on the day.

In the end, the on-again, off-again US/Iran negotiations and associated headlines, coupled with rising oil, wore the ES and NQ down. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, they sold off but held the zone I posted from 7120 down to 7083. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.75 million contracts traded.

I'm not going to do any rebuttal; it is what it is. Trump is off his rocker; I still think Iran has the upper hand in the negotiations and has been calling Trump's bluff. There are no scheduled economic reports, but there are some big earnings out.

Enhanced Technical Map: Market Profile & Value Areas

This map integrates your S&P 500 E-Mini Jun '26 (ESM26) technical levels with advanced Market Profile structures.

Guest Posts

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for April 22, 2026:

• SP: 34.32

• NQ: 149.13

• Dow: 173.91

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Tuesday, April 21, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 29% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 37% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 35% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 29% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 158 / 13
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 318 / 79
• NYSE TRIN: 0.88
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.66

Weekly Breadth Data  📈

For the week ending Friday, April 17, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 72% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 69% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 76% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 80% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 79% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 284 / 59
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 710 / 264
• NYSE TRIN: 1.70
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.53

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Tuesday was a textbook Cycle Day 1 (CD1) decline that played out exceptionally clean, with strong adherence to PTG levels and projections. The day offered multiple high-probability opportunities, especially on the short side.

Morning – Plan Comes to Life

• The session started with confirmation of the upper target zone (7175–7185) being fulfilled from the prior DTS plan — a great example of prep work paying off early.

• David immediately set the tone with a “sell lean” bias, emphasizing:

  • Watch for failure below prior close

  • Or reclaim and test higher (decision levels clearly defined)

• Key observation from the room:

  • NQ made new highs while ES did not → early divergence = weakness signal.

Mid-Morning – D Level Precision & Reversal

• Price interacted cleanly with D Levels, especially around ~7171:

  • Multiple touches confirmed structure

  • Led to a sharp reversal (“cliff drop”)

• Traders identified:

  • Gap closure area (~86)

  • Potential PKB setup

  • Strong squeeze dynamics in equities

• Sentiment in the room reflected confidence:

  • “Snapped up”

  • “Life is simple with D Levels”

Lesson: Trust the levels. Reactions at D Levels continue to be highly reliable when combined with structure and confirmation.

Late Morning – Targets Hit Methodically

• David officially called:

  • Cycle Day 1 Decline

  • Bear case acceptance below ~7150

• Downside targets:

  • 7140 → 7130 → 7120
    - All fulfilled cleanly

• Follow-through:

  • CD1 Average Decline Target (7120) hit

  • Continued extension to 7107.50 (projected target fulfilled)

Major takeaway:
This was a model CD1 trend day, where:

• Bias was clear early

• Structure held

• Targets were respected sequentially

Afternoon – Headlines & Volatility Expansion

• Market tone shifted further with geopolitical headlines (Iran, Vance news):

  • Triggered increased volatility and risk-off behavior

  • Reinforced downside pressure

• David emphasized:

  • “Another Range Runner Reversal Day”

  • Volatility remains robust

End of Day – Flush & Completion

• Classic “shake n bake” into the close:

  • Position squaring

  • Acceleration toward lows

• Key levels:

  • Prior Low 7085 tested and tagged perfectly

• Closing notes:

  • MOC Buy Imbalance ($1.7B) but did not negate bearish structure

  • Day finished near lows

Bottom Line

This was a high-quality trend day with excellent technical respect. Traders who trusted:

• The early sell bias

• The D Level rejection

• And the CD1 roadmap

…had multiple opportunities to capture a clean, directional move lower.

A great example of PTG methodology working exactly as designed.

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, April 22, 2026

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!