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- New Money Was Supposed to Show Up — Instead the Sellers Hit the MOC Like a Freight Train
New Money Was Supposed to Show Up — Instead the Sellers Hit the MOC Like a Freight Train
Danny Riley
June 02, 2026
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I tried buying the ES a few times and got stopped out near the lows, and after it finally started going up, I didn't want to chase.
Despite the stats saying June is a weak month, the ES and NQ are still in an uptrend, and the first three trading days generally see new money being put to work. But it just didn't happen as the peace talks hit a wall, crude oil spiked, the yield on the 10-year note pushed to 4.47%, and the 2-year rose to 4.05%.
With the markets sitting at or near all-time highs following an historic streak of weekly gains, some profit-taking took over ahead of a massive macro week. Traders are looking ahead to today's JOLTS report, Wednesday's ADP data, and Friday’s crucial Nonfarm Payrolls. Combined with key tech earnings, like Palo Alto Networks and Broadcom, later this week, the late-day sell-off reflected a classic move to trim risk and take profits at the top of the range.
The ES rallied on Globex, sold off, opened lower, sold off a little more, and then rallied up to a new all-time high at 7629.00 and again failed late in the day. I hate to cry wolf, but the late-day selling and weak close were not good.
The Trump stop-and-start Iran deal is starting to wear thin on the markets, and the over $6 billion sold on last Friday's close and Monday's close isn't a good sign. Based on the close, I would think we could see lower prices on Globex; the question is, will the markets follow through on the downside?
Our lean: As I have always said, the hardest trade to make is picking a top, and up to this point, it hasn't worked. That said, I am looking to sell the rips. I still see 7535-7520 as support.
Market Profile Outlook
Value continues migrating higher, with the Developing POC, Developing Value Area, and Composite VAH all trending upward. As long as price remains above 7576.25 (Developing VAL) and 7600.00 (Composite VAH), the auction remains bullish, favoring continued price discovery toward 7663, 7682, 7700, and potentially 7750.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
Nine Straight Weeks Higher: What History Says About the S&P 500 After a Powerful Winning Streak
Jeff Hirsch from Stock Trader's Almanac
Time To Take A Breather?
S&P 500 just accomplished something rare: nine consecutive weekly gains. This has occurred just 14 times (including the current streak) since 1930, making the current streak one of the strongest momentum signals seen in modern market history.
The latest streak began on March 27, 2026, and as of May 29, 2026, the S&P 500 advanced an impressive 19.0%. That gain is not only well above the historical average of 10.8% for prior nine-week winning streaks, but also the strongest rally recorded in the data set.
History suggests that markets frequently take a breather immediately after such powerful advances. The average return one week after a nine-week winning streak is –0.84%, while the median return is -0.91%. Only about 31% of occurrences saw the market continue higher during the following week.
The two-week outlook is more balanced, with an average return of –0.08%. In other words, short-term consolidation or mild pullbacks have been common after extended rallies.
While short-term returns are mixed, the longer-term data appears to paint a more constructive picture. Four weeks after the streak ended, the S&P 500 posted an average gain of 1.21%, with nearly 77% of instances showing positive returns. The median gain was 1.10%.
Looking out three months, the average gain rises to 3.48%, with the market higher in more than 61% of cases. Even more impressive, six months later the average gain expands to 5.48%, while nearly 77% of historical occurrences produced positive returns.
Several past examples generated substantial follow-through rallies. The streak ending in November 1985 was followed by a 22.7% gain over the next six months. The streak ending in December 2023 led to a nearly 15% advance during the subsequent six-month period.
Nine-week winning streaks have historically been more of a confirmation signal than a warning sign. While markets often experience short-term consolidation after such a strong run, the longer-term trend has generally remained positive.
The ES made a new high on Globex at 7623.00 and sold off down to 7577.00 as oil started going up and traded 7583.00 on Monday's regular session open, down 12 points or -0.12%.
After the open, the ES sold off down to 7576.25, then rallied up to 7596.75 at 9:50. It sold off down to a higher low at 7581.50 at 10:00, rallied back up to 7596.25, then sold off down to another higher low at 7581.00 at 10:40. From there, the ES rallied up to 7603.00 at 11:40, sold off down to another higher low at 7587.00 at 12:25, and then rallied 22.25 points up to 7609.25 at 12:55. It sold off down to 7589.75, then rallied 42.50 points up to 7632.25 at 1:40. After that, the ES pulled back to 7622.00 and traded in a narrow 3- to 5-point back-and-fill. It then sold off down to 7626.00 at 3:48 and traded 7615.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $3 billion to sell, before trading 7614.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, it sold off down to 7606.50 and settled at 7613.25, up 17.50 points or +0.23%. The NQ settled at 30566.25, +161 points or +0.53%, the YM settled at 51134, up 57 points or +0.11%, and the RTY settled at 2909.70, down 14.60 points or -0.50% on the day.
In the end, the ES weakened due to the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, which pushed crude oil prices up $4.00 and the bonds and notes sold off, but the Nasdaq was strong because NVDA unveiled its new superchip at the Computex conference in Taipei. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it seemed to shake off the early weakness, but after making the late-day new all-time contract highs, it failed into the close. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was steady at 1.319 million contracts traded.
I don’t have a lot to say today, but what I will say is that with the markets up so much, there seems to be this constant, high level of uncertainty. If it's not higher yields, it's inflation and energy prices and the ever-elusive US/Iran deal, but the band keeps playing on.
Market-on-Close Recap
The 15:50 MOC opened with a clear sell imbalance and stayed that way through the close, though the pressure moderated as the auction developed. The first print showed roughly $705M for sale, with the dollar lean at -75.0% and the symbol lean at -70.2%, a wholesale sell indication on both measures. One minute later, the imbalance expanded sharply to -$3.087B, with $1.796B to buy against $4.882B to sell. That 15:51 snapshot became the strongest broad-market signal: All Markets leaned -73.1% by dollars and -59.1% by symbols, while the S&P 500 was even heavier at -74.7% dollar lean and -63.6% symbol lean. NASDAQ showed the most aggressive dollar pressure at -77.7%, with symbol lean right on the wholesale threshold at -66.0%.
From there, the sell imbalance began to transition lower but never flipped. The total imbalance improved from -$3.087B to -$2.431B, then -$2.124B, and briefly below -$1B at 15:54. The auction then stabilized in the -$700M to -$1.3B range before closing near -$291M at 16:01. That transition suggests early forced sell interest was absorbed progressively into the close rather than accelerating.
Sector action was broadly negative. Information Technology was the largest drag at -$1.425B, led by sell-side pressure in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, CSCO, and CRM, even though MU, ACN, DDOG, and NOW appeared on the buy list. Financials were also heavy at -$465M with a -79.1% dollar lean, despite buy interest in MS, BRK.B, and GS. Communication Services leaned -86.1%, a notable wholesale sell reading, with GOOGL and GOOG prominent sellers while META showed buy interest. Energy was another wholesale sell at -80.5%, driven by XOM and CVX.
Notable buy-side symbols included MU, TSLA, BKNG, ARM, FDX, GS, ACN, DDOG, NOW, and META. But the dominant story was institutional selling across Technology, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Real Estate, and Energy, with several sector dollar leans beyond -66%, indicating broad wholesale sell pressure rather than simple rotation.
Fair Values for June 2, 2026:
SP: 10.49
NQ: 49.65
Dow: 60.27
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, June 1, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 122 / 61
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 434 / 114
• NYSE TRIN: 0.65
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.59
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, May 29, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 267 / 104
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 858 / 256
• NYSE TRIN: 1.09
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.97
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
Economic Calendar
Today’s S&P500 Earnings: 31
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, June 1, 2026
Monday’s PTG session was a patient, structure-driven trading day. The room focused on staying aligned with market context, avoiding forced trades during consolidation, and waiting for cleaner opportunities. The best positive example came late in the day when the DLMB Zone finally played out after a long wait.
Morning Setup
David opened with the daily links, strategy resources, range calculator, and risk disclaimer.
The room reviewed “Learn the Plan LIVE” material.
The early message of the day was motivational: “Don’t Ever Give Up!”
Members checked audio/video and helped troubleshoot connection issues.
Market Context
The room identified Monday morning as a consolidated range rhythm environment.
Discussion focused on staying inside the day’s “sandbox” and recognizing that price was in the lower half of that range.
The group worked through how trapped sellers can be identified using candle structure, tails, body-only outside bars, and volume behavior.
A key theme was: staying aligned = staying alive.
Trade Management Lessons
The room emphasized patience while price remained in range.
Ram noted that the better approach was to wait for a breakout up or down, then look for the first pullback.
When no A+ setup appeared after the pullback, the lesson was not to force a trade.
Volume bars were discussed as a tool for understanding whether buyers or sellers were adding pressure.
Bullish Structure
Buyers appeared to maintain an advantage during parts of the morning.
Price action staying above the ATR 7 Bull line was noted as supportive.
The room connected structure, volume, and trader positioning to assess who had control.
Afternoon Market Development
The NASDAQ 100 extended gains to nearly 1%.
NVDA was a major driver, trading up more than 5% and later around 6%.
David joked that NVDA was like “Joe Atlas” holding up the market.
Price later tested the Money Box area.
Closing Action
Near the close, David posted a $3.0 billion MOC sell imbalance.
He noted that price had been held up to fill buyers before the expected closing pressure.
The market finally delivered the expected move from the DLMB Zone, but patience was required.
Positive Trade Highlight
Bruce F stayed with his DLMB target at 7612.
Moments later, David confirmed the target had been reached: “There you got it.”
David added “Well Played,” and the room congratulated Bruce.
This was the clearest successful trade example of the day.
Key Takeaways
Consolidation requires patience, not prediction.
The best trades come from alignment with structure, volume, and market rhythm.
Waiting for A+ setups protects traders from overtrading.
Targets can work, but patience is often the cost of getting paid.
Bruce’s DLMB trade was a strong example of discipline, planning, and execution.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, June 2, 2026
Morning Market Tone
Index futures are slightly negative with a mild risk-off tone.
VIX is modestly higher, showing increased hedging but no panic.
Gold is stronger while Bitcoin is weaker, signaling rotation toward traditional safety.
Crude is lower, easing immediate inflation pressure but still tied to geopolitical headlines.
Macro & Geopolitics
US–Iran tensions remain the key macro driver.
Oil’s decline suggests markets are lowering the probability of immediate escalation.
Energy-linked volatility remains important for ES traders.
Inflation stickiness remains in focus after Australia’s wage hike and BOJ rate-path commentary.
Tech & AI Leadership
AI and semiconductor names continue to anchor market leadership.
Nvidia remains a major liquidity leader across the AI complex.
HPE surged on strong AI-server backlog.
SK Hynix’s capacity plans point to long-cycle confidence in AI demand.
Market Breadth
Strength is concentrated in tech, AI, software, housing, and energy storage.
Weakness remains visible in EVs, space infrastructure, biotech, and some cyclicals.
Breadth is constructive but still not fully broad-based.
Today’s Catalysts
Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks at 8:30am ET.
JOLTS Job Openings are due at 10:00am ET.
Earnings include Dollar General premarket, Palo Alto Networks and Ulta Beauty after the close, and Medtronic Wednesday morning.
ES Outlook
ES volatility remains contained, with the 5-day average daily range near 62.75 points.
Whale bias is slightly bullish into the US open on elevated overnight large-trader volume.
The key pivot remains the former short-term channel top at 7591/96.
Holding above 7591/96 keeps upside open, while rejection shifts focus to 7530/35 support.
ES Levels
Resistance: 7591/96, 7935/40
Support: 7530/35, 7450/55, 7392/97
