We Need a Pullback to Set Up Some Buying Opportunities

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Want an idea? I think you trade less and pick your spots better in December. 

There are a lot of reasons for saying this, but my main reason is, I have seen a lot of customers lose money in the last month of the year. Accounts that were either up a little or down a little start pressing bets — and then they lose. 

I know a lot of traders — me included — think there could be weakness in the first two weeks of December. Frankly, it would be good if there was some weakness! However, the ES has quickly come off its high by 50 points, while the DAX continues to power higher and remains within spitting distance of new highs. 

I guess what I am saying is, even if the ES does selloff, it won’t do it without some bounces.

The market is trading well, but I did find this article interesting: JPMorgan predicts a grim outlook for the stock market next year.

Of note: “The sizable rally in the U.S. stock market over the past month is likely to fizzle out by the end of next year amid a number of growing economic headwinds, according to JPMorgan Chase.”

"Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year with softening consumer trends at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have mostly reversed," Lakos-Bujas wrote in the note.

“The benchmark index could fall to 4,200 by the end of 2024 — down about 8% from current levels, according to the JPMorgan strategists. It is the most bearish outlook yet among major Wall Street firms.”