MrTopStep / WEEKLY GUIDE

Friday’s Rebound Needs More Company

Services data, Fed minutes and consumer sentiment will test the recovery—wait for ES strength to win broader participation.

01 / This Week

The first full week of October asks whether Friday’s rebound can become a broader advance. NQ showed relative strength, but weak weekly breadth leaves ES with something to prove at 7796.00–7810.25. Monday’s services report, Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s consumer sentiment will test the growth and inflation outlook; watch Treasury yields alongside the equity reaction. Monday retains a limited turn-of-month tailwind, not a standalone buy signal. Our posture: wait for sustained price acceptance and improving participation before backing a breakout; failed rallies and renewed new lows favor caution.

02 / Market Moving Catalysts for the Week

October 5–9 brings a services-sector test, the September Fed minutes, Treasury supply, and fresh reads on the consumer. Watch how yields respond alongside ES and NQ. All times are Eastern Daylight Time.

Monday, October 5

• 10:00 a.m. — ISM Services PMI for September. Watch business activity, employment and prices paid for the balance between growth and inflation pressure.

Tuesday, October 6

• 8:30 a.m. — August U.S. international trade in goods and services. Export and import trends help frame growth and the dollar backdrop.

• 10:00 a.m. — New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. A renewed rise could complicate the inflation picture.

• 10:45 a.m. — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on regulation and supervision. The announced topic is banking regulation; do not assume a monetary-policy signal.

• 3-year Treasury note auction — Date listed on Treasury’s tentative schedule; auction time not verified. Watch the resulting yield and demand for a read on appetite for shorter-duration debt.

Wednesday, October 7

• 10:30 a.m. — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Crude and product inventories can affect oil, energy leadership and the inflation discussion.

• 11:00 a.m. — New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. Watch households’ inflation expectations and financial outlook.

• 2:00 p.m. — Minutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Look for the policy debate and risks the committee emphasized. This is a record of the prior meeting, not a new rate decision.

• 3:00 p.m. — August consumer credit. Changes in borrowing provide another perspective on household financing.

• 5:00 p.m. — Levi Strauss third-quarter earnings conference call. Apparel demand and margins can add to the consumer picture. This is the call time, not a verified results-release time.

• 10-year Treasury note reopening — Date listed on Treasury’s tentative schedule; auction time not verified. Demand at the benchmark maturity can influence the rates backdrop for equities.

Thursday, October 8

• 4:30 a.m. — Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook in Istanbul. Overnight remarks could affect rates before the U.S. cash open.

• Approximately 6:00 a.m. — PepsiCo third-quarter results; analyst Q&A at 8:15 a.m. Watch pricing, volumes and guidance for a read on consumer staples demand.

• 8:30 a.m. — Weekly initial unemployment claims. Watch whether layoffs support or challenge the broader labor-market picture.

• 10:00 a.m. — August wholesale trade, sales and inventories. The sales-to-inventory relationship helps assess demand and stocking conditions.

• 10:30 a.m. — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, on the regular Thursday schedule. Relevant primarily to natural gas and energy exposure.

• 30-year Treasury bond reopening — Date listed on Treasury’s tentative schedule; auction time not verified. Watch long-end demand and any spillover into equity valuations.

Friday, October 9

• 10:00 a.m. — Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October. Watch inflation expectations alongside confidence; a surprise could move yields as well as equities.

• 10:00 a.m. — Delta Air Lines third-quarter earnings webcast. Travel demand, fares and fuel-cost commentary offer a consumer and energy cross-check. This is the confirmed webcast time; the results-release time is not verified.

03 / Seasonality Watch

For October 5–9, the clearest calendar feature is Monday’s position as October’s third trading day. McConnell and Xu’s study of CRSP daily U.S. equity returns over 1926–2005 found stronger returns around the last trading day of a month and the first three of the next. Monday is the final day of that historical window; Tuesday–Friday fall outside it. This is broad cash-equity history, not a current ES futures backtest or a measured win rate for this exact week.

Bullish tendency: A limited turn-of-month tailwind on Monday. Require ES to hold pullbacks while NYSE and Nasdaq advancing issues and upside volume sustain Friday’s improvement. Weak full-week participation means the calendar needs confirmation from the tape.

Bearish tendency: No meaningful bearish seasonal edge verified for October 5–9. The turn-of-month effect ending is not itself a sell signal. Renewed new lows and failed rallies would be evidence of market weakness, rather than proof of an October pattern.

04 / Breadth

Friday’s rebound improved participation, but the full week still showed more declining than advancing issues on both exchanges. These are cash-equity breadth readings for ES/NQ context, not futures volume.

Daily Breadth — October 2, 2026

Weekly Breadth — Week Ending October 2, 2026

What the participation says: Friday had an advancing majority in issues and volume, yet new lows still exceeded new highs. The week’s 36%–37% advance share shows that the bounce has not established broad weekly strength. NYSE’s October 2 recap also reports that the equal-weight S&P 500 lagged the headline index. Our read: participation is improving from a weak base; a durable broadening remains unconfirmed. Low weekly TRIN does not cancel the weak issue counts.

Read for next week: For October 5–9, look for advancing issues and volume to lead on both exchanges over repeated sessions, with fewer new lows and better equal-weight participation alongside ES gains. If indexes rally while most issues lag, or downside volume and new lows expand again, treat that as weaker confirmation.

05 / Technicals

Last week’s tape: During September 28–October 2, December ES (ESZ6) traded between 7672.75 and 7810.25, finishing at 7776.50. Thursday marked the weekly low; Friday delivered the high and a recovery into the upper quarter of the range. ES nevertheless finished below its 7796.00 weekly opening trade. These Globex levels use Databento hourly bars; ES and NQ closing references are final-bar prices, not official settlements.

December NQ (NQZ6) showed relative strength, trading 30356.75–31282.50 and finishing at 31049.00, above its 30870.00 weekly open. NQ established its weekly low Monday, while ES continued lower into Thursday. Both reached their weekly highs Friday.

Levels that carry forward: ES 7796.00–7810.25 is the first resistance zone, combining the weekly open and high. Sustained acceptance above it would strengthen the recovery. 7776.50 is the initial closing reference. Friday’s 7723.25 low is the next support check; losing it would expose the 7672.75 weekly low.

For NQ, 31049.00 is the closing reference and 31282.50 the breakout threshold. Friday’s 30760.25 low helps determine whether technology leadership is holding.

Setup for the coming week: For October 5–9, the bullish scenario requires ES to reclaim 7796.00 and hold above 7810.25, with NQ confirming above 31282.50. A daily close above these highs would carry more weight than an intraday breach; slipping back into the range would weaken the breakout.

The bearish scenario begins with rejection at ES 7796.00–7810.25. Losing 7723.25 would strengthen that read and bring 7672.75 into focus. Sustained recovery above the resistance zone would invalidate the rejection setup.

06 / This Week’s Tactical Focus

Start with patience: Friday’s rebound improved the tape, but weekly breadth remained weak. Early-month seasonality is context, not an entry signal; no exact-week ES seasonal edge has been validated. December ES (ESZ6) must earn acceptance above 7796.00–7810.25. On the downside, 7723.25, then 7672.75, are the prior-week support checks. December NQ (NQZ6) confirmation means holding its rebound and eventually clearing 31282.50.

Monday, October 5: Let the 10:00 a.m. ET ISM Services report establish the first meaningful reaction. An ES break above 7810.25 becomes actionable only if a retest holds, NQ participates and advancing issues and upside volume improve. Rejection at 7796.00–7810.25 followed by a failed reclaim favors a downside rotation. A move below 7723.25 opens the weekly-low test. Wait if ES rallies while breadth deteriorates or yields surge; falling back into the range invalidates the breakout setup.

Tuesday, October 6: Test whether Monday’s direction survives 8:30 a.m. trade data and the 10:00 a.m. supply-chain update. If Monday broke higher, favor a successful retest of 7810.25 with broader participation. If Monday stayed inside the range, avoid treating its midpoint as an edge. If it broke lower, a failed reclaim of 7723.25 keeps 7672.75 relevant. A reversal through Monday’s range or ES/NQ disagreement calls for patience. Use Monday’s actual high and low once known; do not preassign them.

Wednesday, October 7: The 2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes are the main reset. They describe September’s meeting, not a new rate decision. Avoid committing to the first headline move. Favor upside continuation only after price holds above the established weekly range with NQ and breadth confirmation. A failed breakout followed by loss of that range supports the bearish alternative. If Treasury yields rise while NQ weakens, demand stronger confirmation before buying. Rapid reversals around the pre-release range invalidate the initial read.

Thursday, October 8: Reassess Wednesday’s outcome after 8:30 a.m. initial claims; Waller’s 4:30 a.m. economic-outlook speech may already have affected overnight rates. If the minutes produced a confirmed breakout, look for the first pullback to hold the reclaimed boundary. If they produced a rejection, favor failed recovery attempts while breadth remains weak. ES losing 7723.25 would bring 7672.75 back into focus if those levels remain relevant. A reclaim of the rejected range invalidates the bearish setup. Mixed claims, rates and price reactions are a reason to wait.

Friday, October 9: Wait for 10:00 a.m. preliminary Michigan sentiment, including inflation expectations, before judging continuation. Favor a pullback that holds above a confirmed breakout with broad participation; NQ above 31282.50 would strengthen the leadership check. A failed retest of the week’s highs with weakening breadth favors rejection instead. Use the range actually established Monday–Thursday, and abandon the first interpretation if price reverses through the post-release range.

The week’s tell: Can ES hold above 7810.25 through a cash close while participation broadens? That would improve the recovery case. Keep risk tied to the observed setup, avoid chasing into releases, and stay flat when price and confirmation disagree.

07 / PitBull TV

Sunday, October 4 — Trey Talk, LIVE at 5:30 p.m. ET
Join Trey for Trey Talk. Watch live on YouTube.

Monday, October 5 — Live with Manny, 9:15 a.m. ET
Watch Manny_Trends cover the open and walk through the morning’s market setup.

Tuesday, October 6 — Quick Draw Bo, 9:15 a.m. ET
Quick Draw Bo takes you through the open with live market commentary.

Wednesday, October 7 — Live with David Dube, 9:15 a.m. ET
Join David Dube, head trader and owner of Polaris Trading Group, for his approach to the open.

Thursday, October 8 — Market Profile with Tom
Watch Tom trade Market Profile live in the markets. Start time to be confirmed.

Friday, October 9 — Historical Quant Analysis with Rich Miller
Rich Miller from HandelStats covers the markets using historical quantitative data. Start time to be confirmed.

Watch on PitBullTraders YouTube or join the Pit Room.

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