MrTopStep Weekly Guide · October 26–30, 2026

Sunday, October 25 · Week ahead: October 26–30. The Fed, inflation and AI earnings meet a divided tape: ES/NQ finished near weekly lows while small-cap and equal-weight stocks gained.

// THIS WEEK

October 26–30 puts the Fed, inflation and AI earnings on the same tape. December ES lost 0.40% and NQ 0.74% last week, while small-cap and equal-weight ETFs gained. Late-week lows still leave repair work. Higher oil prices and Meta’s negative free cash flow sharpen the stakes for Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. Wednesday’s Fed decision is followed by Thursday’s GDP/PCE release and Friday’s Employment Cost Index. Month-end seasonality is only a backdrop; a durable rebound needs price support and broader participation.

// MARKET MOVING CATALYSTS FOR THE WEEK

October 26–30 · All times Eastern (EDT, UTC−4). The Fed decision, GDP and PCE inflation, and major technology earnings dominate the week. No U.S. cash-equity or equity-index futures holiday interruption is scheduled.

Monday, October 26

• 7:00 a.m.: Verizon (VZ) results; call at 8:30 a.m. Watch subscriber trends and consumer demand.

• 8:30 a.m. / 10:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, then the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Both offer activity checks ahead of the Fed.

• Treasury: 2-year note auction on the tentative calendar; demand could affect front-end yields.

Tuesday, October 27

• 8:30 a.m.: September durable-goods orders. Core capital-goods details provide a business-investment check.

• 10:00 a.m.: Consumer confidence and new-home sales. Watch household sentiment and rate-sensitive demand.

• Treasury: 5-year note auction on the tentative calendar. The two-day FOMC meeting begins.

• After close: Visa (V) results; call at 5:00 p.m. Payments and cross-border volume offer a consumer-spending read-through.

Wednesday, October 28

• 8:30 a.m.: September advance economic indicators, including goods trade and inventories, ahead of Thursday’s GDP release.

• 2:00 p.m. / 2:30 p.m.: FOMC decision and press conference. The policy message can reset rates, the dollar and ES/NQ volatility.

• Earnings: Microsoft (MSFT) reports after close, with its call at 5:30 p.m. Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) holds its call at 4:30 p.m., with results due beforehand. Cloud growth, AI spending and guidance could drive NQ’s next session.

Thursday, October 29

• 8:30 a.m.: Q3 GDP advance estimate and September personal income, spending and PCE inflation, alongside initial jobless claims. Growth and inflation arrive together, making the rates response especially important.

• 9:15 a.m. / 9:45 a.m.: ECB policy decision and press conference. Europe’s clock change puts these events an hour later in New York than their usual summer times.

• Treasury: 7-year note auction on the tentative calendar; watch demand after the macro releases.

• Earnings: Intel (INTC) reports after close. Amazon (AMZN) holds its earnings call at 5:00 p.m. Semiconductors, AWS and spending plans are the key index read-throughs.

Friday, October 30

• 6:30 a.m.: ExxonMobil (XOM) results; call at 9:30 a.m. Energy earnings could influence sector leadership.

• 8:30 a.m.: Q3 Employment Cost Index. Compensation growth is the week’s final major U.S. inflation checkpoint.

• 11:00 a.m.: Chevron (CVX) earnings call. Watch margins and production commentary.

• Noon: San Francisco Fed AI and the Economy conference opens with Mary Daly. Friday is also October’s final cash-equity session.

Overnight watch: The Bank of Japan meets October 29–30, Japan time, with its outlook summary due October 30; a fixed decision time is not posted. Yen and global-rate volatility can spill into U.S. futures.

// SEASONALITY WATCH

A constructive backdrop, with conditions

October 26–30 closes out the month, with Friday the final cash session. The seasonal backdrop is constructive, but the evidence does not establish a stand-alone directional edge for these five ES/NQ sessions.

Bullish tendency: U.S. cash-equity returns from 1926–2005 show historical strength around the last trading day of a month and the first three of the next. Only Friday falls inside that classic window this week; the November sessions come later. This is broad equity-market evidence, not a rolled-futures backtest.

Bearish tendency: There is no established calendar-only bearish edge for these exact five ES/NQ sessions in this review. Equally, a favorable month-end tendency does not prevent a drawdown. The Fed decision, inflation releases and major earnings can overwhelm the calendar, and those are event risks rather than seasonal effects.

Trading takeaway: Give a late-week recovery more weight if price holds support and participation improves. If support fails and breadth deteriorates, trade the tape rather than the calendar.

// BREADTH

Daily breadth · Friday, October 23, 2026

A closing-session snapshot, not weekly totals. Percentages exclude unchanged issues and volume; combined figures use summed underlying counts and volumes.

The week in breadth · October 19–23

The week’s message was repair, not an all-clear. Positive Tuesday/Wednesday participation generated a stocks-only breadth-oscillator buy signal. Mid-cap participation was also recovering: the share of S&P MidCap 400 stocks above their 50-day averages had rebounded to about 50% from below 20% earlier in October. These October 23 pre-close assessments are not Friday closing readings or five-day totals. Friday’s final exchange snapshot was weaker: downside volume led on both exchanges, and new lows exceeded new highs.

Next week’s test: For October 26–30, watch whether more stocks regain their 50-day averages while advancing issues and upside volume recover majorities on both exchanges. Mid-cap participation above 60% would strengthen the specific thrust setup, not provide a universal buy signal. Fewer new lows and expanding highs would add confirmation. Without that follow-through, treat index rebounds as repair attempts rather than evidence of a broad advance.

// TECHNICALS

The midweek rebound did not hold. December E-mini S&P 500 futures (ESZ6) finished October 19–23 at 7,672.50, down 30.50 points, or 0.40%, from the previous Friday's full-session close. ES advanced to Wednesday's 7,812.25 high, then reversed to Friday's 7,648.50 weekly low. The 163.75-point range ended with the close only 14.7% above its bottom.

• ESZ6 full-week O/H/L/C: 7,679.50 / 7,812.25 / 7,648.50 / 7,672.50. Cleared volume: 9,794,397 contracts.

• NQZ6 full-week O/H/L/C: 29,227.00 / 30,113.00 / 28,987.00 / 29,175.00. Down 216.25 points (0.74%) from October 16. Cleared volume: 3,659,713 contracts.

Ranked watchlist for October 26–30:

1. ESZ6: Friday's 7,648.50 low is the first downside reference. A daily full-session close above Friday's 7,714.25 high would begin repairing the late-week decline; Wednesday's 7,812.25 remains the weekly upside boundary.

2. NQZ6: The 29,175.00 close sat only 16.7% above the bottom of its 1,126-point weekly range. Watch 28,987.00 below and Friday's 29,326.00 high above. The weekly high remains 30,113.00.

3. Leadership: RSP outperformed SPY by 1.57 percentage points and IWM gained 1.96% for the week. Retention of that relative strength would support a broader recovery; loss of it would remove an important offset to ES/NQ weakness.

Conditional paths: Daily full-session closes back above both Friday highs would improve the rebound case. Closes below both weekly lows would instead confirm renewed downside expansion. One contract reclaiming resistance while the other lags would be incomplete confirmation.

Price basis: December 2026 futures, full Globex sessions from 6 p.m. ET on the prior day through 5 p.m. ET. Closing observations are not official settlements. ETF comparisons are October 16–23 closing-price returns, excluding dividends. This short sample does not establish a long-history extreme or an overbought/oversold signal.

// THIS WEEK’S TACTICAL FOCUS

October 26–30 · December ES (ESZ6) and NQ (NQZ6). Start with a repair test, not a reversal call. Last week's 5 p.m. ET closes were 7,672.50 ES and 29,175.00 NQ. The October 23 highs, 7,714.25 and 29,326.00, are the first recovery tests; last week's lows, 7,648.50 and 28,987.00, are the downside boundaries. Require daily Globex closing acceptance for confirmation. Better weekly performance in equal-weight and small-cap ETFs is encouraging, but it does not establish exchange-wide breadth confirmation.

• Monday, October 26: After the 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed activity release and 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed survey, watch whether the weekly lows hold. Stabilization with improving participation supports a repair attempt; acceptance below those lows favors continuation lower. A quick reclaim negates the breakdown setup.

• Tuesday, October 27: Let 8:30 a.m. durable goods and 10:00 a.m. confidence/new-home sales pass before chasing. Reclaims of the recovery lines support repair; failed reclaims leave the lows exposed. Repeated crossings mean stand aside, especially with the Fed decision ahead.

• Wednesday, October 28: Wait through the 2:00 p.m. Fed decision and 2:30 p.m. press conference. Closes above both recovery lines with improving breadth favor follow-through; closes below both weekly lows favor renewed weakness. A headline spike that reverses is no confirmation. Manage Microsoft and Alphabet earnings exposure before the cash close; do not wait for the later Globex confirmation.

• Thursday, October 29: The 8:30 a.m. GDP/PCE releases and claims test the post-Fed and technology-earnings reaction. Favor repair if recovered levels hold through the data and NQ confirms ES; losing them with downside-volume majorities weakens that case. Conflicting index reactions mean wait. Manage Amazon and Intel earnings exposure before the cash close, separately from any later Globex closing confirmation.

• Friday, October 30: Watch the 8:30 a.m. Employment Cost Index, then month-end acceptance. Holding recovered levels with broader participation supports repair; fresh weekly lows defeat it. A late squeeze that fails to hold into the close is insufficient. Friday is this week’s only session inside the classic turn-of-month window; seasonality cannot override price.

Execution: Avoid chasing immediately into releases, size to event volatility, and stay flat when price and participation disagree. Allow for additional oil and AI-spending headlines beyond the scheduled releases. A successful repair would next confront last week's 7,812.25 ES and 30,113.00 NQ highs, not guarantee a return to them.

The week's tell: Can both contracts finish back above their October 23 highs while advancing issues and volume regain majorities on both exchanges?

// PITBULL TV

October 25–30 · All times Eastern (EDT). Start the week with Trey, then join the weekday Pitbull TV lineup.

Sunday, October 25 · 5:30 p.m.: Trey Talk | Swing Trading the Week Ahead. This dated live event is posted on PitBullTraders YouTube.

Monday, October 26 · 9:15 a.m.: Manny Payano. Published working time; ongoing start time awaits reconfirmation.

Tuesday, October 27 · 9:15 a.m.: Quick Draw Bo, Pit Room.

Wednesday, October 28 · 9:15 a.m.: David Dube / Polaris Trading Group.

Thursday, October 29 · 9:15 a.m.: Tom Incorvia / Market Profile, Pit Room.

Friday, October 30 · Time to be confirmed: Rich Miller / HandelStats.com.

Weekday entries follow the current working lineup; individual dated stream links are not yet posted. Check the PitBullTraders YouTube channel for updates.

Don't trade the open alone. Join us live in The Pit for free, follow the conversation, and bring your questions.