MR TOP STEP / WEEKLY GUIDE

Inflation Meets a Damaged Tape

November 8, 2026 • Reviewing November 2–6; preparing for November 9–13.

CPI, producer prices and Treasury supply test whether a fragile rebound can become a broader recovery.

01 / This Week

Friday’s rebound did not repair the week’s damage: December ES settled 2.78% below the prior Friday, while participation remained uneven. Tuesday’s CPI and Friday’s PPI now put inflation and Treasury yields back at the center of the trade. October payrolls rose 165,000 with unemployment at 4.1%, leaving little room to dismiss the rate backdrop. Technology earnings, Treasury auctions and oil volatility add crosscurrents. November’s historical seasonal tailwind is context, not a buy signal. Make a recovery prove itself through price acceptance and broader participation.

02 / Market Moving Catalysts for the Week

November 9–13 • All times Eastern Standard Time (UTC−5). Consumer and producer inflation, Treasury refunding auctions and technology earnings lead the week. Veterans Day interrupts the cash-bond calendar, not the stock-market week.

Monday, November 9: September wholesale sales and inventories arrive at 10:00 a.m., followed by the consumer-expectations survey at 11:00 a.m. Watch demand, inventory accumulation and inflation expectations. The $58 billion 3-year Treasury auction at 1:00 p.m. begins the refunding sequence and provides a fresh test of demand for government debt.

Tuesday, November 10: Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook at 4:00 a.m. October CPI and real earnings at 8:30 a.m. are the main premarket risk, with implications for yields, the dollar and rate-sensitive equities. October year-over-year CPI changes will be unavailable for indexes missing October 2025 data after last year’s shutdown; focus on the monthly readings and component detail. The $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction follows at 1:00 p.m. Michelle Bowman’s economic-outlook remarks are scheduled for 3:30 p.m. and 6:30 p.m.; separate incoming data from policymakers’ interpretation. CoreWeave’s earnings call is at 5:00 p.m., a test of AI infrastructure demand, spending and financing.

Wednesday, November 11: Veterans Day. U.S. cash equities retain their normal session, while a full closure is recommended for U.S. dollar fixed-income trading. Do not mistake the holiday for an equity-market shutdown. Reduced cash-bond participation may make cross-market confirmation less useful.

Thursday, November 12: Nebius reports before the open, with its earnings call at 8:00 a.m. Watch AI cloud demand and capacity spending. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and October existing-home sales at 10:00 a.m. test labor resilience and housing demand. The $25 billion 30-year Treasury auction at 1:00 p.m. shifts attention to long-duration demand. Cisco releases results after the close, with its call at 4:30 p.m.; Applied Materials also holds its earnings call at 4:30 p.m. Network spending and semiconductor-equipment guidance could influence the technology trade.

Friday, November 13: October PPI at 8:30 a.m. adds the producer-price side of the inflation picture. Compare its details with Tuesday’s consumer-price report rather than assuming the two measures tell the same story. Philip Jefferson’s productivity and macroeconomic-activity speech is scheduled for 7:00 p.m., after the cash-equity close.

Unscheduled risks: Post-election AI and data-center policy headlines could shift expectations for project approvals, power availability and buildout costs. Watch the response in AI infrastructure and semiconductor shares rather than assuming a new restriction is already in force. Iran and Strait of Hormuz headlines could also move crude and inflation expectations; escalation or de-escalation may alter the rates and equity reaction even when the scheduled data are unchanged.

03 / Seasonality Watch

November 9–13 falls inside a historically supportive month, but that is not a tested five-session forecast. Across the seven midterm-election years in a 1996–2025 adjusted-SPY sample, November averaged a 3.41% gain and finished higher six times. Other Novembers averaged 2.51%. These are full-month ETF returns, not ES futures returns, and seven observations leave substantial uncertainty.

Bullish tendency: The broader post-midterm backdrop favors keeping a recovery scenario open. This week, sustained gains above Friday’s ES high and improving participation would make that backdrop more useful than the calendar alone.

Bearish tendency: No meaningful bearish edge is established for this exact week. That does not remove downside risk: the 2018 election-to-year-end window lost 8.6% in the same historical study. A failed rebound and expanding new lows would outweigh the seasonal tailwind.

04 / Breadth

A Friday rebound, not a weekly all-clear. Friday’s improving participation followed Thursday’s sharp deterioration. Weekly Nasdaq advancing-issue participation remained below 40%, while the NYSE held just above 53%. That split argues for distinguishing rotation from a broad recovery.

Breadth is advancing share volume divided by advancing plus declining volume. Advance/Decline is the advancing share of advancing plus declining issues; unchanged issues are excluded. Totals combine NYSE and Nasdaq underlying counts and volume. New highs/lows are 52-week counts. Daily TRIN is the reported closing reading; weekly TRIN is calculated from weekly issue and volume totals.

What the participation says: Friday’s Nasdaq new lows fell from Thursday’s 851 to 390, but still greatly exceeded new highs. Such a contraction can accompany a relief bounce without proving the damage is repaired. Earlier-week evidence of broadening outside the largest technology names offered a constructive counterpoint, but preceded Thursday’s selloff and cannot establish Friday’s condition. The completed-week figures remain mixed: nearly balanced combined upside volume, but fewer than half of issues advancing.

Read for next week: A stronger recovery needs repeated majority advancing participation on both exchanges and fewer new lows as ES reclaims resistance. If Nasdaq participation weakens again while new lows expand, treat an index bounce as fragile rather than declaring a bottom.

05 / Technicals

Last week’s tape: December E-mini S&P 500 futures (ESZ6), November 2–6, opened the full Globex week at 7,626, reached 7,746.25 on Wednesday, then fell to 7,322.25 on Friday. Friday’s official settlement was 7,402, down 212 points (2.78%) from October 30. The 5:00 p.m. Eastern last trade was 7,404, near the lower fifth of the 424-point weekly range. Friday’s 19-point settlement gain recovered only a small part of Thursday’s damage.

Nasdaq confirmation: December Nasdaq-100 futures (NQZ6) reinforced the damage. The 5:00 p.m. Eastern last trade on November 6 was 27,107.50, down 5.03% from the October 30 last trade at the same time of 28,543. These are last-trade prices, not settlements. The November 2–6 full Globex range was 26,366.50–28,969; Friday’s rebound did not erase the weekly decline.

Setup for November 9–13: Treat 7,402 as a settlement reference, not automatic support. A daily close above 7,469–7,490, followed by a successful retest and broader participation, would strengthen the bullish scenario. Rejection below that zone keeps the damaged weekly structure in control; loss of 7,322.25 would invalidate the initial stabilization case. These are observed price references and conditional interpretations, not calculated BTS levels.

06 / This Week’s Tactical Focus

December E-mini S&P 500 (ESZ6), November 9–13. Treat 7,402, Friday’s settlement, as a reference, not a guaranteed floor. The stronger recovery case needs a daily close above Friday’s 7,469 high and Wednesday’s 7,490 low, followed by a successful retest; the downside references are Thursday’s 7,346 low and the week’s 7,322.25 low. Here, “hold” means a break followed by a successful retest, not a single print. A favorable seasonal backdrop does not override weak participation.

Monday, November 9: Start with Friday’s range rather than assuming a gap. A successful retest above 7,469, with advancing issues and upside volume improving on both exchanges, would support a recovery attempt toward 7,490. Rejection back into the range favors patience; loss of 7,402 with worsening breadth puts 7,346 in focus. Watch the 1:00 p.m. Treasury auction before treating a rates move as settled.

Tuesday, November 10: Let the 8:30 a.m. CPI release establish the reaction, emphasizing monthly and component detail where year-over-year comparisons are unavailable. A rally that holds its first retest while yields ease and participation broadens is stronger evidence than the first spike. If price rejects the recovery hurdles and yields rise, keep the defensive case active. Stand aside if price and breadth disagree or the first move reverses; reassess around the 1:00 p.m. 10-year auction. CoreWeave’s 5:00 p.m. call adds after-close AI-sector risk.

Wednesday, November 11: Equities trade on Veterans Day, but reduced cash-bond participation weakens rates confirmation. Watch whether Tuesday’s accepted range survives its first test. Hold-and-retest behavior favors continuation; a failed break favors rotation back into the range. Avoid treating thin cross-market signals as a fresh trend, and wait when the retest does not resolve.

Thursday, November 12: Start with Nebius’s premarket results and 8:00 a.m. call. Claims at 8:30 a.m., housing at 10:00 a.m. and the 1:00 p.m. 30-year auction create separate decision points. A higher low with broader participation supports recovery; failure at 7,469–7,490 keeps that recovery unproven. If the week’s low breaks and cannot be reclaimed, stop leaning on the bullish seasonal case. Do not chase late technology exposure into the after-close earnings calls.

Friday, November 13: Reassess after 8:30 a.m. PPI and the reaction to Thursday’s technology results. Favor continuation only when the post-release range holds and breadth agrees. A failed reclaim of a broken level argues for defense; a reclaim without participation argues for waiting. Do not force a weekly close trade simply because an earlier scenario has not played out.

Risk: Size to volatility, allow the event reaction to settle, and stay flat when the confirmation is absent. Reassess if AI-policy headlines change technology leadership or Iran/Hormuz developments drive a sharp oil move. These are conditional research scenarios, not promised outcomes. The week’s tell: Can ES sustain a recovery above 7,469–7,490 while both NYSE and Nasdaq participation improve?

07 / PitBull TV

November 8–13 • Lineup, all times Eastern. Check the live channel before joining; the full dated lineup is not yet confirmed.

Tonight, Sunday, November 8: Trey Talk | Swing Trading the Week Ahead, 5:30 p.m. EST.

Monday, November 9: Manny Payano, 9:15 a.m.; confirmation pending.

Tuesday, November 10: Quick Draw Bo / Bosier Parsons, 9:15 a.m.

Wednesday, November 11: David Dube / Polaris Trading Group, 9:15 a.m.; confirmation pending.

Thursday, November 12: Tom Incorvia / Market Profile, 9:15 a.m.; this week’s appearance needs confirmation.

Friday, November 13: Rich Miller / HandelStats. Start time remains unconfirmed.

Visit the PitBullTraders YouTube channel or join the free Pit Room. These are channel and room links, not confirmed individual broadcast bookings.

08 / Be in the Room

Inside the Rooms: November 2–6

Across the rooms, the recurring lesson was to distinguish a bounce from lasting repair and to resize risk as conditions changed. IMPRO, MANNY and PTG repeatedly revised conditional frameworks rather than treating an early view as permanent.

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