MR TOP STEP / WEEKLY GUIDE

November’s Tailwind Meets an Election-Week Stress Test

Midterms, jobs and Treasury financing confront a bruised technology trade; improving participation—not seasonality alone—must confirm a recovery.

01 / This Week

November opens with a favorable seasonal backdrop but a market still needing repair. Friday’s technology-led selloff left participation weak; Tuesday’s midterm elections, Treasury financing decisions and Friday’s jobs report now test whether buyers return beyond a few heavyweight stocks. The Fed held rates steady last week while inflation remained elevated, so incoming growth and labor data still matter for yields. AI spending and earnings remain another pressure point. For November 2–6, favor confirmation over calendar optimism: sustained breadth improvement and reclaimed resistance would strengthen the rebound case; failed rallies would not.

02 / Market Moving Catalysts for the Week

November 2–6 • All times Eastern Standard Time (UTC−5). U.S. clocks turn back November 1. Election results, jobs and Treasury financing decisions anchor a full five-session cash-equity week.

Monday, November 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI and September construction spending arrive at 10:00 a.m.; the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey follows at 2:00 p.m. Watch activity, prices and credit conditions. Treasury financing estimates are also due; the date is confirmed, with the release time still to be confirmed. Palantir reports after the close, with its call at 5:00 p.m.—a check on AI-software demand.

Tuesday, November 3: September job openings and factory orders at 10:00 a.m. test labor demand and the manufacturing pipeline. U.S. midterm elections add overnight headline risk as results arrive; polling hours vary and cash equities remain open. AMD reports after the close, with a 5:00 p.m. call, putting semiconductor demand and guidance in focus.

Wednesday, November 4: Uber’s earnings call is at 8:00 a.m., followed by October private payrolls at 8:15 a.m., September international trade at 8:30 a.m. and ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. Private payrolls are an independent measure, not Friday’s government count. Treasury’s quarterly refunding is also scheduled; its release time remains to be confirmed. Issuance plans and buyback guidance could matter for yields. Qualcomm reports after the close, with a 4:45 p.m. call.

Thursday, November 5: Weekly jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity/unit labor costs arrive at 8:30 a.m. Together they test labor resilience and wage-cost pressure ahead of payrolls.

Friday, November 6: The October employment report lands at 8:30 a.m. Payrolls, unemployment, wages and revisions can reset rate expectations. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations follow at 10:00 a.m. Michelle Bowman discusses supervision and regulation at 12:15 p.m.; consumer credit follows at 3:00 p.m. Do not assume a banking-policy discussion signals a rate decision.

No scheduled FOMC decision falls within this week. Times remain subject to change.

03 / Seasonality Watch

A November tailwind—not a five-day forecast. For November 2–6, the useful seasonal backdrop is the broader month. Across 76 Novembers from 1950–2025, the S&P 500’s cash-index price return averaged +1.9%, with gains in 53 years. In the 19 midterm-year Novembers from 1950–2022, the average was +2.75%, with 15 advances. These are full-month observations, not ES futures returns or an expected move for this week.

Bullish tendency: The calendar has favored upside, particularly in midterm Novembers. Sustained strength with broader participation would make that backdrop more relevant.

Bearish tendency: Four of those 19 midterm Novembers still finished lower. Monthly averages offer no reliable protection against election-week swings or failed breakouts. Weak participation and rejection of higher prices would outweigh the seasonal bias.

Treat seasonality as context, not an entry signal; there is no verified directional statistic here for November 2–6 alone.

04 / Breadth

Daily Breadth — October 30, 2026

Weekly Breadth — Week Ending October 30, 2026

Percentages exclude unchanged issues or volume. Combined percentages use summed numerators and denominators, not venue averages. Weekly readings are period totals, not sums of daily high/low counts.

The week in breadth: Participation was mixed over the full week: NYSE advances slightly led, Nasdaq declines led, and combined upside volume was near even. Friday was considerably weaker, with just 29% of advancing-plus-declining issues higher and 29% of directional volume on the upside. New lows exceeded new highs on both exchanges in both periods.

The wider picture remains uneven. Across 14 indicators tracking a separate US common-stock universe, the average trailing-five-year percentile rank was 33 on October 30, versus 31 a week earlier—little overall repair. Large-cap participation had shown a burst of strength: the share of S&P 500 members making 20-day highs reached 50.89% on October 22, then receded to 16.10% by October 28. These measure different universes and horizons; neither is proof of a durable broad-market advance.

Read for November 2–6: Look for repeated sessions with advances and upside volume leading on both exchanges, alongside fewer new lows. An index rebound without that participation would leave the recovery vulnerable. Sustained improvement would be more persuasive than a single strong session; renewed expansion in new lows would weaken the repair case.

05 / Technicals

Early strength gave way to a weak finish. The S&P 500 cash index closed October 30 at 7,580.07, down 43.61 points (0.57%) from October 23. The October 26–30 range was 7,527.56–7,758.43; Friday finished in its lower quarter after Wednesday marked the high.

Cash-index reference levels: 7,527.56 is the first downside test. Reclaiming Friday’s 7,637.48 high would be an initial repair, not a completed reversal. The next overhead reference is the 20-session simple closing average at 7,729.90, followed by the weekly high at 7,758.43. A daily close above that high would challenge the failed-rally pattern; sustained trade below the weekly low would leave it intact.

• S&P 500: 1.94% below its October 5–30 average; watch whether rebounds can hold rather than merely touch resistance.

• Nasdaq Composite: 25,437.00, down 2.00% for the week. Technology-heavy leadership lagged the broader index.

• VIX: 19.42 on October 30, up 12.91% that day. Watch whether volatility eases alongside any price recovery.

Trey Oglesby’s perspective: In his November 1 technical review, Trey flags a Nasdaq-100 futures support failure but sees rotation into value and strength in energy, with several other sectors still resilient. His outlook remains cautiously constructive rather than uniformly risk-off: mounting headwinds and damaged technology leadership warrant respect, while recovery of broken support would strengthen the repair case.

These are cash-index levels, not ES futures execution prices. The measured stretch is relative to 20 sessions, not evidence of a historic extreme or a guaranteed bounce.

06 / This Week’s Tactical Focus

November 2–6: repair must earn its place. Friday’s weak finish and participation argue against assuming November seasonality will rescue every dip. The S&P 500 cash index’s 7,527.56 weekly low and 7,637.48 Friday high frame the first test. These are cash-index references—not ES execution prices; a verified December ES contract-level map is still needed.

Monday, November 2: Let the 10:00 a.m. activity releases settle before judging the opening move. A sustained cash-index recovery above 7,637.48, with advances and upside volume leading on both exchanges, would support a repair scenario. Rejection there or sustained trade below 7,527.56 would favor continued caution. An index bounce without participation is a reason to wait, not proof of reversal.

Tuesday, November 3: Separate the 10:00 a.m. labor/orders reaction from election-night risk and AMD’s after-close results. If Monday’s repair holds and technology participates, the upside case can develop; a failed reclaim would weaken it. Conflicting price and breadth signals—or positions that depend on guessing election outcomes—call for patience rather than conviction.

Wednesday, November 4: Reassess after election developments, private payrolls, trade data and the 10:00 a.m. services report; Treasury refunding adds another rates-sensitive catalyst. A price recovery that survives these releases with broader participation would carry more weight. A rally that reverses as new lows expand would not. Avoid treating the first headline move as the day’s settled direction.

Thursday, November 5: Use the 8:30 a.m. claims/productivity response to test whether the prior day’s range and breadth improvement hold. Acceptance above reclaimed resistance supports continuation; a return below it invalidates that immediate setup. If trade stays inside Wednesday’s range with mixed participation, rotation or standing aside is more defensible than forcing a breakout ahead of jobs.

Friday, November 6: The 8:30 a.m. jobs report resets the assessment. Upside follow-through needs participation, not merely a favorable headline. A daily cash-index close above 7,758.43 would challenge the failed-rally pattern; sustained trade below 7,527.56 would reinforce it. A reversal back through a claimed breakout level cancels the initial read.

The week’s tell: Can price reclaim resistance while advances and upside volume repeatedly lead on both exchanges? Scale risk to actual volatility, avoid chasing into scheduled releases, and keep cash-index context separate from futures entries.

07 / PitBull TV

November 1–6 • Eastern Standard Time. The working Pit lineup below is subject to dated changes. U.S. clocks turn back Sunday, November 1.

• Monday, November 2 — 9:15 a.m.: Manny Payano.

• Tuesday, November 3 — 9:15 a.m.: Quick Draw Bo / Bosier Parsons.

• Wednesday, November 4 — 9:15 a.m.: David Dube / Polaris Trading Group.

• Thursday, November 5 — 9:15 a.m.: Tom Incorvia / Market Profile.

• Friday, November 6: Rich Miller / HandelStats; start time remains unconfirmed.

Trey Talk: Trey’s November 1 review features George Cipolloni III for a discussion of credit-market concerns around the AI build-out. The video is scheduled for release at 5:30pm tonight. Get ready for the week!

Join the free Pit Trading Room or visit the PitBullTraders YouTube channel. These are room and channel destinations, not confirmed episode-specific watch links.

Coming November 14: Free Funded Path Workshop

Join Dani Sittloh in the Pit on Saturday, November 14, from noon to 2:50 p.m. Eastern for a free workshop exploring the six stages of a trading account, combining markets and mindset. A free workbook will be available in the Pit before the workshop. Stephanie Radkay closes the session with a sound bath from 2:30 to 2:50 p.m. Eastern.

08 / Be in the Room

October 26–30: The rooms moved from early-week repair attempts to a more defensive Friday tape. These are summaries of room discussions, not verified performance; coverage is midnight–6 p.m. Eastern daily, with live audio and some attachments unavailable.

IMPRO: Opening-range, VWAP and order-flow discussions gave way to short-scalp reports and late-rebound debate. Corrections and incomplete trade details remain explicit; no room-wide P&L is inferred.

MANNY: The ES roadmap revisited 7665–7675 after higher repair attempts failed. Manny emphasized higher-timeframe direction versus execution-chart entry; reported trades remain unverified.

PTG: David’s early long lean shifted with failed acceptance, balancing and downside objectives. Friday emphasized capital preservation. Presented strategies were hypothetical; simulation screenshots are not live-account returns.

PIT / HANDEL: Mentoring and statistical discussions focused on profiles, reversals and election-related questions.

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