I have been saying 7650 for over three weeks, and as of yesterday’s high, it is only 60 points away. With today being the last trading day of May and the Week 5 options expiration, 7650 isn’t out of the question.

A few things helping yesterday’s rally were crude oil (CL) popping up to 92.52 on Globex before settling at 88.90, the 30-year bonds and 10-year notes rallying, and both gold and silver having big rips. I talk to a lot of traders, and while we all have different opinions, one thing we all agree on now is that it really doesn’t matter what market it is—they are all moving like they never have before.

One guy and a good friend, Jimmy Mayo, said to me yesterday, “Don’t you remember when the ES had a 10- or 20-point range, and the bid/offer was hundreds up? Today, a 50- or 100-point move is commonplace, and the ES now trades like the NQ.” I don’t think any of this is going to change; everything is evolving.

I also told PitBull yesterday that the new elephant in the algo/HFT space is AI, and I think all three combined now make up 80% of the volume. So, if anyone asks you why this or that market just moved sharply in a 1-minute bar, it probably has something to do with some type of headline or program, and we will never know where it came from. It is, as they say, the world we live in.

By now, there should be nothing that really surprises us, nor should it in the future. One thing we know for sure is that “sell in May and walk away” didn’t work at all.

Historically, the end-of-month May expiration requires separating the session into two distinct mechanical forces: the Week 5/end-of-month (EOM) options expiration and the institutional window dressing/rebalancing flows.

The bullish case is a possible gamma squeeze. This usually carries lower open interest, but with the ES and NQ coming off 5- and 6-day winning streaks, the broader market remains in an uptrend. Market makers who are short-dated, out-of-the-money (OTM) calls are frequently forced to buy underlying index futures, like ES and NQ, to hedge their delta risk.

Additionally, there is always institutional index rebalancing and front-running on the final trading day of May, tied to preliminary moves ahead of major June index reconstructions, such as the Russell Reconstitution and MSCI rebalances. This institutional liquidity often hits the tape as distribution rather than accumulation.

What does it all mean? It means we must brace for a highly volatile, multi-directional tug-of-war between late-day options pinning and heavy institutional rebalancing flows at the closing bell.

The Intraday Verdict: A Tale of Two Sessions

Instead of a purely bullish or bearish day from bell to bell, the final trading day of May historically resolves as an intraday split:

The Strategy: The structural setup suggests respecting the morning trend if market makers are forced to chase an early bid, but keeping a sharp eye on the clock. The final hour of May is famous for sudden liquidity shifts and sharp flushes as institutional rebalancing takes over the tape.

Yes, I used AI for this, but I asked the question, and they were pretty much in line with how the last trading day of the month goes—especially when it falls on a Friday.

Our lean: If the ES gaps way up—say, into the 7620 area—I may look to sell into that rip for a quick scalp and then buy the pullbacks for the first part of the day, especially if oil is weak and the bonds and notes are higher. Alternatively, the smart play might just be to stay patient and buy the pullbacks or a lower open.

I think we all know the trend is firmly up, and the word “sell” has not fit very well in our trading toolboxes lately. It is hard to believe that on May 4, the ES low of the day was 7199.50. In just 18 sessions, that represents a massive gain of 351.50 points, or nearly +5.00% rip. They absolutely loved the earnings!

Here are today’s Claude AI ES Market Profile Levels.

VAL = Major Support

• Buyers typically defend VAL from above.

• Represents price perceived as “cheap” relative to fair value.

• Acceptance below VAL signals liquidation risk.

VAH = Major Resistance

• Sellers often defend VAH from below.

• Represents price perceived as “expensive.”

• Acceptance above VAH confirms higher value migration.

POC = Institutional Magnet

• Strongest rotational pivot.

• Price frequently returns here during balanced conditions.

• Acts as support or resistance, depending on directional acceptance.

Structural Volume Zones

High Volume Nodes (HVN)

Heavy Acceptance Areas:

• 7,552–7,560

• 7,528–7,540

These are institutional consensus zones where:

• Heavy accumulation occurred.

• Price tends to slow, rotate, or consolidate.

• Strong support/resistance develops.

Low Volume Nodes (LVN)

Thin Liquidity / Fast Auction Zones:

• 7,588–7,605

• 7,500–7,515

These areas act like vacuums:

• Price often moves rapidly through them.

• Either sharp rejection or acceleration occurs.

Single Prints / Tails

Single prints indicate:

• Aggressive institutional participation.

• Rejection of unfair prices.

• Future support/resistance references.

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Founder's Note:

PM Note

The stock market rallied to another all-time high following positive developments surrounding the Iran deal. Crude oil remained below $90, while bonds also moved higher on the session.

SPX traded within an 81 bps range and closed at 7,564 (+0.58%). VIX and VVIX also reset to the low end of the range over the past year, with VIX closing at 15.73 and VVIX at 86.03.

Today also marked a COR1M close of 8. COR1M measures the implied volatility correlation between single stocks and the index. A reading below 8 suggests increasingly aggressive single-stock call positioning. This type of setup can precede sharp mean reversion moves in the broader market. As discussed in the AM Note, mid-June could become the period of positioning shift, particularly as the potential SpaceX IPO coincides with June OPEX.

The support at 7,500 and resistance at 7,570 we mentioned in the AM Note held throughout the session. Around 10:30 a.m. ET, the 99th percentile gamma level formed near the 7,570 strike. From that point into the close, gamma exposure tied to 7570 GEX expanded from roughly $5B to nearly $50B. That large positive gamma position appeared to act as a magnet for price, with SPX gradually drifting higher toward the strike before finding resistance and fading modestly into the close.

S&P 500 HIRO finished the session with approximately $5B of positive delta, largely driven by $3.5B of 0DTE put selling.

HIRO tracks cumulative customer delta from aggressive call and put trades throughout the day.

Meanwhile, S&P equities also recorded roughly $5B of positive delta, led primarily by $4B of longer-dated call buying. The divergence in flow types aligned with what we observed in COR1M: traders remained short index volatility while expressing bullish positioning through single-stock volatility exposure.

Fixed-strike implied volatility declined modestly across the board, generally by 0.2–0.5 vol points. Notably, SPX at-the-money implied volatility for next Monday closed near 9%, which likely represents a near-term floor for implied volatility levels.

On the sector side, bullish sentiment following SNOW earnings (+36.5% post-earnings) helped ignite strength across the broader software sector (IGV+2.8%). MSFT (+3.5%), PLTR (+8.2%), and ORCL (+6.7%) — all among the top-five holdings within IGV — rallied strongly on the day.

MSFT provided a strong example of the day’s price action. The stock initially bounced from the 410 Hedge Wall during the morning session before breaking through the 420 Key Gamma Strike on robust call buying activity. Upside momentum accelerated until HIRO delta flow reached roughly $1.2B, after which flows flattened out. The call positioning performed exceptionally well intraday. For example, the MSFT June 450 calls increased from roughly $2.50 to $5.00 during the first 60 minutes after the open, representing a 100% gain.

Jeff Hirsch - Stock Trader’s Almanac

June is the Worst Month in the Midterm Election Years

June has favored NASDAQ over the last 55 years ranking sixth best with a 1.1% average gain, up 32 of 55 years (since 1971). This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. However, June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.1%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but with a 0.2% average gain. Small caps have tended to fare better in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.9% in the month since 1979, advancing 63.8% of the time.

However, in midterm years since 1950, June ranks no better than eleventh. June is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 month in midterm years. Average losses range from 1.8% by Russell 1000 to 2.1% from S&P 500 and Russell 2000. All five indexes have declined more times than they have risen in midterm year Junes.

ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7568.25. This is the key level for today’s directional bias. As long as ES remains above this level, the short-term tone stays bullish and buyers can continue to defend pullbacks.

Currently, ES is trading around 7589.50, holding above the bull/bear line and pressing into the prior high area at 7590.75. This keeps momentum constructive, but price is now testing nearby resistance. A sustained push above 7590.75 opens the door toward 7611.00, which is today’s upper range target. If ES can clear and hold above 7611.00, the next upside extension level is 7651.00. Bulls want acceptance above 7590.75 to avoid stalling near the current Globex highs.

On the downside, initial support is at 7581.75, followed by the bull/bear line at 7568.25. A break back below 7568.25 would weaken the bullish setup and shift focus toward 7553.75, then 7525.75, which is today’s lower range target. If selling expands below 7525.75, the next downside levels are 7505.75 and 7485.50.

Overall, ES remains bullish above 7568.25, but price is testing immediate resistance near 7590.75. Holding above the bull/bear line favors continued upside attempts toward 7611.00, while failure below 7568.25 would warn that the overnight strength is losing momentum.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 30205.75. This is the key level for today’s sentiment. Holding above this level keeps the short-term tone bullish and favors buying dips as long as price does not lose 30205.75.

Currently, NQ is trading around 30342.50, which places it above the bull/bear line and near the prior high at 30344.50. This area is immediate resistance. If buyers can push through and hold above 30344.50, the next upside target is 30518.25, which is today’s upper range target.

Above 30518.25, the next major resistance is 30812.50. A sustained move into that level would show stronger bullish continuation, but traders should watch for hesitation near 30518.25 first since that is the primary intraday range target.

On the downside, initial support comes in at 30307.00, followed by the bull/bear line at 30205.75. If NQ loses 30205.75 and cannot reclaim it, momentum shifts back toward neutral-to-bearish, with 30120.00 as the next downside level.

The lower range target for today is 29893.25. A break below that level would open the door toward 29763.00 and then 29599.00.

Overall, NQ remains constructive while holding above 30205.75. Bulls need acceptance above 30344.50 to target 30518.25. Bears need to push price back below 30205.75 to regain control and target 30120.00, then 29893.25.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, May 28, 2026

Thursday’s session was a constructive example of how PTG levels can frame the trading day. ES respected multiple key references overnight and during regular trading hours, giving the room useful lessons in patience, response-based trading, and the importance of staying aligned with the 3-Day Cycle.

Opening Context

• David posted the daily room links, disclaimer, and the Daily Trade Strategy.

• The main early reference was the 7540 Line in the Sand.

• Price returned to the 7540 area before the regular session, making it an important decision level for the day.

Overnight Trade Activity

• ES fulfilled the upper 7555 target overnight.

• ES also tested the lower D-Level at 7507.50.

• Both the upper and lower references produced counter-responses, showing that PTG levels were being respected early.

Morning Read

• Traders noted that buyers dried up during the morning session.

• This was a useful warning not to chase upside momentum without confirmation.

• The market required patience and a level-by-level read rather than assuming clean continuation.

Education Focus

• David emphasized the importance of mastering the PTG 3-Day Cycle.

• He shared the 3-Day Cycle video and reference page.

• The key lesson was to frame trades through cycle context, D-Levels, and the Line in the Sand.

Key Intraday Levels

• The 7540 Line in the Sand remained an important reference.

• A member noted a higher D-Level zone near 7578.25.

• The market continued to trade in relation to the mapped PTG levels.

Afternoon Development

• David noted that the bulls held bid at the D-Level zone.

• This was a positive sign that buyers were defending an important support area.

• The afternoon action reinforced the value of waiting for price response at known levels.

Positive Takeaways

• PTG levels worked well throughout the session.

• The overnight upper and lower targets both produced meaningful responses.

• Bulls defending the D-Level zone gave the room a constructive example of level-based trading.

• The session rewarded patience, preparation, and disciplined observation.

Lessons Learned

• A level touch is not enough; the key is watching how price responds.

• When buyers dry up, traders should avoid chasing and wait for confirmation.

• The Line in the Sand, D-Levels, and 3-Day Cycle remain essential tools for reading market structure.

• The best trades came from respecting context, not reacting emotionally to price movement.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, May 29, 2026

Macro Focus

• US equity futures are mixed but stable, with ES, Dow, and Nasdaq slightly positive while Russell lags.

• VIX near 15.8 points to a relatively calm volatility backdrop, though oil, rates, and risk sentiment remain headline-sensitive.

• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed renewed heat, supporting expectations for a patient Fed rather than near-term rate cuts.

• Today’s economic calendar includes Goods Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30am ET, followed by Chicago PMI at 9:45am ET.

Geopolitical

• Markets remain focused on US–Iran developments, with traders leaning toward a truce extension rather than escalation.

• Crude continues to reflect that view, with oil under pressure after a sharp May decline.

• Gold and Bitcoin are modestly higher, showing mild risk-hedging flows.

Equity Themes

• AI remains the dominant equity theme, with strong post-earnings reactions in Dell and Snowflake reinforcing enterprise compute demand.

• Salesforce beat estimates but guided cautiously, keeping some selectivity within software.

• Samsung and SK Hynix rallied sharply, though some funds reportedly faced forced selling due to exposure limits.

• Most active names include Nvidia, Nokia, Ford, and Plug Power, suggesting broad participation across AI, telecom, autos, and energy transition.

Earnings & Fed Speakers

• No major corporate earnings are scheduled for today.

• Monday morning has Trip.com Group (TCOM) tentatively scheduled.

• Fed speakers today include Jeffrey Schmid at 6:50am ET, Michelle Bowman at 9:10am ET, Anna Paulson at 9:15am ET, and Mary Daly at 12:40pm ET.

Volatility & Flow

• ES 5-day average daily range fell to 71.25 points from 81.00 points, but volatility remains elevated overall.

• No whale bias today, as overnight large-trader volume was too light to be meaningful.

• The backdrop favors tactical, catalyst-driven trading over strong directional conviction.

ES Levels

• ES continues to work around the former short-term uptrend channel top at 7576/81, which remains the key pivot.

• Holding 7576/81 as support keeps upside potential open.

• Failure to hold that area puts nearby trendline support around 7503/08 back in focus.

• Longer-term structure remains bullish, with the ES 50-day MA above the 200-day MA.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 7576/81, 7895/00

• Support: 7490/95, 7435/40, 7370/85