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Markets Shrug Off Reality — Uncertainty Be Damned, Tape Keeps Printing Highs
Danny Riley
November 06, 2025
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Our View
We all know how much the stock markets hate uncertainty, right? The answer is yes, but that hasn't affected the S&P and Nasdaq's march to new record highs. I can't say for sure, nor can anyone else, but after the government opens and the data comes back online, the Fed will be talking about another rate cut, and no one will even remember the AI bubble talk when the S&P and Nasdaq are making new highs.
The ES sold off down to 6748.50 on Globex, rallied up to a 6807.75 high at 8:45 and opened Wednesday's regular session at 6798.50. After the open, the ES rallied up to 6801.50, pulled back to 6790.00 at 9:52, and then rallied up to an early high of 6829.50 at 10:05. It pulled back to 6809.25 at 10:21, traded back up to a new high at 6831.50, pulled back to the 6814 level at 11:20, and then rallied all the way up to 6857.75 as more talk about ending the government shutdown widened.
After the high, the ES pulled back to 6848.50, flatlined, retested the high at 6857.75, and hung at the 6853 level or in a 4-point range for the last hour and a half. At 3:21, the late-day sell showed up, pushing the ES down to the 6836.00 area. It traded 6838.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $600 million to sell, sold off down to 6820.25, and traded 6824.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After the cash close, the ES rallied back up to 6831.00 at 4:05, sold off down to 6819.75 at 6:20, started to drift up to 6829.75, and settled at 6825.25, up 23.50 points or +0.35%.
The NQ settled at 25,746.25, up 171 points or +0.67%, while the ZBZ25 (bond futures) settled at 116.14, down 31 points or -0.83% because of a stronger-than-expected ADP number and the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement, announced at 11:00, hinted at potential increases in coupon issuance for longer maturities to fund deficits. The bonds were on the upswing into Oct 22 when they traded above 119.20, but as of yesterday's close, the ZBZ25 traded down to 116.11 and settled at 116.14. This put the bond futures down 5 out of the last 6 sessions and now back to the level it was at on 9/18.
In the end, after all the huffing and puffing, the ES and NQ rocked higher. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, two things occurred: the first part is the longs bailed, and after the Globex low, the selling dried up. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was steady at 1.404 million contracts traded.
The markets have wobbled for the last few weeks, but did they really go anywhere? Yesterday, the ES settled at 6825.25, and on 10/24, 9 days ago, the ES settled at 6827.00. The NQ settled at 25,882.75 on 10/30, and it settled at 25,746.25 yesterday. Yes, the index markets have sold off, but there were no consecutive down days. From 11/03, the NQ has been up a day, down a day. I told my chat early in the day that the ES would not revisit the Globex low at 6748.50, and it didn’t.
After a drop and some sideways-to-down price action, the ES acted better than the NQ. But I pointed out that the NQ’s price action had changed from Tuesday's “sell every bounce” to buyers stepping in — and when the NQ started taking off, the ES blasted higher.
So, where does that leave us? I am still bullish, but I'm not sure it's crystal clear yet. The bond weakness and Nvidia (NVDA) acted really weak late yesterday. Let’s just face it — people like to cry wolf. Sometimes they are right, but most of the time they’re wrong.
Our View
I’m not always right about some of my topics, but I was spot on about the NY mayoral race and what would happen if Mamdani got elected — Florida real estate would pop again. The first part of this is that people have still been moving here despite the home sales slowdown and high interest rates, and it has nothing to do with the mayoral race in NY. But the recent jump in home sales is clearly related to the race.
Mamdani’s shock NYC mayoral win on Tuesday has sparked a mass exodus to Florida, driven by fears of socialist policies, tax hikes, and anti-business moves. Miami is seeing $100M+ in NY buyer deals, surging inquiries, and corporate shifts to the “new Wall Street,” with DeSantis cheering the influx. This turbocharges an ongoing trend: 125K+ New Yorkers have already relocated for lower taxes and a pro-growth climate. I don’t think the exodus will be as big as the 2020 COVID lockdown rush, but I already know buyers are snapping up homes in Delray at the highest rate in over the last 2 to 3 years — and I don’t think it’s going to stop.
I’ll finish this by saying I have two brand-new homes going up in one of the hottest areas of Delray, if anyone is looking, that will be completed at the end of November.
MiM
Wednesday’s MOC session opened heavy on the sell side, and although some mid-session rotation developed, sellers dominated the tape into the close. The total market imbalance showed -$630 million to sell, led primarily by NYSE at -$731 million, while the Nasdaq stood out with a +$111 million buy. The imbalance leaned 59% to sell overall, reflecting institutional distribution rather than broad panic.
The first 15:50 print opened nearly flat at +$11M but quickly flipped to -$630M by 15:51, setting the tone. Through 15:52–15:55, both buy and sell volumes climbed above $3.7B, with the net remaining negative. A brief rally in buy programs at 15:55 lifted the total to +$782M, but selling pressure soon reasserted itself. By 16:00, the session closed at -$232M, confirming persistent sell interest across most sectors.
Sector rotation showed a mix of risk-off and selective accumulation. Technology (-$836M) and Financial Services (-$265M) led the selling, consistent with the overall defensive tone. However, Consumer Cyclical (+$671M) and Communication Services (+$287M) sectors attracted notable buy flows, hinting at opportunistic reallocation within growth equities.
Notable symbols:
Buy-side leaders: AAPL (+$662.6M), AMZN (+$447.1M), and TSLA (+$280.5M) drew significant inflows, signaling targeted tech and consumer accumulation.
Sell-side leaders: NVDA (-$960.9M), LRCX (-$88.9M), and BAC (-$70.0M) showed concentrated institutional exits.
Sector standouts: Healthcare (-$217M) and Energy (-$132M) both leaned sharply negative, while Utilities (-$76M) remained weak but rotational.
The S&P 500 closed with -$349M to sell (lean -52.5%), while Nasdaq’s +51% buy skew showed clear divergence — evidence of selective dip-buying in growth and AI names. Overall, the session reflected a broad but orderly sell program, punctuated by pockets of rotation rather than wholesale liquidation.
Guest Posts:
Dan @ GTC Traders
DIAGEO PLC (DEO): The Plan … Executed
So …
A few weeks ago, we laid out a plan for Diageo PLC (DEO) ... our problem child in the "Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core" Program of the GTC Sample Portfolio. How did that turn out? Well ... let's rewind a bit.
On October 28th. I had been wrestling with a brutal bout of insomnia ... barely sleeping a wink in 48 hours. I tossed. I turned. Nothing I tried seemed to get me to sleep.
By the time 8:30 AM EST rolled around on the 29th, that time of the morning when I am usually grabbing my cup of coffee and sitting down to the desk here in Appalachia to look through markets, of course … THEN … then the fatigue proceeds to hit me like a NASCAR racer hitting the wall at 230 MPH. I mumbled ( typed a message while half dead ) to premium members that I was going off to bed ... that the portfolio looked ok … and I would try to be around for the afternoon.
I wasn’t around for the afternoon.
I slept through all of it that day. The Fed announcement. The presser. Everything. And … we missed Diageo (PLC) (DEO) sliding through our key price. Which, as an aside, is fine. I design my systems to be robust, and I can tell you for a verifiable fact … that executing this plan a few hours late is not the end of the world, or matter much in terms of performance. I have specifically designed the Trading Programs to be that robust. In fact, yet again, we posted another profitable month last month in the Program …
So those few weeks ago we had mentioned that of the 18 ( perhaps 19, depending on how you count it ) assets in our Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core DIAGEO (DEO) was our clear problem child. No, not because of the slide in the asset’s price, although that has been pretty spectacular to witness.
The Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core Program is built to not only withstand slides in an assets price? But to capitalize from them, and use such slides to average in later.
So no, it’s not simply the slide in price.
Diageo PLC (DEO) has had significant problems in major markets like the US and China. Profits have tanked by twenty eight percent. Then there are tariffs and bad bets on premium booze.
Ok, other companies have problems. What is the problem?
What is the purpose of an Equity Fixed Income account?
I N C O M E
The dividend is in trouble. The dividend, is the income. With the drop in earnings, the company has given almost every penny it earned, to the dividend, leaving little else for the company itself. Such that the dividend payout ratio is north of 92%. And the income, is the point of this account.
Therefore … we witnessed DIAGEO PLC (DEO) plunge below that $92.50 region we were looking at. It broke that area. We were looking for a little more conviction in the drop below $92.50, but as I sat and thought about it, that jump higher in the dividend payout ratio sort of ‘sealed the deal’.
So we went ahead, and pulled the trigger.
Near the open of cash equities the next day, we pulled the trigger. Selling to exit DIAGEO (DEO) to in the GTC Sample Portfolio. That opened up a slot that we will need to fill for the Income Producing asset of 3% of the original account capital.
So, after the exit of Diageo PLC (DEO) position, and since we still had two other income producing assets that we have to find a way in to purchase of the 18 assets (namely Microsoft (MSFT) and CBOE). We took 9% of the original capital of the account ( 3% * 3 Positions ) … and purchase 9% worth of the ETF … GSY (Invesco’s Ulta-short Duration ETF) in order to mimic some discount to yield, and for that cash to be earning something until we can get those slots filled.
So at the end of it, Diageo PLC (DEO) is out of the account. We still have yet to find a way to get Microsoft (MSFT) into the account. As well as CBOE. Those three positions are empty, but have the ETF … GSY … earning some yield, until such time that we can replace GSY with good entries into those remaining three assets. And the account continues to make brand new highs, and most importantly, the income ... the objective of this program ... is safe.
Until next time, stay safe ... and trade well ...
Technical Edge
Fair Values for November 6, 2025
S&P: 26.8
NQ: 119.37
Dow: 117.6
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, November 5, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 92 / 80
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 118 / 212
• NYSE TRIN: 1.13
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.36
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, October 31, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 32% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 35% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 293 / 181
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 700 / 373
• NYSE TRIN: 0.53
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.42
S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
Trading Room News:
PTG Room Summary – Wednesday, November 5, 2025
Yesterday’s trading in the PTG room, led by David Dube (PTGDavid), was marked by precision technical setups, disciplined execution, and a strong follow-through on key trade plans—especially around the “trap-city” scenario that played out as forecasted.
Positive Trade Highlights
Early Precision:
The day started with a direct hit on the 6749 Money Box overnight, which had been mapped out in advance. David highlighted this as a textbook example of levels working to the tick: “Precision Hit… Go Figure.”
PTGDavid marked 6785 as the “Line in the Sand”—a critical level that helped define bull/bear scenarios. Price reactions around this level confirmed its importance throughout the day.
Manny’s Maverick Move:
Manny took a shot at the Continuation Long from the 6805–6809 zone, initially taking a -4 pt loss after a failed retest.
He didn’t hesitate to get back in with a better fill—earning the nickname “Maverick” from PTGDavid. The second entry was well-timed, resulting in a +10, +15 point win, hitting targets into the 6815+ zone.
The trade was supported by a classic “Trap-City” play, where a failed bear breakdown led to a strong squeeze rally. PTGDavid’s pre-market commentary laid out this scenario exactly.
Afternoon Resistance Sell:
Later in the day, Manny executed a textbook Resistance Sell from the 6845–6849 zone. It wasn't a strong mover at first, but it did tag the first target at +5 pts.
Just when it seemed lackluster, the move accelerated late, allowing Manny to close with a +20 pt winner—a great example of sticking to the plan and letting the trade work.
Lessons Learned
Discipline Pays:
Manny’s decision to exit his first failed long gracefully, then re-enter with better context, exemplifies professional-level trade management. Knowing when to exit and when to re-enter is key.
Plan > Emotion:
The day reinforced the importance of trusting the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) and pre-market prep. David and Manny both emphasized that setups, even if they “suck” in the moment, have statistical edge when executed correctly.
Trap-City Awareness:
A major takeaway was David’s "Trap-City" alert—where a bear trap near 6785 flipped the market upward. Understanding how short squeezes develop became a central theme, validated by price action.
Technical Alignment:
Levels like 6749, 6785, and 6824 played pivotal roles, proving the value of HTF (higher time frame) zones, Money Boxes, and volume triggers.
Challenges
Software Issues Early On: Chart-sharing server issues briefly affected visibility at the open, but the room adapted quickly.
Choppy Afternoon: The market consolidated in a tighter range (6815–6830), and PTGDavid noted that the afternoon session was “just torture.” Yet the team remained focused.
Closing Notes
The day ended with a well-timed MOC sell imbalance of $700M and a late-day win for Manny with a bang (“KABOOM!! +20pts”).
David closed out the day with praise: “Well Played Maverick.”
Summary:
A strong day in the PTG room that demonstrated the power of planning, precision levels, and psychological resilience. “Trap-City” became reality, and the room capitalized. Traders who stayed disciplined and trusted the process walked away with solid wins and key insights for future setups.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, November 6, 2025
Macro & Policy Highlights:
SCOTUS Tariff Skepticism: Both liberal and conservative justices expressed doubts about Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. A ruling against could have massive implications for global trade, U.S. spending, and deficit. Complexity of refunding past tariffs was noted as a concern.
Flight Reductions Amid Shutdown: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy ordered a 10% flight cut at 40 major airports due to safety concerns as the government shutdown hits a 36-day record. Airlines face a 36-hour compliance deadline.
Corporate & Market Movers:
Tesla Pay Battle: Elon Musk’s proposed trillion-dollar compensation will be debated at today’s 4:00pm annual meeting. Musk insists on at least 25% control to stay committed. Multiple large investors oppose the package.
AI & Geopolitics: Nvidia CEO Huang warned the U.S. risks falling behind China in AI if policy continues excluding Chinese developers from using Nvidia chips. Advocates engagement over restriction.
Google-Apple AI Deal: Google near finalizing a $1B/year deal to power Siri with its 1.2T-parameter AI model. Apple sees this as a bridge while developing its own AI.
Earnings Watch:
Premarket: AZN, COP, DD, USFD, WBD, AFRM, APD, DDOG, GMAB, PODD, PH, RL, ROK, TPR, TRP, VST, among others.
After-Hours: ABNB, DKNG, EXPE, HUBS, JOBY, MNST, TTWO, TTD, WYNN, and more.
Friday AM: CEG, DUK, ENB.
Market Conditions:
Volatility Watch: ES 5-day average range rises again to 89 pts. Whale bias stays bearish heading into U.S. session on light-moderate volume.
Key ES Levels: TL Resistance: 6894/99s, 7068/73s, 7087/92s. TL Support: 6733/38s. MA50 remains loose support. Market remains within ST uptrend channel.
