Jobs, OPEX and Labor Day: Don’t Fight a Thin Tape

September 04, 2026

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Today is the August jobs report and the week 1 Friday OPEX. My feeling is that not everyone has returned from their August vacations, AAA estimates that 40 to 45 million will travel at least 42 miles for the Labor Day three-day weekend, and TSA expects to screen more than 17 million passengers from Thursday, Sept. 3 through Wednesday, Sept. 9.

Can you say thin to win?

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, research on S&P 500 pre-holiday returns found that the Labor Day pre-holiday effect was very strong before 1987 but largely disappeared afterward.

Stock Trader’s Almanac similarly says the exceptionally strong pre-Labor Day pattern of the 1950s–1970s has weakened substantially in the modern market but has a bullish bias of roughly 60/40, but not a high-conviction seasonal trade.

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

Futures are up 10 bps ahead of NFP.

0DTE strike are light pre-NFP, and so resistance is at 7,800 with support at 7,700. We've raised the Risk Pivot to 7,690.

With SPX back near ATHs we see SPX vols nearing recent lows, but we think there is a bit more to squeeze which could push stocks higher - if NFP is a non-event. For example, Tuesday's SPX IV, post the holiday, is at a 7.6% and we'd anticipate that declining into the 6's post-NFP. Because of Wed CPI we don't think the >=Wed vols will sink a whole lot more, but down is the trend.

The single stock chase is apparently underway. You can see this in the image below, where single stocks (orange dots) have concentrated to call skews (left side) and the vol appears to be shifting higher (more right on the chart vs Monday). This is a bullish construct as is the vol crunch.

Below is total market call volume, which shows the largest call volume in a month, backing the idea that call skew is demand driven.

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The ES traded in a 7661.25 to 7706.25 Globex trading range and traded 7704.25, up 26 points or +0.24%, on Thursday's regular session open.

After the open, the ES rallied 22.25 points up to 7726.50, sold off down to 7717.00, rallied up to a lower high at 7722.00, traded down to 7700.50 at 10:00, rallied 59.00 points up to 7759.50 at 12:00, pulled back to 7748.00 at 12:15, and rallied up to 7766.50 at 2:15.

The ES sold off 10.00 points down to 7756.50 at 3:48 and traded 7757.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.3 billion to buy, and traded 7756.25 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7748.00 at 4:52 and settled at 7749.25, up 72.75 points or +0.95%. The NQ settled at 29,502.25, up 316 points or +1.08%; the YM settled at 53,720, down 25 points or -0.05%; and the RTY settled at 2967.30, up 8.5 points or +0.29% on the day.

In the end

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump privately discussed with senior aides whether to declare the Iran war over and has indicated that he favors an emphasis from military operations toward sustained economic pressure.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was buy every pullback. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.392 million contracts traded.

I can't and won’t be doing a big OP today. I have totally run out of gas and am looking forward to the 3-day Labor Day holiday. I do have to admit that I really like digging into things. This week I put out the September stats and wrote about the Japanese Nikkei when I was on the floor and compared it to 2025 to the current.

Market-On-Close Recap

The MOC opened with an imbalance of $1.610B to buy, with $3.824B of buy orders against $2.214B of sells. The dollar lean was +63.3%, while the symbol lean was +55.4%, showing a meaningful buy program but still a fairly rotational mix underneath the headline number.

Buying accelerated into 15:55, when the net imbalance peaked at $2.799B. Buy orders reached $4.902B versus $2.103B for sale, producing a +70.0% dollar lean. That crossed the 66% threshold and represented the clearest wholesale buy signal of the session. The imbalance then faded to $1.062B at 15:56 before rebuilding to $1.218B at 15:59 with a still-notable +66.6% dollar lean. By 16:00, however, the net imbalance had collapsed to just $46.0M, with the dollar lean at +51.8% — essentially rotational — while the symbol lean flipped to -55.1%.

Technology led the sector buying with a $697.7M net imbalance and a strong +70.6% dollar lean. Health Care added $322.4M at +78.9%, Real Estate $164.3M at +83.4%, Consumer Staples $169.5M at +70.1%, Energy $101.6M at +69.4%, and Utilities $83.0M at +68.8%. Materials also showed strong +78.1% buying. Communication Services was the major exception, posting a $244.3M sell imbalance with a -76.9% lean.

The largest buy-side symbols included MSTR $230.1M, INTC $213.1M, AAPL $160.7M, SNDK $125.9M, STX $96.7M, and KO $89.7M. Selling was concentrated in TSLA $174.3M, META $160.1M, NVDA $118.6M, MSFT $95.9M, GOOGL $80.8M, and COIN $69.0M. Overall, the MOC showed a strong institutional buy program that peaked late, but much of that pressure was unwound into the final print.

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ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7738.50. ES is currently trading around 7762.50, keeping the short-term bias bullish while price holds above this key pivot. Buyers want to see 7738.50 defended on any pullback to maintain upside momentum.

Immediate resistance comes in at 7766.50. A clean break and hold above that level opens the door to 7791.75, today’s upper range target. If momentum expands through 7791.75, the next major resistance is 7842.00.

On the downside, initial support is 7754.75, followed by the bull/bear line at 7738.50. A sustained break below 7738.50 would weaken the bullish setup and shift attention toward 7685.00, today’s lower range target. Below there, additional support comes in at 7673.50, 7661.25, and 7634.75.

Overall, the ES remains bullish above 7738.50. Holding above 7754.75 keeps buyers in control and favors a push through 7766.50 toward 7791.75. Losing 7738.50 would signal a meaningful change in intraday momentum and increase the odds of a move back toward the lower end of today’s range.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 29446.75. NQ is trading well above this key pivot around 29686.25, keeping the near-term bias bullish as long as price continues to hold above 29446.75.

The first upside objective is 29725.00, today’s upper range target. A clean break and hold above 29725.00 would open the door to 29987.00 as the next major resistance. Above that, the chart extends toward the 30000.00 area and 30018.25.

On pullbacks, initial support comes in at 29584.25, followed by 29524.75. These are important levels for bulls to defend after the strong overnight advance. Below them, 29446.75 becomes the critical support and bull/bear line, with additional support immediately underneath at 29430.75.

The lower range target for today is 29168.50. A sustained break below 29446.75 would weaken the bullish setup and increase the odds of a deeper retracement toward 29168.50. Below the lower range target, additional support is visible at 29075.00 and 28906.50.

Overall, NQ remains bullish above 29446.75. The immediate battle is 29725.00: acceptance above it favors continuation toward 29987.00, while rejection there could produce a pullback toward 29584.25 and 29524.75 before the bull/bear line becomes the key decision point.

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, September 4, 2026

  • NYSE Breadth: 66% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 68% Upside Volume

  • Total Breadth: 67% Upside Volume

  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 60% Advance

  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 63% Advance

  • Total Advance/Decline: 62% Advance

  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 77 / 87

  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 155 / 160

  • NYSE TRIN: 0.78

  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.81

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, August 28, 2026

  • NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume

  • Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume

  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 45% Advance

  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 40% Advance

  • Total Advance/Decline: 42% Advance

  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 158 / 150

  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 420 / 371

  • NYSE TRIN: 0.87

  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.55

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Closed for the week

DTG Room Preview – Friday, September 4, 2026

Market setup

  • US futures are firm ahead of the August Jobs Report at 8:30am ET.

  • Traders are focused on how the data fits into Fed Chair Devin Warsh’s new emphasis on broader labor-market slack rather than headline payrolls alone.

  • Liquidity is thinning into the three-day Labor Day weekend, increasing the risk of an outsized reaction to any surprise in payrolls, wages, or unemployment.

  • Yields remain the key macro driver, with rate-sensitive tech particularly exposed.

Macro and geopolitical risks

  • Geopolitical risk remains elevated around the Strait of Hormuz, where uncertainty over shipping flows could quickly impact crude and broader risk sentiment.

  • Rising US diesel prices are keeping inflation concerns alive despite strength in gold.

  • Any renewed move higher in fuel costs could pressure consumer-sensitive sectors and complicate the Fed rate outlook.

  • Fed, Treasury, geopolitical, and President Trump headlines remain potential volatility catalysts.

Corporate headlines

  • HPE continues to highlight exceptional AI demand, reinforcing strength in enterprise AI infrastructure spending.

  • OpenAI’s $1B cyber-defense commitment adds another supportive theme for AI infrastructure and security.

  • Disney, Google, and Volkswagen remain in focus due to regulatory and restructuring headlines.

  • No major earnings of interest are scheduled today.

ES technical picture

  • ES volatility continues to build, with the 5-day average daily range rising to 77 points.

  • ES was rejected Wednesday at the top of its short-term downtrend channel.

  • Bulls need to clear 7665/60 to open the door toward longer-term trendline resistance at 7861/66.

  • The 50-day MA at 7623.25 remains loose support below.

  • Bears have considerably more room to work on the downside from a trendline perspective.

Key ES levels

  • Resistance: 7665/60, 7861/66

  • Support: 7615/12, 7602/97, 7480/85, 7295/90, 7095/90

Trading outlook

  • No meaningful whale bias overnight due to light large-trader volume.

  • Expect jobs-driven volatility around the 8:30am ET release.

  • Volatility may calm later in the session as markets head into the three-day Labor Day weekend.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!!

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