To think that I didn't see this coming after the open is wrong:

IMPRO:Dboy:[9:37:25 AM]: ES will trade 7440 today

IMPRO:Dboy:[9:45:50 AM]: I'm telling u they are going up

IMPRO:Dboy:[9:45:58 AM]: 7440-7450

And around 10:36, I posted this on Twitter. At the time, the futures were trading around 7320.50:

@MrTopStep · 10h @BarronTrump

Long 1000 $ES

LONG 1000 $NQ SHORT 1000 $CL

What am I missing? What bothers me is that I knew after the 9-day rally the market could fall, but I, like many people, got concerned that the sell-off could get deeper.

Right now it's 8:35 p.m., and the ES just traded up to 7421.75. That's 189.50 points off yesterday's low.

I am sure I am not the only one, but I'm tired. I had my best trading day of the year, and I am going to go slow today.

There is talk about the IPO being put off until 2:30 p.m. I doubt that will happen, but it could suppress volatility on the first trading day of SpaceX, which sold $75 billion worth of shares and is set to be the largest IPO in history. Musk's stake at $690 billion, when combined with TSLA and other holdings, could make him the world's first trillionaire.

As I have always said, I'm happy when people make money and I know Musk is smart, but this just doesn't seem right.

Here is a story from The Wall Street Journal titled "What We Know About the SpaceV IPO"

Elon Musk’s SpaceX on Thursday staged the largest public offering ever, selling $75 billion worth of shares in one fell swoop. Here are key details:

Where did the shares price? Musk offered investors a “take-it-or-leave-it” price of $135 a share, avoiding the usual approach of providing a price range and refining it based on investor feedback.

What's happening today? SpaceX’s order book closed Wednesday, and its bankers have been deciding how to allocate the shares ahead of the start of trading Friday.

Who is buying the shares? BlackRock put in an order to buy at least $5 billion worth of SpaceX shares, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal, and other large asset managers submitted similarly eye-popping orders.

Individual investors requested well over $70 billion worth of SpaceX shares, the people familiar with the matter said. The company also received orders from sovereign-wealth funds and family offices.

How can I follow the share price? Once shares open for trading on the Nasdaq, likely sometime Friday afternoon, you can check them here under the ticker SPCX.

How will the shares trade? It's a trillion-dollar question. At the moment, Polymarket odds suggest most think shares will rise from the $135 offering price.

Our lean: If anything, we can expect another volatile trading day, and the Monday after the IPO is the start of the June rollover. As I have always said, it takes days and weeks to knock the ES down and only one to bring it back, and today will be a test of that trading rule.

While the markets open at 9:30 ET, IPOs never start right at the open, and the Nasdaq requires a few hours to run its "opening cross" process. During this window, market makers manually compile, balance, and clear massive amounts of buy and sell interest to discover the stock's true opening market price.

Due to the enormous size of the IPO, it could take longer than normal.

Is the sell-off over? I don't think so, and big IPOs do not provide liquidity; it takes it away from the existing secondary, or the current stocks that are trading.

Additionally, when mega-cap stocks like SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic come to market with valuations ranging from $800 billion to $1 trillion, institutional asset managers and hedge funds can’t just buy them with spare change. They have to actively free up billions of dollars in capital to buy into the primary offering.

To do that, they are forced to sell existing winners to raise cash, and because these upcoming IPOs are massive AI and technology disruptors, the sector that gets targeted for liquidity extraction is almost always mega-cap tech, the Nasdaq/NQ.

The funds don't sell defensive utilities to buy OpenAI; they sell Apple, Nvidia, Micron, or AMD, which creates an immediate structural supply-demand imbalance where the existing tech leaders face an aggressive wave of program selling simply because they are acting as the funding source for the new listings.

Honestly, I don't know how this is going to end up, but I don't think it's a good idea to buy into the early rallies. I think it will be a good time to go slow and let the day unfold.

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

PM Note

The stock market rebounded after President Trump canceled planned strikes against Iran and stated that a deal with Iran was nearing completion.

SPX traded within a 210 bps intraday range and closed at 7,394 (+1.8%), above our Risk Pivot at 7,390. It was also notable that the Hedge Wall at 7,415 acted as resistance throughout the session.

QQQ and IWM both showed relative strength. QQQ closed at 717 (+3.4%), above its Hedge Wall at 715. IWM closed at 290 (+3.0%), finishing directly at its Hedge Wall level.

The VIX declined by 3 points and closed at 19.4 (-13%), while VVIX slipped to 100 (-7%) after touching its highest level since April 8.

As we noted in the AM Note, 7,300 gamma level is the key to watch for the day:

“The dividing line is clear: 7,300. Below that level market makers have negative gamma, and we would anticipate an acceleration of downside if that level is re-broken.”

SPX HIRO registered nearly +$6 billion of cumulative delta on the day, reflecting strong bullish options flow following headlines regarding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement.

S&P Equities HIRO also showed a substantial +$4 billion of cumulative delta. Both index and equity flows were dominated by longer-dated call buying, suggesting sustained bullish positioning.

HIRO tracks cumulative customer delta from aggressive call and put transactions and is often used to gauge directional options flow and potential dealer hedging impacts.

Fixed Strike Volatility declined alongside the rally in spot prices, with June expiration implied volatilities falling by approximately 0.6–1.0 volatility points on the session.

This decline in implied volatility may have contributed to supportive vanna-induced hedging flows, as lower volatility can reduce dealer hedge requirements and provide an additional tailwind for equities.

SPX at-the-money implied volatility closed at 22.6%, implying an expected daily move of approximately 140 bps tomorrow.

Tomorrow marks the expected launch of the SpaceX IPO (SPCX). With the company reportedly targeting a valuation near $1.8 trillion, the event could draw significant investor attention and potentially contribute to elevated volatility heading into next week's FOMC meeting and June OPEX.

Notable flow of the day:

DRAM: A trader sold approximately 35,000 June $55 puts between $1.54 and $1.67, potentially taking profits on a put position established earlier in the week at higher premium levels.

The ETF gained 8.8% today and closed at 65. The upside level to watch is Call Wall at 70.

ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7368.00. This is the key level for today. As long as ES remains above 7368.00, the short-term tone stays bullish and buyers have control on pullbacks.

Currently, ES is trading around 7434.50, holding above the bull/bear line and above prior resistance near 7420.00. That keeps upside momentum intact. The next resistance is 7455.25, followed by 7487.25, which is today’s upper range target. A sustained move above 7487.25 could open the door toward 7599.50, with 7621.50 as the next major upside reference.

On the downside, initial support comes in at 7420.00. If that fails, watch 7396.00 and then the bull/bear line at 7368.00. A break below 7368.00 would weaken the bullish setup and could shift the focus lower toward 7259.25 and 7248.75, today’s lower range target.

Additional downside support sits at 7232.25, then 7210.25, with deeper support at 7136.50. Bulls want to defend 7368.00 on any pullback. Bears need to push ES back below that level to regain control.

Overall, ES remains bullish above 7368.00, with 7455.25 and 7487.25 as the immediate upside targets. The key risk for bulls is a failed move back under 7420.00, followed by a loss of 7368.00.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 29240.75. This is the key level for today’s sentiment. As long as NQ remains above 29240.75, the short-term tone stays bullish and dips into support can be watched for potential buying opportunities.

Currently, NQ is trading around 29620.50, holding above the bull/bear line and above prior reference levels at 29464.75 and 29544.25. This shows strength in the current Globex session. If price continues to hold above 29544.25, the next upside target is 30033.00, which is today’s upper range target.

Above 30033.00, the next major resistance comes in at 30779.00. Bulls would need a sustained move through 30033.00 to open the door toward that higher resistance zone.

On the downside, first support is near 29544.25, followed by 29464.75. A break below those levels would bring the bull/bear line at 29240.75 back into focus. If NQ loses 29240.75 and fails to reclaim it, momentum could shift bearish and target 29176.75, then 28448.50, which is today’s lower range target.

Below 28448.50, additional downside support comes in at 28265.75, then 27702.75 and 27608.50.

Overall, NQ remains bullish above 29240.75. The main upside target is 30033.00, while a failure back below 29240.75 would warn that sellers are regaining control and could pressure price toward 28448.50.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, June 11, 2026

Thursday’s PTG session was a strong Cycle Day 2 example, with David emphasizing how the D-Level matched with the Cycle Violation Level acted as the launchpad for the rally. The day featured a clean open range breakout, a long-lean opportunity, normal Cycle Day 2 rhythm, and a late-session squeeze that fulfilled and exceeded the key cycle target.

Cycle Day 2 Rally Structure

• David opened the session by highlighting the precision of the D-Level + Cycle Violation Level alignment.

• That area served as the launchpad for the cycle rally.

• The room started with some chart and audio checks, but the trading framework remained clear.

• David later confirmed that Cycle Day 2 rhythms were unfolding normally.

• The day ultimately developed into a strong cycle continuation and target-fulfillment session.

Morning Trade Development

• David called a long lean around 9:53 AM.

• The long lean followed a breakout of the Open Range.

• Bulls still needed to clear and convert the 7340 handle.

• When price action became less decisive, David shifted back to a neutral stance.

• This showed good discipline: lean with the structure, but do not stay biased when confirmation weakens.

Key Trade Levels and References

• D-Level + Cycle Violation Level: Major rally launchpad.

• Open Range breakout: Triggered the long-lean framework.

• 7340 handle: Key level bulls needed to clear and convert.

• 7224.75 D-Level: Confirmed by David late in the session.

• 7394.36 cycle target: Fulfilled and exceeded.

• MOC Buy Imbalance: Grew from $1.4B to $5B into the close.

Positive Trade Highlights

• The best trade opportunity came from recognizing the D-Level/Cycle Violation Level confluence.

• The open range breakout gave the room a clear upside framework.

• The market fulfilled the core cycle targets after the afternoon news-driven move.

• David later identified a closing squeeze play.

• The cycle target at 7394.36 was not only achieved but exceeded.

• David called it another “kick-arse 3 Day Cycle.”

Lessons Learned

• Strong trade location often comes from confluence, especially when D-Levels and Cycle Violation Levels align.

• Open Range breakouts can provide clean directional structure when supported by cycle context.

• Bulls needed to prove strength by clearing and converting key handles, especially 7340.

• Staying flexible matters: David moved from long lean back to neutral when conditions called for it.

• Clean chart settings and reliable data are essential for accurate execution.

• News can accelerate a move, but the cycle framework had already provided the roadmap.

• The late-day MOC imbalance helped support the closing squeeze dynamic.

Bottom Line

• Thursday was a successful Cycle Day 2 session.

• The strongest setup came from the D-Level/Cycle Violation Level launchpad.

• The long lean after the Open Range breakout was the key positive trade framework.

• The session finished with a strong closing squeeze and the 7394.36 cycle target fulfilled and exceeded.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, June 12, 2026

Market Tone

• US futures are firmer despite renewed US strikes on Iran.

• Markets are leaning toward de-escalation after Trump said an Iran deal is “close.”

• Risk sentiment improved, the VIX dropped sharply, and the dollar steadied.

• Oil remains calm despite Middle East headlines, suggesting traders are not yet pricing a major supply shock.

Geopolitical Risk

• Cross-asset calm remains fragile.

• Any credible Hormuz or shipping disruption would likely trigger a volatility shock across energy, FX, and index futures.

• UK economic weakness adds a global-growth concern as trade and energy costs feel pressure from the conflict.

Macro / Fed

• Wholesale inflation surged 6.5%, reinforcing sticky inflation concerns after CPI hit a 3-year high.

• The inflation backdrop keeps the Fed restrictive and pushes rate-cut expectations further out.

• Higher inflation plus geopolitical uncertainty creates a fragile setup for equities.

Consumer / Sector Tone

• Consumer spending continues shifting toward lower-ticket discretionary purchases.

• This points to defensive consumer behavior rather than broad cyclical strength.

• Retail flows may favor discount and quick-service names.

Tech / Speculative Flows

• SpaceX IPO headlines are supporting speculative sentiment.

• Talk of a $135/share offering and bullish analyst targets is fueling “next Musk trade” interest.

• Traders are watching for potential rotation out of Tesla if IPO pricing firms up.

Calendar

• No notable earnings today.

• Main economic focus: 8:30am ET PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims.

ES Technicals

• Volatility remains very elevated.

• The 5-day average daily range rose to 188.75 points from 161.25.

• No whale bias today due to light overnight large-trader volume.

• ES bounced strongly from the 50-day MA at 7273.25, which remains loose support.

• Former short-term downtrend channel top at 7270/60 now becomes potential support.

• Key resistance sits near the downtrend line at 7435/30.

Key ES Levels

• Resistance: 7435/30, 7750/60

• Support: 7270/60, 6940/30