Holiday-Shortened Week Should Bring Lower Volume

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Our View

The shortened Memorial Day holiday trading week has a mix of seven Fed speakers and ten economic reports. Despite the Fed backing off lowering rates, the markets have powered higher with the S&P on track for its best May since the 2009 credit crisis. 

The Nasdaq made a new all-time contract high on Friday and both the NQ and the ES closed higher for their 5th straight week while the YM snapped a five-week winning streak. 

The selloff has not changed my opinion very much. After a let down on Thursday, the ES recouped nearly 50% of the decline. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac the day after Memorial day has the Dow up 23 of the last 28 occasions, but down 7 of the last 9. The week after Memorial Day has the Dow down 16 of the last 28, but Thursday looks like a strong up day. 

Late on Friday, Goldman Sachs' economics team pushed back its call for the first Fed cut from July to September, but said the "timing of the first cut remains a difficult question." I still say it's a long shot that there are any rate cuts in 2024.