- The Opening Print
- Posts
- Higher Stock Prices and Lower Rates?
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
Our View
I like the fact that the markets have rallied so much, but a lot of recent bullishness came from the public jumping on the “6 rate-cuts bandwagon” — we all know that's not going to happen.
Like I have said before, I bet there are no rate hikes in the first quarter and if things heat up, it may take even longer. Current odds are about 60/40 favoring “no cut” in the March meeting.
The other part is, what if the Fed does start cutting and the markets start selling off?
I think that is what happens when you reverse interest rates. While my longer timeframe view for 2024 is for higher prices — and most of the stats say the same thing — I don't think the S&P just goes higher and higher without any pullbacks or selloffs.
I get hundreds of bank reports sent to me and the ones I like to look at most are Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan. I am not avoiding critiquing the newsletter, but I think it's better that you read it yourself, and form your own opinion:
My guess is the Fed lowers but in a much more guided way.