Hanging on

Polaris Trading Group

S&P 500 (ES)

****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings

We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos

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Transition: Cycle Day 3 → Cycle Day 1

Reset…Reload…Re-engage.

CD3 CYCLE is a distant bragging-rights memory now as it fades into the rearview mirror.

Inventory clears.
Weak hands get rinsed.
Late shorts exhale like they just dodged traffic.
Late longs quietly Google “career alternatives.”

And just like that —

Cue the bell.

Brand. New. Cycle Day 1.

This is not continuation energy. This is foundation-pouring, blueprint-drawing, steel-beam-installing energy.

Cycle Day 1 doesn’t chase.
Cycle Day 1 builds.

It’s mechanical. It’s calculated. It tests Average Decline Levels with surgical intent. It forces emotional traders to show their cards early — and usually fold by noon.

This is where professionals:

Let price come to them
Let structure define bias
Let risk dictate size
Let patience do the heavy lifting

No headline chasing.
No social-media-induced FOMO.
No “this feels like” trades.

Just levels.
Structure.
Execution.

Volatility may expand. But so does our edge — because we operate from preparation, not prediction.

PTG doesn’t panic. PTG positions.

Welcome to Cycle Day 1.

Hard hats on.
Blueprints out.
Let’s build.

The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan

Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force

Think current — not prediction.

When price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue — we align.
Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.

When structure flips?
Same process. Opposite direction.

No emotion.
No hero trades.
Just flow.

Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave — you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work.

The market rewards traders who ride momentum, not those who try to predict the tide.

Trade Location, Not Emotion

Where you trade matters more than when you trade.

The PTG approach is built on high-probability locations, not impulsive entries.

We focus on:

• Support / Resistance Structure

• Stacker Zones

• Premium vs. Discount

• ATR Pullbacks

• Liquidity Targets

When price reaches these locations, we engage with purpose — not impulse.

Amateurs chase price.
Professionals wait for price to come to them.

Think like a sniper, not a machine gun.

Patience builds consistency.
Consistency builds confidence.
Confidence builds longevity.

The Bottom Line

Pillar #1: Trade with the dominant force
Pillar #2: Trade from advantageous location

Master these two principles and everything else becomes execution.

Simple. Structured. Repeatable.

The Toolbox Matters — But the Hand Using It Matters More

The PTG Trader Toolbox isn’t just well-equipped — it’s built for every market condition you’ll encounter.
Yes… even that strange, rarely-used wrench you didn’t know you’d eventually need.

But here’s the truth:

Your edge doesn’t come from using everything.
Your edge comes from mastering the right tools — the ones that align with your plan, your personality, and your execution style.

Inside the PTG Member’s Area, the resources run deep.
Dozens of educational videos.
Real trade breakdowns.
Live market walkthroughs.

Each one designed to compress your learning curve, eliminate guesswork, and help you build confidence through clarity — not noise.

And when the chart starts moving fast…
When volatility rises…
When emotions try to sneak into your decision-making…

PTGDavid is in the room.

Calm.
Focused.
Professional.

Guiding traders through structure.
Grounding decisions in probabilities.
Keeping the community aligned with what actually matters — price, structure, and discipline.

Because in the end…
Tools don’t make traders successful.

Mastery does.

Cycle Day 1 Focus

Scenarios for today’s trade

Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control

Acceptance north of 7835 ±5

Upside objectives:
• 7845
• 7855
• 7865

Bear Case — Rotation / Reset

Acceptance south of 7835 ±5

Downside objectives:
• 7825
• 7815
• 7805

Key Reference Levels

• PVA High Edge: 7840
• PVA Low Edge: 7827
• Prior POC: 7832

Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

   ES

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)

The ES traded in a 7810.50 to 7843.75 Globex trading range and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 7837.00, up 3.75 points, or +0.05% from Monday’s close.

The overnight session gave traders an early test of the BTS levels. The ES sold off to 7810.50 at 4:30 a.m., briefly trading below the 7812.25 bull/bear line before recovering. That was an important tell: instead of accepting below the bull/bear line and opening the door toward the 7739.75 lower range target, the ES reclaimed 7812.25 and was trading back above 7833.50 ahead of the cash open.

After the 9:30 open, the ES immediately pushed through the 7833.50 support level and tested the 7847.25 resistance highlighted in the BTS Levels. The first 5-minute bar traded exactly 7847.25, and the next bar extended to the session high of 7848.50 at 9:35. That breakout attempt failed to gain traction, however, and the ES began to rotate lower.

The ES pulled back 26.25 points from the morning high to 7822.25 at 11:40 a.m. While that decline broke below 7833.50, it never came close to retesting the 7812.25 bull/bear line during the regular session. From there, buyers stabilized the market and the ES spent much of the afternoon rotating between roughly 7825 and 7840.

Late in the day, the ES made another run at the morning resistance, rallying to 7846.75 at 3:35 and trading as high as 7846.00 during the 3:50 bar. Again, the 7847.25 BTS resistance held. The ES then reversed sharply into the close, dropping to 7829.75 during the final 5-minute bar and closing the regular session at 7831.00, down 2.25 points, or -0.03% from Monday’s close.

After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7834.25 before slipping to 7826.00 and finishing the full CME session at 7827.75. The full-session range was 7810.50 to 7848.50, a 38-point range, with total volume of 1.26 million contracts.

From a BTS Levels standpoint, yesterday offered two clear trading ideas. The first came overnight when the ES briefly broke the 7812.25 bull/bear line but quickly reclaimed it, favoring a recovery back toward 7833.50 and 7847.25. The second came at 7847.25 itself. That resistance was tested immediately after the cash open and again late in the session, but buyers were unable to establish trade above it. The failure kept the 7884.75 upper range target out of reach and turned 7847.25 into the key resistance level of the day.

In the end, the ES spent most of Tuesday caught between the 7812.25 bull/bear line and 7847.25 resistance. Buyers successfully defended the bullish side of the BTS setup, but they never produced the breakout needed to extend toward 7884.75. The result was a two-sided, rotational session that finished almost unchanged despite several attempts to push higher.

MOC Recap: Nasdaq Buying Drives the Close

The MOC opened at a $1.535 billion buy imbalance as $4.926 billion in buys hit against $3.390 billion in sells. Buying continued to build, reaching $3.253 billion at 3:54, with the dollar lean hitting +67.1%—the strongest wholesale-buy signal of the sequence. From there, the imbalance faded sharply, dropping to $278.0 million at 3:56 and finishing at just $121.0 million at 4:00.

The 3:51 snapshot showed a very different story between dollars and symbols. All Markets had a +59.2% dollar lean but a -58.2% symbol lean, with 287 stocks to buy versus 399 to sell. The S&P 500 was similarly rotational at +62.3% dollars and -53.1% symbols. The Nasdaq stood out with a +72.5% dollar lean and +55.0% symbol lean, indicating concentrated institutional buying, while the NYSE remained offered at -$284.0 million.

Technology dominated the sector flow with a $1.374 billion net buy and a notable +76.6% dollar lean. Communication Services was even more concentrated at +88.1%, producing $551.8 million net buying. Materials also crossed the wholesale threshold at +67.3%. On the sell side, Energy registered -71.5%, while Financials posted the largest sector net sell at -$302.9 million. Basic Materials showed -100.0%, although it represented only one symbol.

The biggest individual buys were NVDA at $382.7 million, META at $260.1 million, STX at $239.3 million, AVGO at $205.4 million, and GOOGL at $191.8 million. Selling was led by AMZN at $378.2 million, followed by BRK.B at $86.3 million, SNDK at $82.5 million, MRVL at $81.5 million, and LLY at $75.0 million.

Overall, this was concentrated Nasdaq/technology buying rather than a broad market-wide buy program, and much of the large mid-MOC imbalance evaporated into the 4:00 close.

How to read the MIM

ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Macro & Geopolitics

• Oil extended its decline to a sixth straight session, with Brent and WTI at two-week lows as Gulf supply concerns eased and traders reacted to renewed hopes for U.S.–Iran talks.

• Diesel remains a major inflation risk after reportedly reaching a record $6.52, keeping pressure on transportation, logistics, agriculture, and small-cap industrial margins.

• The U.S. dollar is holding near two-month highs as markets weigh persistent inflation risks and the possibility of tighter Fed policy.

• Traders are also monitoring U.S.–China developments and geopolitical headlines, which remain potential volatility catalysts.

Tech & AI

• Apple is reportedly targeting lower-cost AI capabilities in new Macs, potentially increasing competition with Microsoft and Nvidia.

• AI remains a key market leadership theme, with hyperscaler spending, semiconductor investment, and AI-linked names continuing to support NQ strength.

Earnings & Economic Calendar

• Premarket earnings: Cintas (CTAS), General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX).

• Thursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI) and TD SYNNEX (SNX) premarket; Costco (COST) after the close.

• Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs: 9:45 a.m. ET.

• Fed Governor Michael Barr: 10:05 a.m. ET.

• Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are also on the calendar.

ES Market Setup

• Volatility contracted sharply Tuesday following the prior session’s rally.

• ES 5-day average daily range remains elevated at roughly 93 points.

• No whale bias this morning, with overnight large-trader volume too light to provide a meaningful signal.

• ES traded sideways below 7850 Tuesday and remains positioned between major trend lines, leaving room for movement in either direction.

• The 50-day moving average at 7717.75 remains loose support.

Key ES Levels

• Resistance: 7965–7970

• Support: 7750–7755

• Lower support: 7532–7537

• Major lower support: 7407–7412

Trading Focus

• Watch crude direction, Treasury yields, dollar strength, and geopolitical headlines for cross-asset volatility.

• Energy, transportation, and AI-linked technology remain among the sectors most sensitive to the current macro backdrop.