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I wasn’t surprised to see a little weakness yesterday. After all, both the ES and NQ ripped higher for two-and-a-half straight days, and you could still feel some leftover tech selling floating around the tape. Nothing unusual about that after a sharp run.

Goldman came out with a big-picture call — they’ve got the S&P 500 tagging 9,000 by 2030 and 11,100 by 2035. Their math is pretty straightforward: 6% EPS growth, about 1.4% in dividends, and a small valuation drag that nets out to roughly 6.5% annualized returns — 4% real. They say the upside could stretch to 10% a year, but that depends on how concentrated U.S. tech gets.

Where things really get interesting is outside the U.S. Emerging markets are set up for much bigger long-term returns — almost 11% in local currency and nearly 13% in USD terms through 2035. That’s being driven by 8.7% EPS growth, nearly 3% dividends, and a wave of structural reforms. India’s the standout with a 12.6% EPS pop, and you’ve got EM dividend yields pushing toward 3.2%. Asia ex-Japan is looking at about 10% a year and Japan around 8%.

The bigger theme here is that AI’s productivity boost isn’t going to stay locked inside the U.S. megacaps — it’s going global, and a softening dollar only helps that trend. The takeaway: keep your U.S. core — something like VOO — but start leaning into emerging markets with something like EEM if you want to catch the longer-term growth wave.

Year  S&P 500 Target
2026 — 7,600
2027 — 7,900
2028 — 8,300
2029 — 8,600
2030 — 9,000
2031 — 9,400
2032 — 9,800
2033 — 10,200
2034 — 10,700
2035 — 11,100

Market Recap:

This is a post I put in the chat before I went offline on Tuesday after the 4:00 cash close:

IMPRO : Dboy : (Tue: 4:24:49 PM): the ES sells off a little late and then press the highs after 4:00.

I say 75% of the time they are up on Globex, and guess what? The ES traded up to 6900.50 on Globex and opened Tuesday's regular session at 6891.25, up 18.5 points or +0.27%. After the open, the ES at 9:45 traded 6892.50 and dropped 38.50 points down to 6854.00 at 11:10, traded up to 6873.00 at 11:35, and then dropped 21 points down to a new daily low at 6852.00. After the low, the ES rallied up to 6881.25 at 12:40, pulled back to 6868.25, and then back and filled just below and just above the VWAP for the next hour. The ES traded up to 6884.25 at 1:40, pulled back to the VWAP and back and filled until 2:05 when the ES broke down to 6865.00 at 2:30, back and filled under the VWAP until 2:55, traded 6863.25, traded up to 6882.50 at 3:30, did a sideways grind until the ES traded 6876.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed, traded 6883.75, sold off down to 6869.50 at 3:55, and traded 6876.00 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, it traded up to 6881.00 at 4:10, flatlined above the VWAP until 4:50, and then started to downtick and traded 6875.75, up 4.25 points or +0.06%, up 4 days in a row. The NQ settled at 25,623.75, down 17 points or 0.07%, and down 4 out of the last 5 sessions.

In the end, there was a big rotation, buy YM and sell NQ. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it acted far better than the NQ all day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was surprisingly higher at 1.345 million contracts traded.

Chip stocks rallied — led by AMD's +9% surge on a bullish 5-year AI outlook, lifting semis like ADI (+3%), MCHP/TXN (+2%), while Magnificent 7 names dragged: TSLA/META (-2%), AMZN/GOOGL (-1%), AAPL (-0.7%). Energy plunged as WTI crude fell 4.3% to $58.42, hitting HAL (-4%) and majors like XOM/CVX (-1%). Markets mixed: Dow +0.7% to record, S&P flat, Nasdaq -0.45%. Rotation favors AI chips and value (financials +1.2%) over big tech and oil; December Fed cut odds to 65%.

No major economic reports are due today, though Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks at 10:25 a.m. ET. The government reopening should clear one source of uncertainty by releasing delayed data, like the September jobs report, as early as next week. However, the White House Press Secretary confirmed Wednesday that October inflation and labor market reports are “likely never” to be released.

That's a great way to fudge the numbers.

MiM

The MOC flow opened with a decisive burst of buy pressure, posting a +$2.445B net imbalance at 15:50, driven entirely by $4.496B in buys against $2B sell interest. That early spike produced a strong upside lean of +68.7%, signaling broad participation across roughly 701 symbols. But the tone shifted quickly: by 15:52, heavy sell programs began to appear, and from 15:54 onward, the sell side controlled the close. Total imbalances flipped negative by 15:55 and stayed that way into the bell, finishing near –$952M at 16:00. The transition was clean: a buy-dominated open that rolled into sustained sell pressure, confirming real supply hitting late.

Sector flows reflected this change. Early strength was most notable in Technology (+$1.543B total flow, +86.5% lean), Consumer Cyclical (+$263M, +62.8%), and Industrials (+$250M, +66.7%). These were wholesale-level buy signals, with lean values far above the 66% threshold. Communication Services also posted a large buy bias (+$231M, +74.9%). On the other side, Financials were aggressively sold (–$60M, –53.4%), while Basic Materials (–$24M, –60%) and Real Estate (–$173M, –89.9%) showed the heaviest downside wholesale pressure. Real Estate was the standout liquidation group with both dollar outflow and extreme lean.

Individual names showed similar bifurcation. On the buy side, big-cap tech led: AAPL ($369M), NVDA ($241M), MSFT ($233M), AVGO ($109M), and TSLA ($169M) all posted significant positive totals. AMZN, HON, and GOOGL added breadth. This was broad-based mega-cap accumulation early in the auction. Conversely, Financials were hit: BAC, GS, AXP, and V all printed material sell flows. Healthcare names AMGN and ABBV leaned positive, while ROL, JCI, and PG saw mixed or rotational activity.

The auction opened with index-level buy programs—S&P buy lean +70.1%, NASDAQ an extreme +90.1%—but both faded as sell pressure accelerated into the bell. The session ultimately shifted from broad accumulation to broad liquidation, with the closing print dominated by sellers.

How to read the MiM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for November 13, 2025

• S&P: 22.15

• NQ: 97.21

• Dow: 90.08

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, November 12, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 154 / 41
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 210 / 132
• NYSE TRIN: 0.76
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.90

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, November 7, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 35% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 223 / 242
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 345 / 608
• NYSE TRIN: 0.82
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.49

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Released

Full Calendars

Trading Room News:

PTG Room Summary – Wednesday, November 12, 2025

The trading session opened with a bullish outlook based on the DTS briefing, as price had already fulfilled upside targets overnight. Key trade zones were mapped out with both continuation and reversal setups across ES, including support buys at 6871–6875 and deep support around 6821–6825.

Key Trades & Highlights:

• Crude Oil (CL): David initiated an open range short which hit both Target 1 and 2 successfully. Solid execution early.

• Nasdaq (NQ): Also had an open range short that achieved Target 1.

• ES Futures:

  • A Support Buy zone at 6871–6875 was triggered mid-morning per Manny, though he did not take the trade.

  • Price eventually broke below 6875, leading to a bear scenario targeting 6865–6855.

  • Target hit precisely at 6855, celebrated by David as a “bullseye strike” and confirmed by others citing the Daily Range Calculator’s accuracy.

Lessons & Takeaways:

• Precise Targeting: The PTG levels and DTS brief proved highly reliable, particularly with the 6855 print.

• Patience & Discipline: Some traders observed the setup but opted not to engage — a reminder that identifying zones is one thing, execution is another.

• Market Behavior: Choppy action during the session with both bulls and bears getting trapped, highlighting the importance of adaptive strategies.

Overall, a day with multiple tradeable setups, clean execution on CL and NQ shorts, and a high-precision ES bear target hit, reinforcing the value of PTG’s structured planning and range tools.

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, November 13, 2025

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!