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Our View

Globex had a 10.75 point range, from 6754.75 down to 6744.00. Globex closed at 6757.25, with a total of 108k contracts traded, and opened the regular session at 6757.25.

After the open, the ES rallied up to 6756.50 at 9:51, dropped down to 6745.50 at 10:03, rallied up to a 6755.50 lower high, and got hit by several sell programs as the NQ weakened, pushing the ES down to 6731.25 at 12:33. It rallied up to 6741.25, then sold off down to 6702.00, rallied to 6716.25 at 2:00, sold off to a new low by 0.50 point at 6701.50, rallied up to 6718.50 after the 3:50 imbalance showed a small buy, pulled back to 6711.50, and traded 6715.75 on the 4:00 cash close. It settled at 6717.50, down 32.25 points or -0.52% on the day.

In the end, they had it all going: weak AI names, Trump's speech at the UN, Powell speaking, and a very overbought ES and NQ. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the pressure from the NQ kept a lid on the ES. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.264 million contracts traded.

Today’s economic calendar:

• 10:00 AM: New Home Sales

• 4:10 PM: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks

Gold (GCZ25) has been up 14 of the last 19 sessions, with three of the down days showing losses of -0.2%, -0.23%, and -0.20%, but it's down 0.57% this morning, and the dollar is up 0.46%. I still think gold is on its way to $3,500 over the next two months. I think the central banks will continue to buy gold and silver and sell the dollar. I don't think there will be any letup going into the end of 2025.

Our View

After the NQ being up 12 of the last 15 sessions, the NQ had its worst day in almost a month. While I still think higher, I also don’t think it’s a good idea to let your guard down.

I want to remind everyone that according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the week after September Quad Witching has been down 26 of the last 34 years, with an average loss of 1.1% going back to 1990.

Rosh Hashanah was down, and the end of September is prone to weakness from the end-of-3Q institutional portfolio restructuring. Next Tuesday, the last trading day of September and the third quarter, has been down 18 of the last 27, but up 5 of the last 9, with a massive 5.4% rally in 2008.

And we still have to get past this Friday’s PCE number. I think you have to be on guard for some weakness.

Yesterday a former trader from the S&P options pit who was part of a trading group called me, he was looking for backing. The last time I talked to him he said "the guys I work for are trying not to pay me" I looked at him and asked him what he said and he asked me what he should do? I told him, "March down to the membership department and file an arbitration against the company's seats. That was over 25 years ago.

After I told him to call, I said they know me, they know I'm honest and you know what he said?

"I know you are Danny, you probably don't remember this but when I got screwed by the firm I worked for I collected the $80k they owed me because you told me to file arbitration against their seats.

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive Three-Day Cycle as this rally secured 77 pts (104.44%) of the 73.73 average cycle range.

Price retested the prior high and was rejected, setting up a short play, that carried price lower fulfilling the 6712 CD1 average decline projection.

Heavy concentration of 0DTE Gamma played a role  driving price lower to the previous low, before settling.

Range for this session was 54 handles on 1.016 contracts exchanged.

PTG Glossary

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle 

…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the average decline projection zone between (6720) and (6712) which has been fulfilled during yesterday’s decline.

As such, possible scenarios could be a retest of the 6701.75 low, find a buy response, recouping a percentage of the decline.

Also, potential would be to retest 6701.75 and breakdown lower targeting 6685 – 6680 zone.

Stay flexible to the various scenarios, but rigid in the execution of your trade plan.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6715+-, initially targets 6725 – 6730 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6715+-, initially targets 6700– 6695 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6754    PVA Low Edge = 6709         Prior POC = 6749

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

The S&P 500 futures (ESZ25) endured a volatile session on Tuesday, as early resilience gave way to persistent selling pressure in the regular session, leaving the contract lower on the day.

Overnight trade opened at 6749.50 and regained upside momentum taking ES to 6753.25 at 21:40, followed by a secondary push to 6752.50 just before 23:10. Buyers briefly regained control after midnight, carrying the contract to a new Globex high of 6754.00 at 01:40. The rally proved short-lived as a sequence of lower lows developed, hitting 6747.25 at 03:00, and 6744.00 by 07:10. The overnight session concluded at 6750.25, essentially unchanged, with a 0.01% gain.

The regular session opened at 6750.25 and made an early run higher, hitting 6756.50 at 09:50 and a lower high at 6755.50 by 10:10. Sellers quickly overwhelmed the tape, driving ES to 6731.25 at 12:35 and continuing to grind lower through midday. By 12:55, the contract hit 6731.25, marking a 24.25-point slide from the morning high. A small bounce to 6741.50 at 12:50 was met with renewed selling. The afternoon selloff accelerated, dropping ES to 6720.00 by 13:40, a full 36.5 points off the morning high. A brief lower high at 6716.25 at 13:45 was followed by the session low of 6701.75 at 14:55. The contract stabilized into the close, finishing the regular session at 6715.75, down 34.50 points or -0.51% from the day's open and down 36 points or -0.53% from the previous cash close. 

Volume was decent, with 1.05M contracts changing hands during the regular session and 1.21M across the full day, reflecting the heavy liquidation pressure.

Market tone leaned bearish, with intraday attempts to rally consistently met by aggressive selling. Breadth favored the downside, as the contract repeatedly carved lower highs and lower lows through the afternoon.

The Market-on-Close imbalance data was light, showing $789M in total notional, with 57.6% on the buy side by dollar amount but a symbol imbalance of -53.4%, indicating more individual stocks leaning toward sell imbalances. Notably, Visa (+$861M), Oracle (+$451M), and Amazon (+$58M) posted strong buy imbalances, while JPMorgan (-$347M), Nvidia (-$118M), and Tesla (-$110M) skewed heavily to the sell side. Sector flows were mixed, with Real Estate (+94.6%) and Utilities (+91.2%) attracting inflows, while Consumer Cyclical (-77.5%) and Healthcare (-74.7%) bore the brunt of selling.

Overall, Tuesday’s session underscored a shift in tone as buyers failed to extend Globex strength into the day session, and strong sector-specific imbalances on the close could not prevent a broader market fade. ES finished firmly lower, leaving traders watching whether the 6700 handle can continue to provide support into Wednesday’s trade.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for September 17, 2025:

• SP: 60.35

• NQ: 252.24

• Dow: 361.43

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, September 23, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 54.6% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 52.3% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 46.8% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 38.9% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 41.9% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 209 / 46
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 393 / 70
• NYSE TRIN: 0.62
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.65

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, September 19, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 52.0% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 61.5% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58.0% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 47.8% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59.3% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 55.1% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 364 / 76
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 805 / 187
• NYSE TRIN: 0.81
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.88

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Overview:
Tuesday unfolded as a “wild-card” session, with Cycle Day 3 targets already met prior to the open. The room approached the day with cautious optimism, using the 6745 level as the Line in the Sand (LIS). The session began with disciplined trade planning and solid early execution, though the mid-morning turned into a grind. A strong late-day move helped salvage what had been a choppy session, with several traders adapting effectively.

Positive Trades & Highlights:

• Early Execution Success:

  • Manny opened the day strong, capturing +5 points on the LB&F Long setup off the 6745 micro-shelf.

  • He noted success with the CCI indicator and wisely shifted into a defensive posture for the rest of the session (25% offense, 75% defense).

  • PTGDavid acknowledged it as a "nice start."

• Operational Precision:

  • PTGDavid executed multiple OPR trades with success:

    • NQ OPR Short: Target 1 and 2 were filled.

    • CL OPR Long: All targets were achieved by 10:30 AM.

  • These trades were clean, rule-based, and executed during otherwise difficult conditions.

• Afternoon Recovery:

  • John B and Roy_ had a constructive dialogue around an ATA/RSPR short setup post-stop-out, showing resilience and technical refinement.

  • John B shared a well-executed ATA trade, managed with discretion and alignment to his directional bias. Several traders praised his methodical approach.

  • The late-session downdraft gave traders a second wind

Lessons & Takeaways:

• Discipline & Realism:

  • Manny noted two stop-outs following his early win and reflected: “Trying to capture the same setup after being paid on it is not my brightest moment.” His honesty highlighted the challenge of overtrading after early success.

• Emotional Management:

  • Bruce F recognized the need to work on his emotions, especially after seeing the day turn from choppy to profitable.

  • PTGDavid reinforced a key mindset lesson: "I never get overly optimistic or pessimistic about market expectations. I am agnostic… fully optimistic of my actions."

• Tool Refinement & Strategy Integration:

  • Traders shared insights on indicators and gamma levels:

    • Discussion around GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels (Menthor Q vs SpotGamma).

    • Options Flow & ATA integration were explored, highlighting a growing emphasis on combining methodologies.

• Community Support:

  • Questions were answered clearly (e.g., “What is CD?” — Cumulative Delta), and multiple members shared strategy notes and chart setups, fostering a learning environment.

Market Summary:

• Morning Session: Choppy and range-bound. Despite solid setups, price action was described as "crappy," with many traders sitting on their hands or dealing with minor stop-outs.

• Midday: Uneventful, with PTGDavid in meetings and traders largely defensive.

• Afternoon: The market finally broke with momentum to the downside, offering redemption. Traders who stayed disciplined and waited for clean setups were rewarded.

Final Word from David:

Key Levels Recap:

• Line in the Sand: 6745

• Initial Bull Target Zone: 6755 – 6765

• Initial Bear Target Zone: 6730 – 6725

• Gamma Hotspot: SPX 6740 noted as 99th percentile by Raja

Overall Sentiment:
A challenging but educational day. Early setups offered profit, while patience and adaptability were tested through midday chop. Those who maintained discipline into the afternoon captured meaningful downside action.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!