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Globex Gaps and Oil Barrels — When the World’s Burning, Trade the Open
Danny Riley
March 03, 2026
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Our View
I think this all comes down to one thing: predict the unpredictable. As I said, the Middle East war is front and center, but when the whole world is selling, sometimes that becomes a big fade. I can't blame anyone but myself, but I watched too much TV reporting of the war when I usually don’t watch TV during the day and never listen to CNBC, FOX Business, or Bloomberg. I got overstimulated and lost track of my own trading rules.
Additionally, @HandleStats’ gap study had an 80% probability of filling the gap!!!! The only thing I can say is… on to the next!
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
Guest Posts:
Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
The blue line tracks the S&P 500, while the red line reflects the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks. Historically, this growth/value ratio has served as a reliable proxy for risk appetite. From the 2020 pandemic lows through last year, sustained leadership from growth consistently coincided with a rising S&P 500—an environment characterized by expanding multiples, higher beta exposure, and strong investor confidence in forward earnings.
That relationship has begun to shift. Since the start of this year, a clear divergence has emerged: the S&P 500 has remained relatively resilient, yet the growth/value ratio has weakened. In other words, index-level stability is no longer being driven by aggressive growth leadership but by rotation into value-oriented sectors.
This divergence is notable because it signals a change in underlying market character. Capital appears to be migrating away from higher-beta growth exposures and into areas perceived as more defensive or valuation-supported. If this rotation persists, it could mark the early stages of a broader shift toward capital preservation, quality balance sheets, and cash flow stability—potentially foreshadowing a more risk-averse phase in the equity cycle.
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here.
Market Recap
The ES settled at 6888.25 on Friday and opened Sunday night’s Globex session at 6820.00, made a high at 6857.00, sold off down to 6768.50, and opened Monday’s regular session at 6811.00, down 77.25 points or -1.13%, with oversized Globex volume of 623k ES traded.
After the open, the ES rallied up to 6839.25, rallied up to 6878.00 at 10:20, sold off down to 6848.00 at 10:35, rallied up to 6872.75 as the NQ made a new high, sold off down to 6855.50, rallied up to 6880.75 at 11:10, sold off down to 6853.00, and then rallied up to a new high at 6896.50 at 11:45. It pulled back to 6876.00 at 2:02 and rallied all the way up to 6911.00 at 2:35, sold off down to 6872.75 at 3:15, traded up to a lower high at 6891.25 at 3:35, and traded 6887.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.8 billion to buy. It popped up to 6897.24 at 3:55 and traded 6887.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES flatlined and settled at 6884.50, down 1.00 point or -0.01%, but 119.75 points off its 6768.50 Globex low. The NQ settled at 25,025.25, up 20.50 points or +00.8%, 548.25 points off its 24,477/00 low. The YM settled at 48,945, down 55 points or -0.11%, 779 points off its 48.166 Globex low, and the RTY settled at 2,657.90, up 23/20 points or +0.88%, 84.80 points off its 2,573.10 Globex low.
In the end, Rich from @HandleStats asked me what I thought on Sunday night, and I said the ES usually does what most people don't expect it to do — and it did. I didn't buy the open, but I knew there was oversized Globex volume, which meant everyone was offside, and when it went ripping higher from the open, I didn't want to chase it and lose money selling it.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, there was a lot of initial buying in the tech stocks, and I think that caught the shorts off guard. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher: 623k traded on Globex and 1,221 million traded in the day session, for a total of 1.844 million contracts traded.
On Tap Today
There are no scheduled economic reports today.
9:55 am – NY Fed President John Williams remarks
10:10 am – KC Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks
11:45 am – Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari interview
In the lean yesterday, I said I didn't doubt the ES could rally and thought you could sell the dead cat bounce, and I had a typo in the lean — resistance should have been 6900–6930. But I have to be honest, I never thought the ES, NQ, YM, and RTY would bounce that much. As I said, I wrote the OP on Sunday and was not going to change it, but when I woke up and saw 450k ES traded at 6:30 am and watched it jump to 630k, the only thing I can say is I should've known.
I have a few rules that surround that type of Globex volume, and the first is that when you see oversized Globex volume on big gap downs, it usually means everyone got short, put in stops, and that after running the downside stops, the bots start chasing the upside stops. The other rule I have is that the ES never does what most people want it to do when they want it.
It wasn't just the index markets that did u-turns. The CLM26 (crude futures) made a high at $73.00 and settled at $69.81. The BTH26 bitcoin futures made a low at 65,000 and settled at 69,480, up 3,600 points or +5.46%. The GCH26 (gold futures) made a high at 5,280.00 and made a low 5,176.70, and ended up 54.00. The ZHH26 (bond futures) made a high at 119.19 and a low at 117.27, down 1.01 points. Everything was moving!
MiM
Market-on-Close Recap – MiM
The March 2nd MOC session developed into a broad-based institutional buy program that strengthened steadily into the close. At 15:50 the market showed a small -$73M imbalance, entirely sell-driven. That quickly flipped by 15:51 to +$2.347B, with $4.152B to buy versus $1.805B to sell, establishing an early 69.7% dollar lean and 55.5% symbol lean — a clear directional bias rather than rotation.
From there, the pressure persisted. Total imbalance peaked at +$2.951B at 15:55 before holding firm above +$2.1B into 15:57 and re-expanding to +$2.418B at 15:59. The close printed +$1.796B with an 89.9% dollar skew, signaling an increasingly one-sided buy program into the bell.
NASDAQ led the charge. It closed with +$1.801B and an 83.3% dollar lean, well above the 66% threshold that defines wholesale institutional buying. The S&P printed +$2.123B with a 69.5% lean, also firmly in buy-program territory. NYSE was positive but more rotational at 59.4%.
Sector flows confirmed aggressive accumulation. Communication Services posted a striking +93.7% lean, while Real Estate (+80.5%), Basic Materials (+79.3%), Healthcare (+74.4%), Technology (+71.0%), Industrials (+69.8%), and Utilities (+69.6%) all showed strong buy-side conviction. Consumer Defensive (+60.3%) was more balanced but still positive. Financial Services stood out as the only net seller at -53.2%, reflecting rotation out of banks and exchanges even as the tape lifted.
Single-name flows reinforced the theme. Semiconductors dominated with AVGO (+$190.9M), TXN (+$178.6M), LRCX (+$128.2M), AMAT (+$81.9M), QCOM, KLAC, and SNPS all bid. Mega-cap growth saw accumulation in GOOG (+$162.3M), AMZN (+$151.5M), TSLA (+$112.8M), AAPL (+$89.5M), and NFLX (+$87.2M). Financial names such as MS and ICE appeared but were less dominant relative to tech inflows.
Overall, this was not a mixed rotational close. With multiple sectors and the NASDAQ printing leans above 66%, the MOC reflected broad institutional accumulation, led by technology and growth, with selective rotation out of financials.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for March 3, 2026:
SP: 8.17
NQ: 34.94
Dow: 53.63
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, March 2, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 245 / 87
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 171 / 224
• NYSE TRIN: 1.10
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.74
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, February 27, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 43% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 45% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 446 / 178
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 576 / 554
• NYSE TRIN: 0.70
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Recent
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, March 2, 2026
Monday was a textbook Cycle Day 1 reversal session and a powerful start to March.
Overnight Structure Set the Opportunity
ES hit the Cycle Day 1 Statistical Violation Level: 6769.50
Projected Average Decline (6781) was fulfilled and reclaimed.
Overnight activity was active and set the tone for responsive trade.
Right away, this told us: statistical lows were in play, and responsive buyers could step in.
The Core Move – CD1 Gap Down Reversal
This developed into what David called an absolute “killer” Cycle Day 1”:
Gap down into 6769.50
Marked the low pivot
Reversal launched
Rallied approximately 130 handles
Reclaimed prior Cycle Day 1 low: 6892.25
That is structural, not random.
NQ Confirmation
Reversed from 24532.38 (CD1 Violation Level)
Reclaimed prior Cycle Day 1 low (24993)
Rallied roughly 600 handles
When both ES and NQ reclaim prior CD1 lows after statistical violations, that’s powerful cycle alignment.
Trade Structure & Execution
Morning Framework
Lean long against 6800 midpoint level
Bulls needed to reclaim 6840–6842 zone
Decision point identified at 6860
Clear if/then structure:
Acceptance above 6840 → 6855 → 6865 → 6875
Acceptance below 6840 → 6820 → 6813 → 6795
The market chose strength.
Open Range Performance
NQ Open Range Long — Target fulfilled
Strong follow-through during the session.
Internals confirmed the bias.
Market Internals = Confirmation
Advance/Decline Ratio strong all day
NYSE TICK bullish bias from the open
$2.8B MOC Buy Imbalance
David reinforced:
Alignment with internals is the only pathway to success.
Park your opinion at the door.
The data supported the long side throughout most of the session.
Key Lessons from Monday
Cycle Day 1 Statistical Violations are opportunity zones
Especially when reclaimed.
Reclaiming prior cycle lows changes tone
That reclaim was critical information.
Structure first, opinion never
The levels dictated the plan.
The internals confirmed the bias.
Open Range remains consistent
Defined risk.
Objective targets.
Clean execution.
Bottom Line
Monday delivered:
A precise CD1 statistical low reversal
Strong multi-index confirmation
Open Range target fulfillment
Bullish internals alignment
A powerful 130-handle ES rally / 600-handle NQ rally
A high-quality, rules-based session where structure and discipline were rewarded.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Geopolitics Driving Volatility
Macro / Geopolitical Focus
Escalating Middle East conflict remains the primary driver.
Fresh Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon; markets watching for Iran’s response.
Oil infrastructure across multiple countries reportedly hit.
Strait of Hormuz closed, pushing oil prices higher.
Rising energy costs fueling inflation concerns.
Fed rate cuts now largely priced for September (per FedWatch).
February ISM Manufacturing Prices rose at the fastest pace since Feb 2022.
Safe-haven flows lifting the U.S. dollar.
Gold and silver volatile; prolonged conflict could send metals back toward all-time highs.
AI / Political Headlines
Public backlash grows after OpenAI CEO confirmed cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense.
OpenAI says AI use by military intelligence would require contract modifications.
Anthropic previously denied broad U.S. military access.
Trump directed agencies to halt Anthropic AI use, labeling it a “supply chain risk.”
Surge in demand for Anthropic’s Claude amid public shift away from ChatGPT.
Claude expanded memory feature to free users and added ChatGPT history import capability.
Earnings
Premarket: AZO, BBY, SEA, SHG, SNN, TGT, VIK
After close: CRWD, ROST
Wednesday AM: DY, KB, WF
Economic Calendar
Light data calendar.
Fed speakers:
Williams (9:55am ET)
Kashkari (11:45am ET)
ES Technical Overview
Volatility elevated; 5-day ADR expanded to 99.50 points.
Whale bias: Bearish into U.S. open.
ES below 50-day MA (6934.50) for third straight session (short-term bearish).
50-day MA acting as overhead resistance.
Intermediate-term uptrend channel widened after recent breakdown and rebound.
Channel bottom now ~6670/75 — being tested overnight.
Break below channel support opens room for further downside.
Bulls still have room to defend trendline support.
Key Levels
Resistance: 6973/68, 7185/90
Support: 6770/75, 6647/42
Heightened volatility expected as geopolitical headlines continue to drive price action.
