Geopolitical Tension and US Debt Continue to Grow

Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

Our View

While the focus of the markets is the Israeli-Hamas war and its potential to expand, there is something else expanding. The US federal debt held by the public has skyrocketed by almost 800% since 2000, ballooning from just over $3 trillion to $26 trillion.

As I have always said, I’m not smart enough to know how this is all going to work out, but it really feels like something that's going from bad to worse. Rates, higher for longer, inflation and war. I really think everything that's going on is playing right into the Chinese state planners playbook. Let the US get drawn into a war in the Middle East and then a skirmish in the China Sea and then the US is caught up on multiple fronts.

I have to say something.

I have been holding shorts for over a week, and on most occasions I would be cheering my victories, but I have a hole in my gut. I have never been someone who gets scared and nor do I worry about dying but I worry about my family; I worry about my daughter and her baby that turned three on Sunday. What is this going to look like in 1 year? 5 years? Or 10 or 20 years? It just feels unstable and unsustainable. What I do know is things are evolving quickly.

Despite all that, some are asking if the markets are ignoring the geopolitical risks.