- The Opening Print
- Fryday - NHOTC - Teeing up for next week OPEX
Fryday - NHOTC - Teeing up for next week OPEX
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Quiet days lead to busy days especially when they fall on a Friday option expirations, especially after a day of consolidation above the big figure at 5000.00. I don't have the background that Jeff Hirsch from Stock Trader's Almanac or Rich Miller from Handel Stats does. I know they both see the election year as being up and I agree but there haven't been any real speed bumps yet. I saw a few posts on blow-off tops but as I said, they tend to be hard to pick.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade
MiM and Daily Recap
The ES traded in a 12.5-point range from 5003.75 up to 5016.25 on 155k contracts traded (low) and opened Thursday's regular session at 5013.25. After the open, the ES rallied up to 5016.00 and then dropped a quick 4 points and basically stayed within 3-4 points of the vwap for the first hour of trading. At 10:43, the ES dropped to 5005.50 before trading up to 5014.00, a lower high, at 11:02, and then back down to a new low by 2 ticks at 5005.00 at 11:32. Everything was in slow motion back and fill. After the low, the ES slowly got bid up to 5015.75 at 1:42, one tick off the high of the day, and then dropped a few points down to 5008.00 at 2:40. At 3:32, the ES finally broke out to a new high at 5018.25 as the early imbalance showed $470 million to buy. After the pop, the ES pulled back to the 5012.25 area at 3:49 and traded 5013.50 as the NYSE 3:50 order imbalance showed $1.7 billion to sell and traded 5019 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES sold off down to 5013.75 and settled at 4914.50, down 1 point or 0.02% on the day. The NQ settled at 17,860.25, up 5.25 points or +0.03%, the YM settled at 38,01.00, up 27 points or 0.07%. and the RTY settled at 1,986.00, up 28.50 points or up 1.46% on the 5:00 futures close.
In the end, there was some trade but overall it was a choppy mess until the late-day buy program hit. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was a rest day. In terms of the ES's overall trade., volume was low,155k traded on Globex and 789k on the day session for a total of 944k contracts traded. I would have to go back and look at the volume stats but I do not think I have not seen under 1 million contracts traded during a non-holiday, full session in a long time. If one thing is clear, the ES is too firm to sell and too high to buy.
S&P 500 — ES Futures
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Wyckoff AM Turn:
Disclaimer: For educational use only. I'm not dispensing financial advice. We are having an intellectual conversation (you and I) on the topic of trading the Emin futures using the Lens of Wyckoff Principles and the Eyes of WB's Clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday, every day!
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Some traders in chat were talking about the day as flipping to the other side. As for me, if you feel you need to flip it then flip it. However, by my eyes, it did not need flipping. It's like WB would say; "Shooting elephants with needles." I think he'd say that instead of saying you're full of it.
The day before was bullish. That makes the next day Choppy / Sideways. Bulls just need to hold their gains. The bears did not really have an edge on the previous day. The Composite Man was not looking to take price either way. Bullfish and Tunna's were on the sidelines. It was the Sardenees, the man in the seat, the floor traders that were picking each other's pockets.
The spill down sealed around center time 9:40 am. Next the AM HIGH. It's Debbie Day. We could have a Link a Stink or a Wedge Zoom. Odds though did not favor either. It was going to be sideways choppy trading.
We'd like to see the AM HIGH take out the previous close but it did not. The next turn MID AM LOW comes in center time 10:30 am and sets the new low of day. Notice the volume. Also, notice the Globex low was untouched. See the volume expand as price moves up? That's bullish price behavior.
We have the lunch high and then the mid pm low. Notice the mid pm low is a higher low than the AM LOW. What is that? That's higher lows and higher highs. And that's what the clock printed yesterday. That's why I say the day was S4H day. Where was the high of day? Last hour last print.
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Looking Forward to February 9, 2024
Today's Stop: Ideal 20% ATR of 40; 4 to 8 points or 1% to 2% of trading account value.
Tone / Sentiment : Composite Man is unable to gain a following at these highs. Volume less than 700K lots. Potential Bullish Sideway.
Strategy: At the close price spiked up and then traded back. It's a Friday and a new cycle. Need to see price pull back and gain some support. If price decides to print a new all time high need to see volume increase on the print.
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