Our View

Welcome to FRYday, the CPI number, the week two options expiration, and headline hell, where anything and everything goes.

I know this may sound funny, but I don’t think all the big shorts have covered. While they call today a “standard” weekly expiration, it will be driven largely by SPX weeklies and 0DTE activity.

Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen — this isn’t over until the 4:00 cash close.

Our Lean

Today is the third day of storms, high winds, and record flash floods in Florida. A few days ago, they said there could be up to one foot of rain, and I think it has surpassed that. But the real storm isn’t the inclement weather here — it’s the war in the Middle East that is brewing.

Tomorrow, there is a face-to-face meeting in the Pakistani capital. The U.S. is sending a team led by Vice President JD Vance, while Iran will be represented by officials from its National Security Council. Currently, the atmosphere remains incredibly tense, with reports of sporadic violations and “complete distrust” expressed by both the U.S. and Iranian sides.

I have no idea how this will end up. I doubt the U.S. will agree to Iran’s demands for the lifting of all sanctions, security guarantees against future attacks, and Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the U.S. demands the permanent dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program and guaranteed safe maritime passage in the Gulf.

4:00 ET today is 1:00 AM in Pakistan, so I doubt there will be any headlines other than the same saber-rattling we have been seeing. The meeting in Islamabad Saturday morning is expected to begin around 9–11 AM local, or 1:00 AM ET.

Our lean: I still think the ES and NQ can go higher, but the index markets have already rallied a lot. Like I said yesterday, there is a lot of resistance at the 6880 to 6930 level, and you have to expect a lot of posturing from the U.S. and Iran today. If there is anything that’s clear, it’s that the market is pricing in a deal, but I still don’t think Iran is going to bend to the U.S. demands… we shall see.

If the ES gaps higher, I want to sell the open or the first rally above the gap and look to buy the drops or pullbacks. If the ES gaps lower, I want to buy the open or the first drop below the gap.

That said, I think you should approach the day with a high level of caution. My question is: with crude up so much, who wants to go home long with so much uncertainty and the markets being up so much?

ES Futures — All S/R Levels (Last: 6863.25 · 04/09/2026)

The market is trading in an extended position, sitting between the composite VAH (6882.50) and the daily pivot (6843.92).

The last four sessions have all closed in the top 80% of their range — a clean bullish sequence that shows sustained buying pressure and responsive buyers on every dip.

The 6850 VAH / 6848 VWAP +2σ band directly below is the key near-term level. Holding above it keeps the bull case intact and opens a run at the session high (6876) and composite VAH (6882.50). A clean break and close above 6882.50 would put the market in excess to the upside, with little resistance until the 6903–6927 pivot cluster.

On the downside, the first meaningful support is the 6834 balance target and 6812–6792 zone, where the 38.2% retrace, Pivot S1, and today's POC all converge. That is a high-confidence buy zone on any pullback. Below there, the 6773 18D MA and 6766 40D MA form a second defensive layer before the VWAP +1σ at 6740.

The composite POC at 6630 and VWAP at 6633 remain the gravitational center of the entire 31-session range. Price is trading 230 points above fair value — extended but not broken.

As long as the 6792–6812 support cluster holds on any retest, the bias stays bullish and the path of least resistance is toward the 6900s.

Watch the 6848–6850 zone on any early weakness. Lose it and you likely test 6834 balance. Hold it and the session high gets taken out.

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Founder's Note:

Futures are flat ahead of CPI this morning, with ES at 6,860. Trump said overnight that Iran isn't upholding the ceasefire, but the market has largely shrugged it off — oil is stable at 99 and VIX closed at 19.5 yesterday.

The bigger story is how quickly this market has repositioned. SPX closed at 6,825 yesterday — up 240 points from last Tuesday's pre-deal lows. VIX has been cut nearly 1/3 from 26 to 19.5 in two sessions. And yesterday's PM note captured the mechanism: 25k contracts of 0DTE 6,830 calls drove HIRO to +$8B — the strongest positive reading in 30 days. Dealer hedging created a reflexive bid that pushed the 6,830 calls from $1 to $10 in an hour. That's the 0DTE gamma machine working at full speed.

For today we have a +99th %'ile strike at 6,800, and it would take major news and/or a big CPI miss to drive the SPX down and away from that strike.

CPI is the event today. The market is priced for a benign print, with todays 0DTE SPX straddle a lowly $37/54bps (ref 6,825). VIX term structure is deflating, with front-end vol being sold aggressively. If CPI comes in hot, the vol unwind may reverse and this rally stalls at ~6,800. A cool print, and we likely grind up toward 6,850.

Interestingly, the SPX RV-VIX spread has swung to a VIX discount, meaning VIX at 19.5 vs SPX RV at 20 is now at or below trailing realized vol. This is meaningful: the market is pricing in calm that hasn't actually materialized in realized terms. If CPI disrupts, or the Iran peace reverses, VIX & equity vol has room to snap back.

We suspect, though, that things will edge toward "calm" and ignoring headlines until April OPEX next week - at which point headlines could drive more volatility. Given this, RV likely trends lower (smaller market moves) into next week.

While lower IVs make it cheaper to be a bear, the clear weight of positioning remains on the put side. You can see this via the 3rd chart (yellow) which shows median put-skew. That remains near 1 year highs vs call skew (4th, blue) which is near lows. Traders just don't seemed to be positioned at all for a strong rally - particularly in single stocks. Given this, we still like selling Index calls to fund Mag 7 calls, with NVDA & TSLA particularly interesting given their low IV ranks. This is not so much that we are making a bullish macro call, it's just the most reasonable position to carry given current dynamics.

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ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6851.75. This is the key pivot controlling intraday sentiment. Holding above this level keeps buyers in control, while acceptance back below it would shift momentum back to the downside.

Currently, ES is trading around 6867.75, slightly above the bull/bear line, indicating early strength during the Globex session. As long as price holds above 6851.75, dips into this level can be viewed as potential buying opportunities.

On the upside, resistance comes in at 6900.00, followed by 6932.25, which is the upper range target for today. A sustained move above 6932.25 opens the door for a continuation toward 6981.25 and potentially 7007.75. Acceptance into this higher range would signal strong bullish continuation.

On the downside, initial support sits at 6814.25, just below the bull/bear line. If price loses 6851.75 and starts holding below, expect a move toward 6771.25, which is the lower range target for today. A break below 6771.25 could extend the move further down into 6695.50, followed by 6594.75 and 6539.25.

Overall, the market is attempting to hold a bullish posture above 6851.75. Continued acceptance above this level favors upside continuation into 6932.25 and higher, while failure to hold will likely rotate price back into the lower range targets.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25195.50. This is the key level that defines intraday sentiment. Holding above this level keeps buyers in control, while losing it would shift momentum back to the downside.

Currently, NQ is trading around 25286.75, showing strength above the bull/bear line after a strong push higher. As long as price remains above 25195.50, dips are likely to be supported and can be viewed as buying opportunities.

On the upside, resistance comes in at 25569.50, which is the upper range target for today. A sustained move into this area would indicate continuation of the current bullish momentum. If price can build acceptance above 25569.50, it opens the door for further expansion higher.

On the downside, first support sits at 25056.75, followed by 24953.00. These are key areas where buyers may step in on a pullback. Below that, 24821.50 is the lower range target for today. A break and hold below this level would signal a deeper retracement, with 24469.50 as the next major support.

Overall, the market is showing bullish structure above 25195.50. As long as this level holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A loss of this level would shift focus back toward 24821.50 and lower, putting the broader move at risk.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, April 9, 2026

The session unfolded as a structured, educational, and opportunistic trading day, with a strong emphasis on understanding range conditions early and capitalizing on later breakout momentum.

Morning Context – Range & Patience

• Early discussion highlighted macro influences (Core PCE, oil strength, geopolitical headlines).

• The key theme from the open:

  • NQ likely in a range (MenthorQ straddle noted).

  • Defined range roughly 6820–6792.

• David and the group emphasized:

  • Understanding range boundaries

  • Trading within structure vs. anticipating breakouts

• Important mindset:

  • “Sandbox” environment → stay patient and avoid forcing trades.

Lesson:
When volatility compression and options positioning suggest a range, shift to controlled, level-to-level trading instead of trend chasing.

Mid-Morning – Structure & Execution

• Focus turned to:

  • Pivot highs

  • First pullback setups

  • Trading above the 50% level (premium vs discount context)

Key teaching points:

• First pullback = higher probability entry, especially when structure hasn’t broken.

• Awareness of A10 tests and extremes helped define exhaustion vs continuation.

• Market described as:

  • “Tug of war for direction” → reinforcing patience.

Lesson:
The first pullback in structure is often the cleanest trade—later entries carry more risk as the move matures.

Late Morning – Breakout & Momentum Shift

• Market transitioned from range → valid breakout

• David called:

  • Breakout holding highs

  • Expectation for continuation toward prior highs

• Confirmed by:

  • Strong volume breakout

This marked the key trade of the day:

• Breakout + hold + volume = momentum continuation setup

Lesson:
Not all breakouts are equal—volume + acceptance above range is what confirms continuation.

Afternoon – Execution & Community Wins

• Bruce executed a clean fade trade at the D-level

  • Recognized and praised by David and the room.

• Continued chart sharing reinforced:

  • Precision at levels

  • Execution discipline

Lesson:
Even on breakout days, level-based fades remain valid when properly identified.

Closing Context

• Market closed with:

  • $1.5B MOC Buy Imbalance

• Confirms:

  • Underlying bullish pressure into the close

Overall Takeaways

• Adapt to environment:

  • Range early → breakout later

• Patience pays:

  • Avoid forcing trades inside chop

• Execution focus:

  • First pullbacks = high probability

  • Breakouts need confirmation (volume + hold)

• Level clarity:

  • Defined ranges and key levels drove decisions

• Community edge:

  • Strong participation and shared learning (notably Bruce’s trade)

Big Picture

This was a textbook PTG day:

1. Identify the range

2. Trade structure carefully

3. Recognize the shift

4. Execute on confirmed momentum

A strong blend of discipline, patience, and timing led to quality opportunities.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, April 10, 2026

• Macro Focus: Iran tensions + 8:30am CPI. Strait of Hormuz closure and tanker tolls keeping geopolitics front and center; fragile ceasefire holds ahead of US–Iran talks. Oil-driven inflation pressures building, with broader food impacts likely delayed.

• Inflation Watch: CPI expected to reflect rising fuel costs; second-order effects (fertilizer/food) still ahead.

• Tech/AI: TSMC strong (+35% rev) signals AI demand intact, though supply chain disruptions could delay investment. Earnings April 16.

• SpaceX: IPO chatter (~$1.75T valuation) amid reports of large losses; heavy media focus.

• Volatility: Contracting but still headline-driven. ES range cooling (5-day ADR ~102.75).

• Positioning: Whale bias slightly bearish into CPI on light volume.

• ES Technicals:

  • Resistance: 6866–6869 (trendline) → break opens 6900s

  • Support: 6624–6629

  • Strong close above 50DMA (6811) = short-term bullish

  • 50DMA / 200DMA (~6792) converging → key pivot zone ~6800

• Key Data Today:

  • CPI (8:30am ET)

  • UoM Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (10am ET)

Bottom Line: Market coiled ahead of CPI with geopolitics driving sentiment. Bulls need a clean break above trendline; bears have room lower if data disappoints.