Our Lean

If you are looking for me to suggest a turning point, I'm sorry to say that is not in my playbook.

Did Trump have a master plan when he snatched Muduo from Venezuela and redirected oil sales away from Russia and China to the US and India, and then attacked Iran and halted oil sales to China, which has been involved in a giant trade war since his first term? Clearly, Trump has been involved in a shock-and-awe program, but the question is... has it gone too far?

One thing that we know for sure is that both actions have served as a reminder to China of U.S. military capabilities just before he travels to China (March 31-April 2). We already know that there will be discussions on tariffs, possible grain deals, and an order from China to buy 200 aircraft from Boeing. Remember, China is Iran's top oil buyer, and I suspect there could be other discussions on ending the Russia / Ukraine war and how to defuse the war in the Middle East.

Again, I can't rule out some dead cat rallies, but with the war raging on in the Middle East, there should be more risk-off today going into the weekend. I also tried to explain how the rollover can increase volatility, and the best way I can describe it is to think of it like two candy stores selling at once. I'll ask @HandelStats to run his study on the ESH/ESM spread and how to trade it, which has been extremely good at picking the direction.

Our lean: I tried to buy yesterday's open and it didn't work. While there was a double pump, I didn't catch it, but FRYday, the week two options expiration gap-down, should be different, as they have a much higher probability of working — but it's also counter-trending.

My guess is that there is going to be a much larger two-way flow, and one of my rules is that after a big down day, the ES tends to rally on Globex. We shall see!

We are holding a webinar tomorrow at 10:30 CT, 11:30 ET. I really think it's going to be a good one because of the lineup.

David Dube and Manny will lead it off, followed by The Crude Oil Man Reverie, who is a stellar energy trader. In the number three spot is Rich from @Handle Stats, who will be going over two important studies.

Here is the link: From the Pit to Your Screen: MRTOPSTEP’S Next Chapter

Market Profile & Value Area Integration

In Market Profile, the Value Area (VA) represents the price range where 70% of the day’s volume (or TPOs) occurred. Based on your provided High ($6,711.75$), Low ($6,671.00$), and Latest ($6,707.75$), here is the integrated overlay.

Revised Levels Table (Integrated)

6,867.85 – 38.2% Retracement From 13 Week High
... [Intermediate Resistance Levels] ...
6,740.75 – Pivot Point 1st Resistance Point
6,711.75 – Session High
6,708.50 – Value Area High (VAH) (Area of potential supply)
6,707.75 – Latest Price
6,706.25 – Pivot Point
6,698.25 – Point of Control (POC) (High-volume attraction node)
6,684.00 – Value Area Low (VAL) (First line of defense for bulls)
6,677.50 – Previous Close
6,671.00 – Session Low
6,668.03 – Target Price
6,643.00 – Pivot Point 1st Support Point

Tactical Observations

The “Value” Tightness:
The current price ($6,707.75$) is trading right at the Value Area High. If the price holds above $6,708.50$, it signals a “Value Area Breakout,” suggesting a trend toward the $6,732 – 6,740$ resistance zone.

The Pivot/POC Confluence:
The Pivot Point ($6,706.25$) is very close to the POC ($6,698.25$). This $8$-point zone is the most critical rotational area. If price falls back into this zone, expect choppy, two-sided trading.

The Gap to Support:
There is a significant technical gap between the Session Low ($6,671.00$) and the 1st Support Point ($6,643.00$). If the Value Area Low ($6,684.00$) fails, the move down could be rapid until it hits that $6,643$ pivot.

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

The stock market tumbled on Thursday as oil prices surged, with WTI crude trading around $96.22 (+9.87%) at the time of writing. SPX closed at 6,673 (-1.52%), finishing below the Put Wall at 6,700.

QQQ and IWM both showed relative weakness. QQQ closed at 597 (-1.72%), also below the Put Wall of 600. IWM closed at 247 (-2.15%), also below the Put Wall of 250.

The volatility complex spiked too, as VIX closed at 27.28 (+12.63%), and VVIX closed at 130.18 (+6.28%). Now VIX closed above the Key Gamma Strike/Call Wall of 25, where dealer short gamma is in play. The fact that VIX and VVIX closed at high of the day showed potential gamma squeeze risk to the upside. 

The 99th percentile 0DTE GEX strike at 6670 provided support for the day.

When toggling to 0DTE Net OI, we can see the positions responsible for the day’s 0DTE gamma exposure. A 0DTE iron condor centered around 6,670 and 6,810 opened again around 10:00am ET. These positions appeared more complex than the prior iron condor structures observed earlier in the week.

S&P 500 HIRO finished at -$1.4bn on the day, driven by -$6.7bn in 0DTE call selling partially offset by +$4.2bn in 0DTE put selling. The net negative reading indicates that options flows applied modest downside pressure, with market makers acting as net sellers on the day.

Although 0DTE volatility sellers attempted to compress intraday volatility, fixed strike volatility still rose during the session. SPX ATM implied volatility is currently around 26%. Using the Rule of 16, this suggests the options market is pricing roughly a 1.6% implied move for tomorrow’s PCE and GDP data releases.

As mentioned in Monday’s AM Note, there remains a significant premium between VIX (~27) and one-month SPX realized volatility (~11). Normally this spread is closer to 3.5 points, but it is currently around 16 points, suggesting traders are paying a meaningful premium for volatility.

Notable flows of the day:
We saw 28k lots IWM March 240 puts selling for $1.64 on the Tape, as traders seemed to unwind some of the hedges. We also noticed 12k lots IWM March 236 puts traded for $2.05, seems a put roll but need to confirm via FlowPatrol tomorrow AM.

As we saw more private credit headlines, we also noticed some LQD puts, along with the HYG puts mentioned yesterday. 77k lots March LQD March 108 puts traded for $0.3, which also need to be confirmed via FlowPatrol tomorrow AM.

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BTS Trading Levels - (Premium Only)

ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6694.75. This level is the key pivot for today’s session and will determine directional bias. Holding above this level keeps the market in a short-term bullish posture, while acceptance back below it would shift momentum back to the downside.

ES is currently trading around 6704.75, slightly above the bull/bear line after a volatile overnight session. As long as price remains above 6694.75, buyers may attempt to stabilize the market and push higher toward resistance levels at 6769.50 and 6778.75, which is the upper intraday range target. A sustained push above 6778.75 would open the door for a stronger recovery move toward 6857.75.

If the market loses 6694.75, downside pressure could quickly return. Initial support sits at 6677.50, followed by 6671.75. A break and hold below these levels would likely target the lower range level at 6610.75. If sellers gain control beneath that level, further downside expansion could develop toward 6531.75.

Overall, 6694.75 is the key decision level. Above it, the market has room to retrace higher toward 6769.50 and 6778.75. Below it, the structure remains vulnerable with downside targets at 6677.50, 6671.75, and potentially 6610.75.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 24629.50. This level is the key pivot for today's session. Holding above it keeps the market biased to the upside, while losing it would signal that sellers remain in control.

NQ is currently trading around 24657.00, slightly above the bull/bear line and near the moving average around 24655.25. As long as price holds above 24629.50, buyers may attempt to stabilize the market and push toward the overhead resistance zone.

The first resistance area comes in near 24934.50 to 24949.25, which marks the prior session's open and high area. A break above this zone opens the door for a move toward 25000.75, which is the upper intraday range target. If momentum continues beyond that level, the next major resistance sits at 25350.

On the downside, losing 24629.50 would likely shift sentiment bearish for the session. Initial support below comes in at 24560, followed by 24517.75. If these levels fail to hold, the market could extend lower toward 24258.25, which is the lower intraday range target for today.

Overall, the market is attempting to stabilize just above the bull/bear line after the sharp overnight volatility. Holding above 24629.50 keeps recovery potential alive toward 24934.50 and 25000.75, while trading back below it would likely lead to renewed downside pressure toward 24560 and potentially 24258.25.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, March 12, 2026

Market Context

Cycle Day 3 environment with the 6841.63 objective already achieved earlier in the cycle.
Focus shifted from aggressive directional trading to reading tape and protecting the positive 3-day cycle outcome.

Market condition expected:

• Rotation

• Balance repair

• Possible volatility expansion

Key mindset: Let the market reveal intent.

Key Pivot

6750 ±5 – Line in the Sand

This level determined directional bias for the session.

Bull Scenario (Did Not Materialize)

Acceptance above 6750 could have produced upside continuation.

Upside objectives:

• 6770

• 6785

• 6795

Condition required:

• Buyers maintaining value above pivot.

Market failed to accept above pivot, cancelling the bull thesis.

Bear Scenario (Primary Outcome)

Failure to hold 6750 opened the door for rotation lower.

Downside objectives:

• 6730

• 6715

• 6695

Price gradually rotated lower during the morning session and tagged the 6695 target, aligning with:

• DTS downside projection

• Cycle Day 1 average decline zone 6695–6688

Key Trade Themes

BLT Trade Structure

The room identified a classic BLT setup as weakness developed near highs.

This provided opportunity for:

• short rotation trades

• fading failed upside attempts.

Dynamic Level / RSPR Discussion

Dan shared execution insights for dynamic level trades.

Key notes:

• Limit entries at dynamic levels

• 161.8 extension can serve as stop reference

• Pivot + ~1 point also effective risk parameter.

Profit Management Insight

High-probability behavior observed:

Many D-Level responses stall inside the 25%–75% retracement zone.

Implication for trade management:

• 25% zone = strong first scale target

• Deeper penetration often signals true reversal instead of stall

Excellent trade management concept shared with the room.

Structural Market Notes

Important reminders from the session:

• 3rd test of a level often breaks

• Liquidity grabs occur near obvious levels

• Confluence improves trade confidence

• Stay aligned with the Dominant Force

Closing Observation

Despite a $627M MOC buy imbalance, the market closed near session lows, which David noted was not constructive for bulls heading into the next session.

Playbook Lesson of the Day

Preparation > Prediction

The roadmap given in the morning briefing played out cleanly.

Traders who followed the plan had:

• clear pivot

• defined downside targets

• structured trade opportunities

The key edge remains:

Patience + Level Discipline + Risk Management

DTG Room Preview – Friday, March 13, 2026

• Geopolitics in focus: Middle East tensions remain the primary market driver as the Iran conflict enters day 13 with increasingly aggressive rhetoric from both sides. No clear signs of de-escalation.
  

• Oil surge: Brent crude has jumped roughly 9% and is back above $100, despite US and European strategic reserve releases. Iran has threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, raising supply concerns.
  

• Rates pressure: 30-year Treasury yields are again approaching 5%, forming a multi-year pennant pattern that could resolve higher. Each move toward 5% has recently triggered short-term equity weakness.
  

• Flight-to-safety absent: Despite geopolitical stress, Treasuries are not catching a safety bid, suggesting investors demand higher compensation to hold long-duration government debt.
  

• Mag 7 weakness: Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla are nearing 10% correction territory from October highs, weighing on the Nasdaq 100.
  

• Economic data focus: A packed calendar due to delayed releases from the government shutdown, including Core PCE, GDP, Durable Goods, and Personal Income/Spending (8:30 ET) followed by JOLTS and Michigan Sentiment (10:00 ET).
  

• Volatility: ES volatility eased slightly but remains elevated with a 5-day average range of ~128.5 points.
  

• Positioning: Overnight large trader flow was light and mixed, leaving no clear whale bias.
  

• ES technicals: Futures continue to trade sideways within a short-term downtrend channel.
  

• Key pivot: ES closed below the 200-day MA (~6700) for the first time since May. The level acted as overnight support (~6697.50) but could become longer-term resistance.
  

• Trendlines: Short-term downtrend channels likely less relevant today, giving both bulls and bears room to operate.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 6935/30s, 7250/55s

• Support: 6537/32s