By Danny Riley

The NQ has closed higher six sessions in a row, up 917 points, or +3.00%, and yesterday made a new contract high at 31,616.50, taking out the old 31,385.50 high from June 3. The ES traded up to 7897.50, just 7.50 points shy of its 7905.00 contract high.

Today is the September Fed minutes, and the big question is... can the ES rally 5 days in a row, and can the NQ make it 7 in a row? What we know is several Fed officials now favor waiting for more data before hiking again. A hawkish group still believes rates may need to rise further if inflation remains persistent, so while an October hike looks less likely, another increase later this year is still possible. I'm kind of out of it. I didn't think the Fed would raise rates in September despite the overwhelming odds saying they would. Do I think there are two more rate hikes this year? No, but I do think there will be another one, which brings us back to today at 2:00 p.m. ET. Hopefully, today we will get a better feel for the Fed's direction.

Polaris Trading Group — S&P 500 (ES)

By David · October 7, 2026

New: PTG Trading Room Recordings

We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be raw, unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos.

Cycle Day 2 Expectations

• The balance process begins.

• Range development starts to take shape.

• Buyers and sellers square off for control.

• Reversal potential quietly increases.

In other words, Cycle Day 1 established the key low at 7829. Cycle Day 2 installs the shock absorbers.

This is where the market says: “Alright… everybody calm down… let’s figure this thing out.”

And for PTG traders? That’s your cue to shift gears:

• Less emotion.

• More structure.

• Cleaner, more deliberate opportunities.

No need to force trades. No need to chase moves. Just stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the market come to you.

Cycle Day 2 objective: Balance. Consolidate.

Stay Patient. Stay Disciplined. Stay PTG.

Scenarios in Play

Bull Case — Buyers Stabilize & Reclaim

Acceptance above: 7880 ±5.

Upside objectives:

• 7895

• 7905

• 7915

This signals responsive buying evolving into initiative control. But remember: this is recovery mode — not dominance yet.

Bear Case — Continued Rotation / Controlled Reset

Acceptance below: 7880 ±5.

Downside objectives:

• 7865

• 7855

• 7845

This is not panic selling. This is orderly distribution… the kind that grinds traders down.

Key Reference Levels

• PVA High Edge: 7886

• PVA Low Edge: 7881

• Prior POC: 7875

• Cycle Day 1 Low: 7829

Important: These levels cluster tightly — forming a decision zone, not noise.

Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG. Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the dollar risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

Learn more about Polaris Trading Group.

Tuesday’s ES session opened at 7831.75 and held the 7829.00 Globex low around 8:00 p.m. ET Monday. Buyers carried it through the prior 7847.50 high, and the overnight session reached 7867.75 before handing off at 7862.75. That was a 31.00-point Globex gain on volume of 219,572 contracts. The advance had a foundation before the cash bell; the question was how much more buyers could get after the opening inventory had already leaned long.

The cash session opened at 7862.50. ES pushed through 7885 in the 10:05 a.m. five-minute interval, backed down toward 7869 in the 10:25 interval, then rebuilt the rally. The session high of 7897.50 came in the 11:25 interval. The afternoon could not keep all that extension. ES was 7875.25 at the 3:50 p.m. snapshot, and the final cash-session five-minute close was 7873.00. The separate 4:00 p.m. last-trade snapshot was 7874.50; Tuesday’s official settlement was 7874.00.

Cleanup brought a recovery to 7880.50 at 5:00 p.m. Full-session volume from the five-minute series totaled 1,196,796; official cleared volume was separately reported at 1,359,089. NQ reached 31,616.50, closed its cash session at 31,480.75 and finished the full session at 31,501.00, up 154.25 from its session open. Its official settlement was 31,483.25.

In the end, the ES closed higher for the 4th day in a row. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was firm, but there was also a small selloff late in the day. In terms of the ES's overall trade, total volume was lower at 1.197 million contracts traded.

October 6 MOC: Sellers Pressed, Then the Imbalance Faded

The sell side carried Tuesday’s closing auction. The All Markets snapshot showed a $2.8B sell imbalance at the open, with $2.0B to buy against $4.7B to sell across 684 symbols. Dollar lean was 70.8% toward the sell side, but the symbol count was almost evenly split: 344 buys against 340 sells. The dollars were doing the talking.

The imbalance eased to $2.2B sell at 15:52, then sellers loaded up again. It widened to $3.2B at 15:53, $4.3B at 15:54 and $5.0B at 15:55, the largest net sell reading in the displayed minute series. At that point, $6.7B of sell interest faced $1.7B of buy interest. The pressure then backed off to $2.7B to sell at 15:56, $1.9B at 15:58 and $579.0M at 16:00. It stayed sell throughout; the late shrinkage was no flip to a buy imbalance.

In the selected 15:51 snapshot, Microsoft led the sell list at $314.1M, followed by Apple at $267.6M, Alphabet at $265.2M, and Nvidia at $202.0M. Micron topped the buy list at $187.7M, with Thermo Fisher at $57.2M, and NextEra at $49.6M.

Technology carried roughly $1.4B of net selling in that snapshot, while utilities showed $280.7M of net buying. For the floor trader’s read, size leaned heavily against the technology complex even with the early symbol count mixed. By the final snapshot, the net sell amount was much smaller, but the auction had never crossed to the buy side.

Economic Calendar

Source: Federal Reserve October calendar.

Earnings Calendar

Polaris Trading Group

Polaris Trading Group’s October 6 review followed an overnight breakout into a morning target, then a reversal toward two-way trade. David’s emphasis was to stay aligned with the dominant force while recognizing where the first expansion could stall.

Breakout and target

• The overnight plan used 7830 as its line in the sand. Room commentary reported a move through the prior 7847.50 high toward the 7860 objective.

• At 10:02 a.m. ET, David identified 7880–7885 as the next target zone; at 10:10 a.m., he reported 7885 fulfilled.

Reversal and risk

• By 10:29 a.m., David described a reversal from 7885 and kept shorts in play. After the initial balance formed, he expected increased two-way traffic.

• One contributor’s larger 7950 weekly objective remained conditional on defending the breakout and accepting higher prices; it was not a confirmed result or group consensus.

October 6 PTG trade strategy

DTG Room Preview

The DTG group’s October 7 premarket preview favors a cautious approach to a breakout that still needs support from buyers. The group is watching oil, Treasury yields and the 2:00 p.m. ET Fed minutes for changes in the risk backdrop.

Backdrop and catalysts

• The room’s view balances technology strength against energy and rate risk. It expects early chop and headline-driven movement rather than an easy one-way session.

• The group reported no meaningful large-trader overnight bias because the volume it observed was too light.

ES map

• On the group’s back-adjusted chart basis, 7812/7807 is potential support and 7997/8000 is resistance. Deeper support zones are 7689/7694 and 7410/7415.

• The group lists the 50-day moving average at 7758.25 as loose support. These chart references use the source’s adjustment basis and should not be equated directly with an unadjusted continuous-contract level.