From Collapse to Comeback: ES 450-Point Reversal

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You know that old saying, "You can't make this stuff up?" Well, you can’t! The ES and NQ were unhinged. I think we can all agree that we’ve never seen anything like what we’ve been seeing—like the 419-point rally in less that 30 minutes, or for that matter, the 210-point drop last Wednesday when Trump announced the new tariffs.

I compare this to the credit crisis but 5x. The bots have taken over, and it’s non-stop. The PitBull called me while the ES was making its Sunday night move—he had big positions on and said, “I need your help. What do you think of the ES?” I said I think they go back to 5120, that the ES went down too much, too fast.

I'm not sure why they really rallied 454.5 points up to 5286.50, but this was part of it: HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA. Bill Ackman did a tweet saying he thought it would be a good idea to give a 90-day reprieve, so it was already built into the price action.

After the rally really kicked into gear, the ES was moving in 10- and 15- to 20-point clips. Like I said yesterday, there are no ticks—it's points, and a lot of them. In order to buy, you had to step up 10 points, and even then the ES was already above the price.

The VIX made its high on the open at 60.13. You could feel how everything was pinned down and that something was going to give, and there was over 1 million ES traded on Globex. After some big ups and downs, the ES and NQ sold off late and then started to rally again. It was an amazing day of huge up and down moves, but it didn't go without some headlines along the way, and here are just a few:

• A bogus rumor that President Donald Trump was considering a pause in tariffs briefly lifted markets Monday before the White House shot down the unfounded reports.

• The Trump administration is quietly debating the creation of a new exporter tax credit, a move that signals growing internal concern over the economic costs of the White House’s sweeping tariff policies.

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Trump will be directly involved in Japan trade talks.

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Maybe 70 countries have approached the US by now on trade.

• Trump: “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th.”

• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns we are entering a period of “considerable turbulence,” and today's decisions may determine which companies sink or swim.

This is just a small example of the headlines—they were fairly constant throughout the day. After the late pullback and a $1.3 million buy imbalance, the ES rallied 58 points.