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From Bonds to ES: Nothing Sticks, Everything Slips — Classic Two-Way Slop Trade
Danny Riley
March 26, 2026
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Our View
I started writing about bonds and notes, but I want to go back to it. The yield on the 10-year fell to 4.326%, while two-year yields fell to 3.880%. I want you to give this link a hard look: Barchart: 10-Year T-Note.
In the last 3 months, the 10-year note is down 3.36% and has fallen 11 out of the last 14 sessions. And the bond futures (ZBM6) have been down 12 out of the last 18 sessions, but are sitting just above a critical level at 110.00.
Below is the 20-year chart of the bonds, and as you can see, under 110.00 is the 105 level set back in the 2007-2008 credit crisis
Our Lean
I was not impressed with the ES’s price action yesterday; it seemed like all the rallies failed. That said, it doesn't mean they can't rally again, but any sustained rally is going to require concrete proof that the US / Iran negotiations are making progress.
Our lean: As volume drops, I can’t rule out some type of thin-to-win type trade. While there were some good rallies to sell yesterday, there were also some good dips to buy. My guess is we could see more of the same today.
I’m too beat to do the levels, but 6685–6690, 6700–6720, and 6750 should be solid resistance, and 6620 to 6590 should be good support.
Guest Posts:
Dan @ GTC Traders
Why We Trade in Longer Periodicities, and Test for Robustness
There is … we won’t call it a ‘debate’ among traders. But we’ll call it ‘definite lines of thought’ on this topic. Some think one way. Some think another.
Some traders prefer to be in and out of trades within the same day, or 12 hour period. Then they are then ‘flat cash’ and can go about their day unencumbered by what happens, or the risk in markets when they are away from their desk.
We do understand that line of thought. The problem (as I personally discovered in 2012), is that there are times in your life when you have to be away from the trading desk for long periods of time. For example, in 2012 I was struck with a prolonged illness.
And when that happens, I couldn’t trade. Which means I wasn’t making money. Which means it became more difficult to pay bills, as my ‘burn rate’ was rather high. It was about that time out of sheer necessity that I started to develop Quantitative Grey Box Models and programs that traded in the Equities. So that they could be of a longer periodicity. In Equities, without the leverage it is much easier to be in a trade for 20 days.
But I also had to make sure they were robust. Or ‘tough’ to last in any market. It took a lot of study and attention and testing to make sure the programs I used, were tough enough.
Because 2012 … and life … taught me an important lesson. I wanted to make sure that if something like ‘2012’ happened to me again? Even if I was away from the desk for a period of time? That the models and programs I used would both …
Continue to make money
Could make money with easy
Would not require a ton of attention
Were robust enough, or ‘tough’ enough to handle such parameters
And unique enough to not simply be “buying the SPY”
Why am I talking about this?
As I have mentioned in some streams, the other night as I was looking for a bit cheaper gas, a girl in a Honda plowed into me doing 45 MPH.
It’s pretty much wrecked much of my week trading. There’s the old car that the insurance company is going to total out. So I have to go to the wreckers yard, and clear out the car of all our possessions. Oh, and then I forgot a wrench to take the old license plate off. So we had to drive all the way back to the house, get a wrench, drive back to the wreckers yard to take the plate off. Then it’s off to the doctors appointments for injuries.
Needless to say, my attention has been diverted away from trading
All I’m saying?
Is take this old traders bit of advice?
Make sure you have something? Perhaps longer periodicity and quite robust? That doesn’t need as much attention, and still makes you money.
Even in this environment.
Until next time, stay safe and trade well.
Market Recap:
The ES made a low of 6634.75 and a high of 6681.50 on Globex, with 345k futures traded, and opened the day session at 6661.75, up 15.25 points or +0.23%.
After the open, the ES rallied up to 6684.75, then sold off down to 6631.25 at 10:00. It stutter-stepped up to 6667.50 at 10:50, then sold off to the 6616.50 level at 11:15. The ES rallied up to 6657.50, traded down to 6634.50 at 12:05, and then rallied up to 6658.25.
The ES sold off down to 6644.00 at 1:10, rallied up to 6669.50 at 1:40, then traded down to 6648.50, rallied up to 6660.50 at 2:15, and sold off down to 6630.50 at 3:00. This was followed by another rally up to 6648.50 at 3:20, a pullback to 6632.50 at 3:35, and another trade up to 6641.50 at 3:40.
The ES traded 6636.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $700 million to buy, rallied up to 6645.50 at 3:55, and traded 6642.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 6647.25, then down to 6634.50, back up to 6641.74, and settled at 6640.75, up 34.75 points or +0.53%. The NQ settled at 24,367.75, up 154 points or +0.64%, the YM settled at 46,711, up 296 points or +0.64%, and the RTY settled at 2551.80, up 29.50 points or +1.17% on the day.
In the end, it was a big trip to nowhere. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it acted OK, but it also felt like it was a Trump reality check day, as Iran continued to deny negotiations. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at 1.64 million contracts traded.
Everything is hyper-focused on the Iran talks, or the lack of them. While they say Iran is privately showing a willingness to hear out diplomatic efforts to end the war, Iranian state media continue to reject the U.S. proposal to end the war. Yet the energy markets seem to be viewing the progress positively.
I’m sorry, but I can’t do a larger OP because I have the flu, and it has totally kicked my ass.
MiM
The MOC session opened with a clear buy-side bias, but the underlying structure quickly revealed a more complex and ultimately weaker close. At 15:50, the market started with a modest -$181M imbalance, entirely sell-driven, before aggressively flipping into buy territory by 15:51 with +$609M. This early shift established a bid that peaked around 15:54 at +$978M, supported by consistent buy programs near $4B versus roughly $3B in sell flow.
However, this strength proved unsustainable. From 15:55 onward, the tape sharply reversed, with sell pressure accelerating into the close. By 15:59, the imbalance deteriorated to -$1.33B, before settling at -$571M into the 16:00 print. The late-session % readings consistently pushed beyond -50%, and notably reached as extreme as -66% to -68%, signaling a wholesale shift to market-on-close sell programs rather than rotational activity.
Sector flows reinforced this transition. Early leadership came from Technology (+77.5%), Communication Services (+76.3%), and Basic Materials (+59.9%), all showing strong buy-side conviction. Semiconductors in particular were heavily accumulated, with NVDA (+$418M), AVGO (+$357M), and AAPL (+$273M) leading the charge. These are decisive buy imbalances, not rotational, indicating institutional demand early in the window.
Conversely, the sell-side was dominated by Consumer Defensive (-80.6%), Energy (-72.8%), and Real Estate (-75.0%), all exceeding the -66% threshold—clear signs of liquidation rather than repositioning. Names like PG, XOM, and ABBV highlight broad-based distribution across defensive and commodity-linked sectors.
Importantly, many sectors clustered near the -50% to -60% range (Financials, Industrials, Healthcare), suggesting rotational unwinds layered on top of the more aggressive sell programs.
Index-level data reflects this divergence. While the Nasdaq showed a strong +77.3% buy skew, the NYSE printed -64.2%, confirming that the broader market was being sold into strength in tech. The S&P 500 closed with a positive imbalance (+$564M), but with a -55.7% lean, underscoring internal rotation rather than outright strength.
In summary, this was a two-phase MOC: early institutional accumulation in growth/tech, followed by broad liquidation into the close, with sell programs ultimately dominating the tape.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for March 26, 2026
S&P: 49.01
NQ: 208.4
Dow: 279.29
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, March 25, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 70% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 69 / 84
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 86 / 205
• NYSE TRIN: 1.03
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.88
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, March 20, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 29% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 155 / 291
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 194 / 716
• NYSE TRIN: 0.53
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.48
S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)
BTS are daily generated levels created using a combination of proprietary calculations and AI to define an upper range target and a lower range target, split by a bull/bear line. You receive daily charts along with clear descriptions of each level to help guide your trading.
Take a Free Premium Trial to see them in action.
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Recent
Trading Room News:
PTG Room Summary – March 18, 2026, March 25, 2026
The day developed largely in line with expectations, with a range-bound environment early on that rewarded patience and disciplined positioning.
Morning Session – Range Expectations & Early Lean
The room quickly aligned on a range day thesis, with multiple traders calling it out pre-market.
David identified an early long lean advantage, giving traders a directional bias within the broader range structure.
This set the tone: not a trend-chasing day, but one to work edges and manage expectations.
Key takeaway: When the environment is expected to be rotational, having a slight directional lean (like early long bias) can provide an edge without overcommitting.
Mid-Morning – Education, Tools & Psychology
The session transitioned into a highly valuable teaching and discussion period:
Discussion around tools (PKB, Sierra Chart integration, timeframes) helped traders refine their process.
Strong emphasis on trading psychology:
“Failure teaches one to be wise”
Framing trading costs as “therapy” or learning investment
Conversations around:
Daily loss limits
Whether profit targets make sense in a probability-based business
Realistic expectations for annual returns (R multiples)
Performance & Mindset Insights
Traders discussed backtesting vs. live results, highlighting skepticism when results seem “too good.”
David reinforced realism around expectations—important for avoiding overconfidence and system breakdown.
Afternoon / Close – Market Structure & Outlook
MOC Buy imbalance: +675M → supportive into the close.
David summarized:
Positive 3-day cycle completed, with targets exceeded
Followed by 2-day consolidation
Forward Plan:
Today = New Cycle Day 1
Focus: Breakout from consolidation → directional resolution
Overall Day Summary
Solid read on range conditions
Effective use of directional lean (long bias early)
Strong educational session on psychology, risk, and expectations
Market closed with bullish order flow (MOC buy) and completed cycle
Core Lessons Reinforced
Align with market condition first (range vs trend)
Psychology is a major edge—how you frame losses matters
Targets are secondary to execution quality
Cycles matter—recognize completion and reset expectations
Stay realistic even when data looks exceptional
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, March 26, 2026
Macro Focus: Markets are watching Middle East tensions, potential Iran Strait of Hormuz tolls, and Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am ET).
Sentiment: Futures show cautious optimism, but recession concerns persist as elevated oil prices weigh on consumers. Oil risk premium has eased slightly for now.
Geopolitics: Iran is moving to formalize control over Hormuz with potential vessel tolls (reportedly up to $2M), adding uncertainty to global energy flows.
Inflation Pressure: USPS announced an 8% rate hike effective April 26, citing fuel costs—highlighting broader inflationary impact from energy.
Tech Theme: Memory/storage stocks sold off after Google introduced a new AI compression method (“TurboQuant”), though longer-term demand could still rise (Jevons Paradox).
Earnings: AEG (premarket); CCL (Friday).
Volatility: Contracting but still elevated; ES avg range ~136 pts. Large moves unlikely without new geopolitical developments.
Positioning: Slight bearish whale bias into claims data on light volume.
Levels to Watch (ES):
Resistance: 6672/67 (trendline), 6751/46, 6925/20, 200-day MA ~6771
Support: 6405/00
Downtrend channel remains intact; bulls need a break above 6672 to shift momentum.
