Friday’s Rebound Faces a Breadth Test | September 28 Opening Print

Friday’s rebound brought the bid back, but I’m not ready to call it an all-clear. Combined upside volume was 52% and advancing issues 53% on the day, while only 38% of issues advanced for the week. That’s a better close after a rough stretch, not yet broad sponsorship. If the same big technology names do all the heavy lifting again, the rest of the board needs to catch up or the paper may start selling the rip.

The bond market gets a vote here. The trading-room note flags elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar: if those keep tightening the screws, expensive growth stocks have a tougher job carrying the indexes by themselves. Monday’s Dallas Fed manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m. ET and the New York Fed’s public-policy survey at 11:00 a.m. ET give traders fresh reads before the heavier inflation and growth data later in the week. Watch the reaction in yields and sector leadership, not just the headline number.

There is geopolitical paper on the blotter, too. U.S.–China trade and chip-policy headlines can turn the technology bid in a hurry; treat talk of a deal as talk until its terms are confirmed. In energy, the EIA’s September outlook still expects constraints on Middle Eastern oil exports despite gradually improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That makes Gulf developments and crude a live input to inflation expectations and rates. I wouldn’t price a smooth resolution into the open.

My read is a two-way market until the rally broadens. I want to see Nasdaq leadership accompanied by more advancing stocks and a steadier bond market; that would say real money is bidding beyond a handful of names. If yields and oil push higher while breadth rolls over, Friday’s recovery can get offered fast, especially into quarter-end positioning. The last accessible futures bar is from 11:25 p.m. ET Sunday, so refresh the tape before attaching a Monday morning price to either scenario

Our approach is to begin with the 7796.00 BTS bull/bear line. The last accessible ES bar closed at 7776.00 at 11:25 p.m. ET Sunday, below that pivot. For a long, I want a fresh move back through 7796.00, a retest that holds, and then evidence of buyers through the early 7803.00 Globex high. Friday’s 7814.75 high is the next hurdle; above it sit 7841.00 and R1 at 7883.50.

If ES remains below 7796.00 and rallies keep failing there, I would sell a clean rejection rather than chase the first downtick. The accessible overnight low is 7773.75. Below that, the 7751.00 lower range line is near Friday’s 7752.75 cash low; S1 is 7708.75. Keep size modest around the 10:30 and 11:00 a.m. ET releases and wait for their first reaction to settle.

The September 25 market-on-close (MOC) imbalance opened at $3.04 billion to buy as the symbol count expanded to 680.

Buying strengthened to a $3.52 billion peak at 3:53 p.m., with $5.13 billion in buy orders against $1.62 billion in sells. From there, the buy imbalance steadily faded. It fell below $2.2 billion by 3:55 p.m., reached $850 million at 3:59 p.m., and finished at $391 million at the close. Buy dollars still led, but the symbol lean ended at 55.7% to sell. That split points to concentrated buying alongside more widespread selling.

Technology and communication services carried much of the buying. Technology posted a $1.27 billion net buy imbalance, led by names including NVDA, AAPL, INTC and MSFT. Communication services added $886 million, with META and both Alphabet share classes among the largest buys. NVDA’s $428 million net buy imbalance was the biggest listed. META followed at $354 million, while GOOGL drew $317 million. Communication services’ 96.2% dollar buy lean was particularly strong, as was technology’s 80.7%.

The sell side included SPCX at $181 million, CRM at $79 million and AVGO at $77 million. Financials showed the session’s mixed character: a $160 million net buy imbalance by dollars, yet a 51.5% sell lean by symbol count. Real estate and materials finished net to sell, while basic materials showed a 100% sell lean across only one symbol. The MOC closed with buyers ahead in dollars, but with a far narrower lead than the midafternoon surge suggested.

How to read the MIM

How the NYSE and Nasdaq Auctions Work
How the NYSE and Nasdaq Auctions Work

BTS Levels - (Premium Only)

Monday, September 28, all times ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30 a.m.; New York Fed SCE Public Policy Survey at 11:00 a.m. The New York Fed schedule places the heavier GDP and personal-income releases on Wednesday.

Earnings Calendar

No S&P 500 earnings report is confirmed in today’s assembled copy. Other, smaller companies may report; check the company calendar if a broader earnings list is needed. Carnival’s earnings call is scheduled for Tuesday, September 29.

Polaris Trading Group Summary Friday, September 25, 2026

Friday was a quiet PTG session centered on discipline and capital preservation. With David away for much of the morning and later choosing not to trade actively, the main theme was avoiding forced setups in what he described as a scrappy and trappy market.

Market conditions

• David described the session as having “scrappy” rhythms.

• He later added that conditions felt “scrappy” and “trappy.”

• He said he was comfortable remaining on the sidelines.

• No specific PTGDavid trades or winning trade results were reported in the room chat.

Positive takeaway

• The strongest decision of the day was capital preservation.

• Instead of manufacturing trades, David stayed patient and protected capital.

• The session reinforced that avoiding low-quality opportunities can be a successful trading outcome.

Trading lesson

• Being out of rhythm is a valid reason to reduce activity.

• Choppy or trap-heavy conditions often reward patience more than aggression.

• Traders do not need to participate simply because the market is open.

• Preserving mental and financial capital keeps traders ready for better opportunities.