The ES and NQ had a nice bounce, and the question today is, can they follow through on the upside? I think so, but there have been a lot of false starts just below 7600 and above.

Our lean: That said, it is the week 2 Friday options expiration, so I expect it to be more of a two-way trade, but there are tons of stops above. The problem is one word: volume, or the lack thereof.

HandelStats Today’s Levels: Here

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Futures are flat, wit no major data on tap.

SKHYV starts trading today - the largest first-time foreign listing ever.

Positioning is no different than its been: Positive SPX gamma for all nearby strikes. Single stocks on net hold positive gamma. This likely means dips bought, rallies sold. 7,500 remains a key strike, and support for today. Resistance is at 7,550, 7,575 and 7,600. Vols have sunk, which adds some positive upside drift, too. Those vols, as we discuss below, are leaking to a lower bound for SPX.

Our risk flag was thrown last week when COR1M went <8, and that low correlation remains in tact. With earnings coming up, that is going to hold up single stock vols, too, keeping correlation (COR1M) down. On the other side of that equation is SPX index vol, which is being punished. Today we see the VIX back to 1-month lows, for example. More interestingly, SPX term structure is slinking to major lows as you can see below. In fact, Monday is at 8% (!) which is generally low, but sticks out even more given the Iran situation. Further, we see all ATM IVs for the next week in the 10s. Granted, the weekend effect is leaning on these a bit, but we have CPI, PPI, retail sales and OPEX all next week. So these vols, which will likely rise after the weekend, they are still quite low.

To put this into context, 5-day realized vol is ~8% and 1-month is 15%. So these ATM IVs for the SPX are pricing in fresh lows. Meanwhile, NDX 5-day realized is 22%. Here you see the QQQ term structure is showing IV in the 20s.

What does all this mean? First, SPX IV is looking priced-for-perfection, and continues to be quite disconnected to Nasdaq vol. Today is likely not the day this matters, but it is a signal that being short SPX options is not presenting much of a positive risk-reward. One could make the case that shorting some near term QQQ options and hedging with long SPY options here makes some sense.

This low SPX vol dynamic all probably matters a lot more next week, when fresh data hits with an OPEX. As discussed here, we've been playing with short dated put fly lottos - trades which have not paid off this week (fortunately they cost next to nothing). This very low SPX IV, if it sticks into next week, will probably make the entry of some longer dated SPX puts more enticing.

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ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7575.50. This is the key level for today’s directional bias. Holding above 7575.50 keeps the short-term outlook bullish and favors buying pullbacks, while a sustained move below it would shift momentum back toward the downside.

ES is currently trading near 7588.75, directly at the 7588.75 pivot and just below resistance at 7595.00. Acceptance above 7595.00 would strengthen the upside and target 7630.50, today’s upper range target. A clean breakout above 7630.50 could extend toward 7682.25.

On the downside, initial support is at the bull/bear line of 7575.50. Losing that level would expose 7520.50, today’s lower range target. A break and hold below 7520.50 would signal greater weakness and could open a move toward 7468.75.

Overall, the ES remains bullish while holding above 7575.50, but buyers still need to clear 7595.00 to confirm upside continuation. Below 7575.50, the market becomes vulnerable to a retest of 7520.50.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 29840.00. This is the key level controlling today’s directional bias. NQ is trading near 29846.75, just above the line, so the market is attempting to maintain a bullish posture, but the margin is very narrow.

Holding above 29840.00 keeps the upside open toward 29937.00 and 29993.50. Acceptance above 29993.50 would strengthen the rally and target 30279.25, today’s upper range target. Above that, additional resistance is located at 30413.00 and 30692.25.

A failure to hold 29840.00 would shift the intraday bias bearish. Initial downside risk would be a return toward 29400.75, today’s lower range target. This is an important support area based on the recent session lows. A sustained break below 29400.75 could accelerate selling toward 28987.50.

Overall, NQ remains cautiously bullish while holding above 29840.00, but price is close enough to the bull/bear line that traders should expect two-way action. Bulls need a clean move through 29937.00 and 29993.50 to confirm stronger upside momentum. Bears regain control below 29840.00, with 29400.75 as the primary downside objective.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, July 9, 2026

Thursday developed into a strong bullish Cycle Day 1 session. Buyers controlled the market from the overnight session through most of the regular trading day, while the main lesson was to remain flexible when price action does not follow the typical cycle pattern.

Overnight and Opening Context

• The key 7525 “Line in the Sand” held firmly overnight.

• Buyers pushed price into the 7555 target outlined in the Daily Trade Strategy.

• The projected Cycle Day 1 average decline into the 7467–7470 zone had already been completed during the prior Cycle Day 3 selloff.

• Although the official Cycle Day 1 low had not yet been established, the market behaved as though the cycle low was already secure.

• David reminded traders that the three-day cycle is fluid and should not be treated as a rigid mechanical system.

Morning Session

• The market showed little to no expected Cycle Day 1 decline.

• The absence of meaningful selling pressure signaled strong buyer control.

• The session gradually shifted from a possible corrective day into an upside momentum rally.

• David identified “flexibility” as the main theme of the day.

• The PTG Large Trade Volume Indicator flashed green on MES, supporting the bullish tone.

• Traders also monitored the D-Level near 7575–7576 as an important upside reference.

Positive Trading Highlights

• The overnight bullish premise worked well, with 7525 holding and the 7555 target being reached.

• The Cycle Day 1 penetration level at 7578.39 was fulfilled.

• Buyers continued to push through successive upside targets.

• Orest reported that the PTG DV Strategy-Zone signals had generated approximately $1,000 in a prop account during the previous session.

• Orest also confirmed that his PTG charts and account connections were functioning properly after earlier technical issues.

• Traders who stayed aligned with the dominant trend had better opportunities than those attempting to repeatedly fade the rally.

Midday and Afternoon Development

• David described the morning as a very strong Cycle Day 1 session.

• The shallow or nonexistent decline confirmed that buyers had dominant control.

• Bulls continued “plowing” through upside levels during the afternoon.

• Midday volume became lackluster, reducing the available trading edge.

• David chose to step away rather than force trades during the low-volume period.

• The late session included a possible dip before another closing push, but summer trading rhythms created less predictable movement.

Trading Psychology and Discipline

• Traders were reminded that their responsibility is to prepare thoroughly and follow their rules.

• Market randomness is not something a trader can control.

• Nicholas handled a frustrating data connection issue constructively by deciding not to chase missed volatility.

• His plan was to process the disappointment and prepare properly for the following session.

• The room reinforced the value of staying emotionally controlled when technical problems or missed trades occur.

Key Lessons

• Remain flexible when the market does not follow the usual cycle expectation.

• A market that refuses to decline when a decline is expected is demonstrating strength.

• Price behavior should take priority over a rigid interpretation of the cycle.

• Shallow pullbacks often indicate that buyers remain firmly in control.

• Avoid forcing trades when volume declines and the edge disappears.

• Missing a trade is preferable to chasing price or trading emotionally.

• Preparation and disciplined execution matter more than the outcome of any individual trade.

Closing Perspective

• The session remained strongly bullish for most of the day.

• The Cycle Day 1 upside objective was successfully achieved.

• Late market-on-close indications shifted from a $2.2 billion sell imbalance to approximately a $1 billion buy imbalance.

• The rapid imbalance change reflected thinner and less predictable summer trading conditions.

• The best results came from following the bullish structure, adapting to the lack of selling pressure, and avoiding low-quality midday trades.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, July 10, 2026

Macro and Energy

• US stock futures are steady as traders weigh rising energy-market pressures.

• Gas and diesel prices are likely to remain elevated as refining margins surge.

• Higher fuel costs could tighten financial conditions and pressure transportation, industrial, and consumer-discretionary margins.

• Strait of Hormuz traffic is near a standstill again, though markets appear more accustomed to the disruption.

• Any renewed escalation could quickly lift inflation expectations and increase crude-driven volatility across markets.

Semiconductors and AI

• Wall Street is preparing for the large SK Hynix US listing, which could become a major catalyst for semiconductor stocks and sector ETFs.

• Strong demand may help stabilize chip-sector sentiment, while weak pricing could reinforce concerns about oversupply and slowing AI demand.

• Micron’s strong earnings beat provides a positive offset to recent weakness in memory stocks.

• The report supports the view that high-bandwidth memory demand tied to AI infrastructure remains resilient.

• Concerns remain that delayed AI profits at hyperscalers could trigger a broader repricing in mega-cap tech, cloud, software, and semiconductor names.

• NQ and ES remain vulnerable to sharp, stock-specific moves.

Federal Reserve

• Reports suggest major figures are joining Kevin Warsh’s Fed overhaul team.

• Markets may begin pricing possible changes to Fed communication, inflation targeting, and balance-sheet policy.

• A more hawkish or rules-based approach could lift yields and pressure growth stocks.

• Treasury yield-curve moves should be watched for early confirmation.

Today’s Calendar

• No major corporate earnings are scheduled today.

• Q2 earnings season begins next week.

• The US economic calendar is empty.

Volatility and Positioning

• Volatility remains steady but moderately elevated.

• The ES five-day average daily range increased to 87.50 points from 86.50.

• Summer trading can bring extended quiet periods, but geopolitical risks remain capable of triggering sudden volatility.

• Whale positioning is leaning bearish into the US open on light but elevated overnight large-trader volume.

ES Technical Outlook

• The intermediate-term downtrend channel top at 7595–7590 held Thursday’s high and the overnight high.

• A break above that zone could turn it into support and open a move through 7600 toward 7700.

• The ES 50-day moving average at 7506.25 held as support Thursday.

• A failure to hold the 50-day moving average could send ES back into the 7400s.

• Bears have room to work toward the short-term downtrend channel bottom at 7460–7455.

Key ES Levels

• Resistance: 7595–7590

• Higher resistance: 8080–8085

• Support: 7460–7455

• Lower support: 7210–7205

• Major lower support: 7195–7190