- The Opening Print
- Posts
- (Free) Executing Your Trading Plan; Navigating the Debt Ceiling
(Free) Executing Your Trading Plan; Navigating the Debt Ceiling
NVDA's earnings ramp the Nasdaq higher.
Danny Riley
May 25, 2023
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable.
Our View
There is an old saying that says, “execution is everything” and I for one agree. You can have the greatest trade ideas in the world, but it doesn't matter if you can't execute. We took pride at my S&P desk that we were good at executing futures and options orders. Putting the orders into the pit and getting it back as quickly as possible.
However, the execution I am talking about is actually following your trade idea and executing the order. Like my post on Twitter yesterday said, There are two basic rules about winning in a trade and in life: If you don't bet, you can't win and if you lose all your chips, you can't bet.
$ES $SPY $SPX #TradingRules
#Truth— MrTopStep (@MrTopStep)
1:49 PM • May 22, 2023
That said, I don't have a problem making the bet — my problem is I get impatient. The ES or NQ go my favored way, but then I exit too early and re-enter too early and up my size. I am not afraid to trade larger, but I usually do it when I lose focus of my original plan. I seriously compare it to when I was in 7th grade playing Nintendo video games, but the difference here is it’s thousands of dollars.
I’m sure I’m not the only one out there doing this and while I’m not here to share my misery — I’m saying it because I hope sharing my struggles will help someone identify their own — I will say it's something that I am constantly working on.
Our Lean — Danny’s Key Trade
This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.
To get this delivered daily, please consider upgrading to a paid membership.
MiM and Daily Recap
The ES sold off down to 4137 at 9:28 a.m. on Globex and opened Wednesday's regular session at 4140. The ES sold off down to 4117 at 11:04 and while there were some small upticks on the way down, it was a very choppy downside move. After the 4117 low, the ES back-and-filled for a bit, rallied up to 4134.75 at 11:28, then sold off down to 4117.50 at 11:46 as House Speaker McCarthy started talking about the budget negotiations. After the rally, the ES slowly sold back down to a new low at 4114 at 12:32, rallied up to 4131 at 1:45 and then fell back down to 4139 at 3:21.
The ES rallied up to a new high at 4143.75 at 3:38 and sold off down to 4127.50 levels at 3:48 before trading 4132 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.4 billion to sell. It dropped down to 4123.25 at 3:53 and traded 4126.75 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES chopped in a narrow range and then rallied all the way up to 4151 and settled at 4150.75 after Nvidia reported better than expected earnings.
In the end, everything was headline driven. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was weak, closing lower by about 32 points or 0.80%. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was higher at 1.86 million.
Technical Edge
NYSE Breadth: 24% Upside Volume
Advance/Decline: 22% Advance
VIX: ~$19.50
SPY
Held $410 so well, but bulls really need to regain $415 to $416
Upside Levels: $415 to 416.50, $418.50, $420 to $420.50
Downside Levels: $410, $407.25
S&P 500 — ES
To receive access to the ES, SPX, NQ, QQQ, DXY and today’s individual stocks, please consider upgrading to a paid membership.
Bold are the trades with recent updates.
Italics show means the trade is closed.
Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)
** = previously mentioned trade setup we are stalking.
Open Positions
Down to Runners in GE, CAH, LLY, ABBV, AAPL, MCD & BRK.B. Now Add META, AVGO and UBER.
Premium
Premium
Premium
Premium
Go-To Watchlist
premium only
Economic Calendar
