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Four-Day Tape, Five Days of Trade: Iran’s Got the Cards and the ES Still Has Buyers

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Four-day weeks are tough because they cram five days’ worth of trade into four. I’m not sure what’s up with the US / Iran deal, but it sure seems like Iran has the upper hand. One of the things they want is the US out of the Middle East, and personally, I don’t think all our allies want the US to start back up because they know they will get bombed, and there is little the US can do once the missiles start flying. Most of our bases are in ruins, and if we start back up, it will be mostly airpower, and I don’t think that’s going to do what’s needed to knock Iran out. Plain and simple, Trump is stuck with negotiating a deal most people don’t want.

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HIDDEN KKKKKKKKKKKK

Dan @ GTC Traders

Multi-Strats Assist in an Environment That is As Hard as It Gets

As the title of this article suggests? This environment is as difficult as it gets.

It is our belief that Interest Rates are in firm control of markets. As we have long outlined, we have arrived at that part of the cycle where interest rates have to adjust for the obvious higher inflation prints. One of which has already occurred, and more that are coming.

Equities markets are rallying on financial conditions … again … as we have long outlined … that are far too loose from a monetary policy standpoint.

The crack spread continues to run higher.

Again … as we have long outlined.

And we see that TED spreads are showing increasing credit stress …

AA Corporate Yield – Declared Overnight SOFR Yield
2020 to Present

At the same time, we are in asset bubble with valuations that are extremely stretched to the high side.

Again … as we …

Ok, I’ll spare you any more the vainglorious ‘as we have long outlined’ comments

We have a political narrative that seems to change every 12 hours.

Again, this environment? Nearly as tough as it gets.

The only way we are successfully navigating the macro landscape as of late is via our multi-strat portfolio.

An account that is dedicated to continually hold long positions, that we will beta weight the deltas of those assets to the SPY and hedge up at the first sign of trouble.

And on the other side of the spectrum? A separate account that … at least at the moment … is wholly dedicated to shorting the market at key times of stress, using a hybrid barbell strategy.

This is the advantage of running a multi-strat, where the very thesis of the strategies employed are non-correlated to one another. As long as we get our periodicity ‘shift’ right and execute well maintaining positive expectancy in both strategies … having an account dedicated to long positions, and a separate account dedicated to finding shorts positions?

That’s it. That’s the secret. That’s how we are printing as linear returns as we have been.

In addition … in an environment that is as difficult as it gets?

It’s allowing us to sleep very well at night. Anything can happen in the time that it takes for us to execute. But at the same time we don’t have to step away from the markets worrying about having one binary, directional position.

Until next time, stay safe, and trade well ...

I want to explain something: I am writing the OP from my brother’s hospital room in Ft. Myers, FL. He’s on a ventilator, so if things seem a little off, they are. I can’t do a big recap because I have no chart, but I’ll do my best under the circumstances.

The ES had a 7524.25 to 7570.25 Globex trading range and opened Wednesday’s 9:30 ET regular session at 7542.00, up 3 points or +0.03%.

After the open, the ES sold off down to the 7517 area at 10:45, rallied up to the 7539.50 level at 11:50, and sold back off to the low at 7517.00 at 12:05. It then rallied 25 points up to the 7542 area at 2:05, pulled back to 7532.50 at 2:55, and then rallied up to a new day-session high at 7552.00. The ES traded 7537.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $3 billion to sell and traded 7540.00 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 7556.00 and settled at 7540.00, up 3 points or +0.03%. The NQ settled at 30,047.25, down 26.25 points or -0.09%, the YM settled at 50,728, up 181 points or +0.36%, and the RTY settled at 2,919.94, down 0.60 points or 0.02% on the day.

In the end, it was a big rotation day. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it shook off the early session but didn’t act particularly great. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at 1.227 million contracts traded.

It’s going to be hard for me to write much more. I don’t think all the prices and times in the recap are spot on, but I think you get the picture.

MiM

The MOC opened with a clear sell-side imbalance and never really lost that character. At 15:50, the market showed a modest $312 million net sell imbalance, but by 15:51 it expanded sharply to $3.624 billion, with $1.746 billion to buy against $5.369 billion to sell. That opening transition was important because both the dollar lean and symbol lean confirmed the same direction: All Markets were leaning -75.5% by dollars and -61.1% by symbols, showing broad sell pressure rather than a single-name distortion.

The pressure then intensified into 15:52, reaching a peak net sell imbalance near $6.396 billion, with more than $10.2 billion on the sell side. From there, the imbalance gradually moderated, but it remained firmly negative through the close. By 16:00, the total imbalance had improved to -$1.726 billion, and by 16:01, it faded further to -$667 million. The transition was therefore not a buy reversal, but a sell imbalance that was worked down into the close.

Sector action was overwhelmingly negative. Communication Services showed the most extreme wholesale sell lean at -94.4%, followed by Health Care at -87.9%, Energy at -85.6%, Industrials at -85.3%, Financials at -81.2%, Materials at -80.6%, and Consumer Discretionary at -79.0%. These are notable because anything beyond -66% reflects stronger institutional or wholesale selling pressure. Consumer Staples sat right on the threshold at -66.7%, while Real Estate at -59.0%, Utilities at -63.4%, and Information Technology at -61.1% were still sell-biased but more rotational.

On the single-stock side, the largest sell imbalances were concentrated in major index names. NVDA led with $347.09 million to sell, followed by AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, GOOG, AVGO, XOM, BRK.B, V, LLY, and MA. Buy interest was more selective, led by AAPL at $291.11 million, with TGT, ACN, NXPI, AMT, QCOM, PDD, ADI, HD, and BAC also showing demand.

Overall, this was a broad sell-biased MOC, led by mega-cap technology, discretionary, communications, financials, industrials, and health care, with only scattered defensive and single-name buy rather than outright accumulation.

You can watch this week’s events on YouTube or inside the Pit Room.

Replay:


Fair Values for May 28, 2026

  • S&P: 15.04

  • NQ: 69.6

  • Dow: 57.18

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, May 27, 2026

NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 136 / 39
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 425 / 106
NYSE TRIN: 0.93
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.61

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, May 22, 2026

NYSE Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 216 / 206
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 555 / 536
NYSE TRIN: 1.18
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.22

S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)

BTS are daily generated levels created using a combination of proprietary calculations and AI to define an upper range target and a lower range target, split by a bull/bear line. You receive daily charts along with clear descriptions of each level to help guide your trading.

Take a Free Premium Trial to see them in action.

Today’s Economic Calendar

Earnings:

PTG Room Summary For Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Wednesday’s PTG session was a strong Cycle Day 3 / cycle-dynamic teaching day, with David framing the market around clear reference levels and the need to let price prove itself. The day started with overnight target achievement, moved into a controlled downside test, and finished with bulls successfully defending the key low and rallying.

Overnight Setup and Market Tone

  • ES reached the 7555 overnight price target and then backed off, making 7555 an important reference for the day.

  • NQ overshot its target, with David noting that tech continued to make new all-time highs.

  • David emphasized that shorts were continuing to get punished, reflecting the strength behind the broader upside momentum.

  • The early message was clear: the market was strong, but traders still needed to avoid emotional chasing and wait for actionable setups.

Opening Plan

  • David’s initial posture was to look for sell opportunities on bounces.

  • This gave the room a disciplined framework: use strength into resistance or bounce areas as potential opportunity rather than reacting late.

  • The plan was especially important because NQ was very strong, while ES had already reached and backed off from its overnight target.

Morning Technical Issues

  • The room experienced some audio and chart disruptions during the morning.

  • Members reported issues with sound, charts, and needing to refresh.

  • David worked through the platform problems, and once the room stabilized, he refocused traders on the active market structure.

Active Trading Sandbox

  • David identified the current sandbox as 7530–7550.

  • This range gave traders a practical intraday framework for reading acceptance, rejection, and rotation.

  • Rather than forcing trades outside the structure, the sandbox helped define where price was likely to rotate and where confirmation mattered.

Key Downside Test

  • By midday, David noted a successful test of the 7517 low.

  • He also warned that the market was still vulnerable to a break lower unless bulls stepped up.

  • This was an important moment because the level itself was not enough; traders needed to observe whether buyers would defend it or whether sellers would force continuation.

Positive Trade Opportunity

  • The best trade read came from the hold near 7517 / Cycle Day 1 low, followed by the rally.

  • Bulls successfully defended the key low, creating a constructive long-side response for traders who waited for confirmation.

  • This was a good example of trading the reaction at a reference level, not simply guessing before the level was tested.

Afternoon Resolution

  • David later confirmed that bulls had done the job by holding the CD1 low and rallying.

  • That afternoon rally validated the earlier warning that buyers needed to step in.

  • The session resolved as a clean example of market structure doing what it was supposed to do: test the downside, hold the key reference, and rotate higher.

Cycle Day Lesson

  • David described the session as a perfect cycle dynamic.

  • He encouraged traders to compare the day’s action with the Cycle Day explainer video.

  • The main lesson was that Cycle Day structure can help traders stay patient, objective, and prepared for likely market rhythms.

Main Takeaways

  • Respect the targets: ES hit 7555 overnight, making that level meaningful for the day’s structure.

  • Do not chase strength: Even with NQ making new highs, the better approach was to wait for location and confirmation.

  • Define the sandbox: The 7530–7550 area helped traders organize the session.

  • Watch the key low: The 7517 / CD1 low test became the major decision point.

  • Trade the response: The positive opportunity came after buyers defended the low and price rallied.

  • Trust the process: The day reinforced David’s core lesson of using reference levels, Cycle Day structure, and confirmation before acting..

DTG Room Preview Thursday, May 28, 2026

Macro Focus

  • US equity futures are lower as traders digest elevated volatility, geopolitical risk, and a heavy economic calendar.

  • The key macro focus is the 8:30am ET data slate, including Core PCE, GDP, jobless claims, durable goods, and personal income/spending.

  • Rate path uncertainty remains tied to sticky inflation and cautious central bank commentary.

Geopolitical Risk

  • Renewed US–Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz are driving a modest risk-off tone.

  • Brent crude is up more than 2% as traders price in potential supply disruption risk.

  • Energy volatility remains the dominant near-term market catalyst.

Market Drivers

  • The AI and mega-cap tech trade continues to support broader sentiment, though market leadership remains narrow.

  • Snowflake rallied after stronger earnings, while Amazon and Meta remain relative strength standouts.

  • Salesforce’s softer outlook highlights fragility beneath the surface of mega-cap leadership.

Risk Assets

  • Bitcoin is down more than 3%, reflecting pressure on speculative assets.

  • Gold is pulling back sharply, suggesting some safety hedges are being unwound despite geopolitical risk.

  • Elevated VIX levels point to caution, but not yet panic.

Today’s Calendar

  • 8:30am ET: Core PCE, GDP, GDP Price Index, jobless claims, durable goods, and personal income/spending.

  • 8:55am ET: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks.

  • 10:00am ET: New Home Sales.

  • 12:00pm ET: Crude Oil Inventories.

  • 3:00pm ET: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks.

Earnings Watch

  • Premarket: BBY, BURL, DLTR, HRL, LI, CM, RY, TD, and XPEV.

  • After the close: ADSK, COST, DELL, NTAP, and VSAT.

  • Single-stock volatility remains elevated as earnings reactions continue to drive rotation.

Volatility / Flow

  • Volatility remains elevated, with the ES 5-day average daily range at 74.75 points.

  • Whale bias is bearish into the 8:30am ET economic data on elevated overnight large trader volume.

ES Levels

  • Key battleground: 7566/71, the former short-term uptrend channel top.

  • Holding above 7566/71 keeps bulls in control with blue-sky potential.

  • Rejection at 7566/71 keeps bears focused on support at 7490/95.

  • Additional trendline supports: 7420/25 and 7350/55.

  • Long-term moving averages remain bullish, with the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!