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Forget the September Rally — Weak Bonds and $91 Oil Has Us Selling the Rips
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I'm not saying the game is over for some beginning of September buying, but with the US and Iran attacking each other and bonds falling out of bed, and oil at $91.00, it definitely changes the ES and NQ playbook.
It was too late for me because the OP was already sent out, but Handelstats said his stats showed the first trading day of September, when it falls on a Tuesday, was down 6 in a row, and Jeff Hirsch from the Stock Trader's Almanac posted this on Twitter:
September’s historical patterns since 1950 are decidedly bearish. The chart shows how the major indexes have tended to struggle as the month progresses, with losses accelerating after mid-September. By the end of the month, the “All Years” pattern has declined approximately 0.6% to 0.8% across the major averages.
Midterm-election years show an even more pronounced pattern of weakness late in the month. September starts relatively well in midterm years, with S&P 500 and DJIA outperforming their longer-term patterns through roughly the first 10–12 trading days. However, that strength has faded quickly. By the final week, midterm-year losses steepen dramatically, particularly for Russell 1000 and NASDAQ.
The contrast is especially notable in the final trading days. Midterm-year NASDAQ and Russell 1000 performance falls to around –1.6% and –1.8%, respectively, compared with more modest declines in “All Years.” The historical message is clear: September weakness tends to build as the month progresses, and midterm years have often delivered an especially difficult finish.
Similar to what I wrote about, but I left out two game-changing words... bonds and oil. But as the old saying goes... “There’s no crying in baseball!”
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
The ES traded in a 7708.00 to 7640.50 Globex trading range and traded 7647.00 on Tuesday’s regular-session open, down 51 points, or -0.67%.
After the open, the ES traded 7650.75, sold off 12 points down to 7638.75, made two higher lows at 7641.75 at 9:45 and 7644.50 at 10:00, rallied 28.50 points up to 7673.00 at 10:30, pulled back to 7668.00, made a lower high at 7670.50, and sold off 28 points down to 7642.50 at 12:30 as the U.S. struck military targets in Iran.
After the low, the ES made a small bounce and then sold off down to a new low at 7635.00 at 1:15, rallied 14 points up to 7649.00 at 1:30, sold off 27.50 points down to 7621.50 at 2:45, and that’s when I posted this in the MrTopStep chat:
IMPRO: Dboy: [2:57:09 PM]: I think you have to worry about a pop on the close.
IMPRO: Dboy: [2:59:31 PM]: Still early, but I had 7620 and that could be it.
The ES rallied 21.50 points up to 7643.00 at 3:15, sold off 10 points down to 7633.00 at 3:45, and traded 7639.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $500 million to buy. It traded 7644.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7648.75 and settled at 7647.50, down 51.50 points or -0.67%. The NQ settled at 29,139.00, down 374 points or 11.27%; the YM settled at 52,847.00, up 19 points or +0.04%; and the RTY settled at 2926.20, down 32.50 points or -1.10% on the day.
In the end, the weaker bond market and high crude oil prices threw a monkey wrench into the first trading day of September. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the ES and NQ were weak. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.54 million contracts traded.
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🔄 Transition: Cycle Day 3 → Cycle Day 1
Reset…Reload…Re-engage.
CD3 CYCLE is a distant bragging-rights memory now as it fades into the rearview mirror.
Inventory clears.
Weak hands get rinsed.
Late shorts exhale like they just dodged traffic.
Late longs quietly Google “career alternatives.”
And just like that —
🎬 Cue the bell.
Brand. New. Cycle Day 1.
This is not continuation energy. This is foundation-pouring, blueprint-drawing, steel-beam-installing energy.
Cycle Day 1 doesn’t chase.
Cycle Day 1 builds.
It’s mechanical. It’s calculated. It tests Average Decline Levels with surgical intent. It forces emotional traders to show their cards early — and usually fold by noon.
This is where professionals:
✔️ Let price come to them
✔️ Let structure define bias
✔️ Let risk dictate size
✔️ Let patience do the heavy lifting
No headline chasing.
No social-media-induced FOMO.
No “this feels like” trades.
Just levels.
Structure.
Execution.
Volatility may expand. But so does our edge — because we operate from preparation, not prediction.
PTG doesn’t panic. PTG positions.
Welcome to Cycle Day 1.
Hard hats on.
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The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan
1️⃣ Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force
Think current — not prediction.
When price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue — we align.
Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.
When structure flips?
Same process. Opposite direction.
No emotion.
No hero trades.
Just flow.
Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave — you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work. 🌊
The market rewards traders who ride momentum, not those who try to predict the tide.
2️⃣ Trade Location, Not Emotion
Where you trade matters more than when you trade.
The PTG approach is built on high-probability locations, not impulsive entries.
We focus on:
Support / Resistance Structure
Stacker Zones
Premium vs. Discount
ATR Pullbacks
Liquidity Targets
When price reaches these locations, we engage with purpose — not impulse.
Amateurs chase price.
Professionals wait for price to come to them.
Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. 🎯
Patience builds consistency.
Consistency builds confidence.
Confidence builds longevity.
The Bottom Line
Pillar #1: Trade with the dominant force
Pillar #2: Trade from advantageous location
Master these two principles and everything else becomes execution.
Simple. Structured. Repeatable.
The Toolbox Matters — But the Hand Using It Matters More
The PTG Trader Toolbox isn’t just well-equipped — it’s built for every market condition you’ll encounter.
Yes… even that strange, rarely-used wrench you didn’t know you’d eventually need.
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Inside the PTG Member’s Area, the resources run deep.
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Keeping the community aligned with what actually matters — price, structure, and discipline.
Because in the end…
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Mastery does.
🎯 Cycle Day 1 Focus
Scenarios for today’s trade
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance north of 7645 ±5
Upside objectives:
• 7655
• 7665
• 7675
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance south of 7645 ±5
Downside objectives:
• 7635
• 7625
• 7610
📊 Key Reference Levels
• PVA High Edge: 7658
• PVA Low Edge: 7633
• Prior POC: 7645
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
— PTG
The MOC opened with a sizable sell program, the all-market imbalance stood at +$220.2 million, with $3.7 billion to buy versus $3.5 billion to sell. The dollar lean was only +51.5% and the symbol lean +52.9%, making the opening flow highly rotational rather than directional. Nasdaq was the strongest venue at +$627.0 million, while the S&P 500 showed +$263.2 million and the NYSE was already leaning the other way at -$406.3 million.
The tone changed sharply after 15:52. The imbalance flipped to -$433.0 million at 15:53 and then exploded to -$2.2 billion at 15:54 as sell orders surged to nearly $5.0 billion. Selling remained dominant into the bell, with the final 16:00 imbalance at -$810.0 million. The closing dollar lean reached -74.2%, a particularly notable reading because anything beyond -66.0% indicates a more wholesale-style market sell rather than simple rotation. The symbol lean finished at -63.5%, showing broad participation but stopping just short of the wholesale threshold.
Sector flows were highly divided. Communication Services was the standout buyer at +$533.0 million with an exceptionally strong +90.9% dollar lean and +75.0% symbol lean. Utilities also showed wholesale buying at +75.9%, while Consumer Staples reached +71.6%. On the sell side, Health Care posted -$292.9 million with a -69.5% dollar lean, Energy registered -67.0%, and Basic Materials was -100.0%, though on only one symbol. Information Technology carried the largest net sector selling at -$353.8 million.
Among individual names, the strongest buy imbalances included MU +$276.8 million, META +$174.4 million, GOOGL +$166.9 million, SNDK +$159.2 million, and V +$126.3 million. Major sell imbalances were concentrated in AAPL at $151.3 million, MSFT $148.2 million, CSCO $104.6 million, JNJ $94.2 million, and AMD $82.0 million. The session ultimately evolved from rotation into a broad late-day sell program.
Daily Market Recap
For Tuesday, September 1, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 38% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 31% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 34% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 30% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 27% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 48 / 181
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 66 / 317
NYSE TRIN: 0.72
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.82
Weekly Breadth Data
For the week ending Friday, August 28, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 45% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 158 / 150
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 420 / 371
NYSE TRIN: 0.87
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.55
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Premarket Overview
Stock futures are softer as a stronger dollar, elevated global yields, and renewed Fed tightening concerns weigh on risk sentiment.
A broad bond selloff and continued geopolitical tension are keeping ES and NQ highly sensitive to moves in yields and crude.
Oil is pushing toward $95 as Middle East supply risks increase, adding pressure to the inflation outlook and consumer-sensitive sectors.
Tech remains a potential offset, with Dell rallying on record AI-server orders and Nvidia reportedly nearing a $14B Hugging Face deal.
Overall conditions remain fragile and headline-driven, with yields, crude, Fed commentary, and geopolitical developments the main intraday catalysts.
Earnings
Premarket: NIO
After the close: AVGO, FIVE, HPE, NTAP, SNOW
Thursday morning: CIEN
Economic Calendar
8:15am ET: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
10:00am ET: Factory Orders
10:30am ET: Crude Oil Inventories
2:00pm ET: Fed Beige Book
ES Volatility
ES volatility increased on Tuesday’s selloff.
The 5-day average daily range rose to 62.25 points from 55.75.
Geopolitical risks, Treasury and Fed comments, and President Trump social media posts remain potential volatility catalysts.
No whale bias this morning due to light overnight large-trader volume.
ES Technicals
ES reached multi-week trendline support on Tuesday and held for a bounce, which is constructive for bulls.
A clean break below 7615/12 would weaken the setup and could open a move toward the 7500 area over the next couple of sessions.
The 50-day MA at 7605.25 remains loose support and is in play today.
Trendline resistance remains at 7858/63.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7858/63
Support: 7615/12, 7470/755, 7300/95, 7106/01