Fed's Powell, Jobs Report in Focus This Week

Welcome to April, Welcome to Q2

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Our View

It’s the start of Q2 and April, so I am going to keep it light today. 

The ES and NQ are still riding a massive winning streak and have now rallied in 5 straight months. Amid that run, From the October low, they are up 28.8% and 30.6%, respectively. 

Can the ES continue going up? I think so, but don’t think it will just go straight up without some drops/pullbacks. 

This week there are 13 separate economic reports and 17 Fed governors — and Jerome Powell speaking. This is what I call a Fed overload. While there is a high level of Fed speak, the highlight of the first trading week of the new quarter will be fresh readings on job openings and wage data. The biggest headline of the week will be the March jobs report, which is due out Friday morning. 

In addition to the jobs report, there is also a high-level economic report from the services and manufacturing parts of the economy. 

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade

This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.

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MiM and Daily Recap

ES recap — Thursday

(Same as Friday) 

The ES traded in a narrow range from 5301 to 5312.50 on total Globex volume of 206k and opened Thursday's final trading session of Q1 at 5309.50. 

After the open, the ES traded 5311.50 sold off down to 5305, rallied up to 5314.50, dropped back down to the 5308.75 level, popped back up to 5315.00, pulled back under the VWAP to a 5307.25 double bottom at 10:28 and then rallied up to a new high at 5316.25 at 11:34. From there, it pulled back to the VWAP at 5309.50 — that’s right, an 11.25 point trading range in the first 3 hours with most of it in a 3 to 5 point range. 

After the high, the ES slid down to the 5305 level at 1:38, then after the low, the ES rallied up to 5318.75 at 3:04, dropped down to 5311.00, and then rallied back up to a lower high at 5321.00 at 3:31. From there, the ES dropped down to 5312.50 at 2:45 and traded 5313.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $527 million to buy and traded 5304.25 on the 4:00 cash close, down 4 points or -0.08%. The NQ settled at 18,465.00, down 38.75 points or -0.21%, the RTY settled at 2,145.20, up 6.80 points or +0.32%.

In the end, it was a long day of nothingness. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was a low volume, sideways-to-up chop all day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the low side: 207k traded on Globex and 1.189 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.396 million contracts traded. 

MIM — Thursday

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 66% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 53% Upside Volume

  • Advance/Decline: 62% Advance

  • VIX: ~13.00

S&P 500 — ES Futures

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Economic Calendar

For a more complete Economic Calendar see: https://mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar/

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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